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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2025 Nov 15 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
60
% |
55
% |
CLASS X |
20
% |
15
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2025 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
35
% |
40
% |
MINOR |
25
% |
30
% |
SEVERE |
05
% |
05
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
10
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
30
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
55
% |
65
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
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This is an AI Free Zone: Text created by Large Language Models is spreading across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot 4274 erupted again yesterday, producing a powerful X4-class solar flare. Unlike previous explosions, this one was not directly facing Earth. Most of the CME will miss our planet. Even so, a glancing blow is possible on Nov. 16th. NOAA forecasters have issued a G1-class geomagnetic storm watch for Nov. 16th and 17th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
WHAT IS A 'KEOGRAM'? Answer: A way to display entire geomagnetic storms at a glance. It gets its name from the Inuit word for auroras -- Keoeeit. Daniel Bush of Albany, Missouri, created these keograms to compare the three great geomagnetic storms of Solar Cycle 25:
Researchers in the 1970s adopted the term keogram to honor the Arctic peoples who lived under the lights. It distills an entire night of auroral motion into a single strip of brightness. Watch this animation to see how a keogram is made.
"I was very fortunate weatherwise here in Missouri to be able to record the three strongest geomagnetic storms of Solar Cycle 25 ... so far," says Bush. "They were all great. But one can tell just by comparing these keograms that the May 2024 storm was in a league all of its own with bright energetic substorms and dusk to dawn intensity."
Solar Cycle 25 peaked in 2024, but it is far from finished. For the next few years it will slowly decline. That's important because, statistically speaking, the declining phases of solar cycles are when some of the strongest storms occur. The Halloween Storms of 2003 and the Veterans Day storm of 2025 are good examples. We predict that Bush's keogram will grow even longer in 2026. Stay tuned!
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
ARCTIC NIGHT SPACE PENDENT: Are you looking for a far-out Christmas gift? Consider the Arctic Night Pendant . It has flown to the edge of space onboard an Earth to Sky cosmic ray research balloon, more than 105,546 ft high:
You can have it for $99.95. The heart-shaped pendant displays a loving pair of howling Arctic wolves, a shooting star, the full Moon, and rippling sheets of aurora borealis. It comes with a greeting card showing the pendent in flight and telling the story of its trip to the edge of space and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 13, 2025, the network reported 39 fireballs.
(20 sporadics, 18 Northern Taurids, 1 Leonid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On November 15, 2025 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2025 VY3 |
