 |
| |
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
|
Updated at: 2026 Jul 16 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
25
% |
25
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
20
% |
MINOR |
05
% |
05
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
20
% |
25
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
This is an AI Free Zone: AI is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
|
|
|
VENUS AND THE MOON AT SUNSET: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look west. Venus and the crescent Moon (~16%) are shining side-by-side in the twilight sky. Try to catch them before the sky fades to black. Venus and the Moon are extra-beautiful when they are surrounded by twilight blue: sky map.
A COMET WITH A RAZOR-THIN TRAIL: Earth is approaching the orbital plane of an ancient comet with an unusual appearance: 10P/Tempel. The comet is bisected by a razor-thin layer of dust, making it look a bit like Saturn with edge-on rings. Chris Schur photographed 10P this week from Happy Jack, Arizona:
"This comet is exhibiting the most obvious dust trail I have ever seen in 50 years of imaging," says Schur.
Note the distinction: trail vs. tail. The structure in Schur's photo is a trail--a pancake of gravel-sized debris that has settled into the comet's orbit over hundreds to thousands of years. This differs from a tail, which is a young spray of fresh gas and dust in many directions.
Comet 10P's pancake trail was discovered by NASA's Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) in 1983--one of the first ever found. Catching it with a backyard telescope is a rare feat.
 This weekend is prime time to try. Between July 18th and 22nd, Earth crosses 10P's orbital plane. As the crossing occurs, the trail will sharpen to maximum thinness and surface brightness. Later, the trail will pivot and fan back open. Long exposures taken days apart may show notable changes.
The comet is currently a magnitude 8.4 object in the constellation Capricorn, brightening to ~7.7 by month's end. It will be closest to Earth on August 3rd, but now is the time to look while the gravel trail is edge on. A small telescope will show the green coma with ease, while deep-sky exposures will be needed to catch the gravel.
Take a look! And submit your photos here.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
ASTRONAUT SNOOPY COFFEE CUP: Coffee tastes better in a cup from space. On July 16th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched the 'I Need My Space' Snoopy cup to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon. Here it is floating more than 105,315 feet above Earth's surface:
You can have it for $99.95. It's Peanuts for a cup from space! The students are selling Snoopy cups to support their cosmic ray monitoring program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the cup in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On July 14, 2026, the network reported 5 fireballs.
(5 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On July 17, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2007 AA2 |
2026-Jul-12 |
8.1 LD |
6.7 |
43 |
| 2026 NG1 |
2026-Jul-12 |
7 LD |
9.8 |
26 |
| 2026 NK1 |
2026-Jul-12 |
1.2 LD |
11.3 |
8 |
| 2026 NL1 |
2026-Jul-13 |
2.2 LD |
5.5 |
7 |
| 2026 NP1 |
2026-Jul-13 |
11.2 LD |
6.9 |
48 |
| 2026 OB |
2026-Jul-14 |
2.6 LD |
11.3 |
16 |
| 2026 NG2 |
2026-Jul-14 |
14.1 LD |
14.3 |
36 |
| 2026 OA |
2026-Jul-15 |
2.5 LD |
19 |
16 |
| 2026 NW1 |
2026-Jul-16 |
7 LD |
4.8 |
25 |
| 2026 MQ3 |
2026-Jul-16 |
12.5 LD |
8.7 |
145 |
| 2025 PN7 |
2026-Jul-17 |
11.6 LD |
2.6 |
19 |
| 2026 NW |
2026-Jul-17 |
17.5 LD |
3.1 |
26 |
| 2026 NF |
2026-Jul-18 |
10.9 LD |
8.6 |
24 |
| 2026 NO |
2026-Jul-18 |
11 LD |
15.4 |
72 |
| 2025 MB90 |
2026-Jul-19 |
5 LD |
9.6 |
54 |
| 2026 NQ1 |
2026-Jul-19 |
15.4 LD |
28.4 |
98 |
| 2026 NB1 |
2026-Jul-21 |
17.7 LD |
8.4 |
75 |
| 2020 OM |
2026-Jul-21 |
9.1 LD |
9.5 |
15 |
| 2026 KU3 |
2026-Jul-24 |
7.7 LD |
8.6 |
80 |
| 2020 UR1 |
2026-Jul-25 |
18.8 LD |
7.6 |
28 |
| 2015 BF |
2026-Jul-26 |
17.3 LD |
12.5 |
17 |
| 2025 OW |
2026-Jul-30 |
16.1 LD |
20.1 |
70 |
| 2024 RM10 |
2026-Aug-05 |
13.6 LD |
7.5 |
24 |
| 173561 |
2026-Aug-09 |
13.1 LD |
16.