2025-Nov-10 |
5.4 LD |
9.4 |
15 |
| 2025 VY1 |
2025-Nov-10 |
9.1 LD |
21.6 |
27 |
| 2025 VR |
2025-Nov-10 |
2.8 LD |
10.8 |
15 |
| 2025 VT |
2025-Nov-10 |
9.1 LD |
5.1 |
26 |
| 2025 VK1 |
2025-Nov-10 |
9.6 LD |
15.2 |
14 |
| 2020 VK4 |
2025-Nov-10 |
16.4 LD |
3.8 |
9 |
| 2025 VU3 |
2025-Nov-11 |
5.3 LD |
8 |
12 |
| 2025 VX |
2025-Nov-11 |
1.2 LD |
6.4 |
14 |
| 2012 VC26 |
2025-Nov-11 |
13.3 LD |
6.4 |
6 |
| 2025 VA3 |
2025-Nov-11 |
11.2 LD |
20.5 |
20 |
| 2025 VM3 |
2025-Nov-11 |
2.2 LD |
16.7 |
13 |
| 2025 UP9 |
2025-Nov-11 |
18 LD |
14 |
46 |
| 2025 VB3 |
2025-Nov-12 |
13.5 LD |
3.6 |
10 |
| 2025 VL3 |
2025-Nov-12 |
0.3 LD |
15.5 |
5 |
| 2025 VX3 |
2025-Nov-12 |
5.5 LD |
14.2 |
14 |
| 2025 VJ3 |
2025-Nov-12 |
4.7 LD |
12.9 |
42 |
| 2025 VW |
2025-Nov-12 |
5.4 LD |
7.1 |
16 |
| 2025 VN2 |
2025-Nov-12 |
13.4 LD |
5.2 |
16 |
| 2025 VC2 |
2025-Nov-12 |
8.1 LD |
9.2 |
14 |
| 2025 VZ3 |
2025-Nov-12 |
13.2 LD |
9.4 |
25 |
| 2025 VS3 |
2025-Nov-13 |
0.5 LD |
11.4 |
11 |
| 2025 VT2 |
2025-Nov-13 |
0.6 LD |
14.1 |
7 |
| 2025 VV1 |
2025-Nov-13 |
6.2 LD |
11.3 |
30 |
| 2025 VV3 |
2025-Nov-13 |
0.2 LD |
20.7 |
7 |
| 2025 VR1 |
2025-Nov-13 |
3.1 LD |
8.1 |
11 |
| 2025 VS2 |
2025-Nov-14 |
0.9 LD |
6.6 |
4 |
| 2025 US11 |
2025-Nov-14 |
12.7 LD |
8.1 |
21 |
| 2025 VA2 |
2025-Nov-14 |
5.1 LD |
5.8 |
8 |
| 2019 VL5 |
2025-Nov-14 |
14.7 LD |
9.1 |
24 |
| 2025 VD1 |
2025-Nov-14 |
3.4 LD |
6.6 |
14 |
| 2025 VS1 |
2025-Nov-14 |
4 LD |
9.8 |
16 |
| 2025 VT3 |
2025-Nov-15 |
3 LD |
7.6 |
14 |
| 2025 VQ2 |
2025-Nov-15 |
3.3 LD |
5.8 |
11 |
| 2025 VN1 |
2025-Nov-16 |
4.6 LD |
10.7 |
19 |
| 2025 VW3 |
2025-Nov-16 |
1.5 LD |
14 |
10 |
| 2022 FG4 |
2025-Nov-17 |
18.7 LD |
22.2 |
105 |
| 2025 VC4 |
2025-Nov-18 |
5.2 LD |
10 |
13 |
| 2025 VP1 |
2025-Nov-18 |
1.5 LD |
8.2 |
12 |
| 3361 |
2025-Nov-19 |
14.8 LD |
9.1 |
439 |
| 2025 VO2 |
2025-Nov-19 |
14.7 LD |
5.7 |
22 |
| 2025 VK2 |
2025-Nov-19 |
8.1 LD |
15.1 |
22 |
| 2013 NJ4 |
2025-Nov-20 |
12.6 LD |
6.4 |
12 |
| 2025 VE2 |
2025-Nov-21 |
13.8 LD |
1.7 |
14 |
| 2025 VO1 |
2025-Nov-21 |
2.6 LD |
9.3 |
17 |
| 516155 |
2025-Nov-24 |
12.5 LD |
16.7 |
338 |
| 2020 WM |
2025-Nov-24 |
17.4 LD |
11.8 |
36 |
| 2025 VP2 |
2025-Nov-25 |
6.6 LD |
8.5 |
50 |
| 2019 UT6 |
2025-Nov-25 |
6.2 LD |
12.6 |
146 |
| 2021 WR |
2025-Nov-26 |
12 LD |
9.4 |
31 |
| 2018 WG2 |
2025-Nov-27 |
13.5 LD |
7.5 |
3 |
| 2007 VM184 |
2025-Dec-01 |
13.1 LD |
20 |
219 |
| 2018 WC2 |
2025-Dec-03 |
9.8 LD |
8.9 |
36 |
| 2025 UF10 |
2025-Dec-04 |
14.5 LD |
13.1 |
130 |
| 2021 JE1 |
2025-Dec-08 |
13.5 LD |
7.1 |
16 |
| 2019 XN3 |
2025-Dec-10 |
5.7 LD |
3.6 |
15 |
| 1999 SF10 |
2025-Dec-10 |
8.2 LD |
4.4 |
46 |
| 2016 YH |
2025-Dec-13 |
6.8 LD |
8.9 |
28 |
| 2025 TZ |
2025-Dec-15 |
17.8 LD |
6.2 |
53 |
| 2015 XX168 |
2025-Dec-18 |
4.7 LD |
11.6 |
27 |
| 2010 WR7 |
2025-Dec-20 |
19.5 LD |
8.3 |
71 |
| 2021 AB1 |
2025-Dec-28 |
10.2 LD |
12.3 |
16 |
| 2019 AU |
2025-Dec-30 |
19.3 LD |
2.8 |
16 |
| 2024 AV2 |
2025-Dec-30 |
17.9 LD |
7 |
17 |
| 2014 AF16 |
2026-Jan-04 |
9 LD |
9.6 |
34 |
| 2023 XM15 |
2026-Jan-07 |
15.2 LD |
6.9 |
51 |
| 2022 GR3 |
2026-Jan-12 |
14.5 LD |
12.9 |
9 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
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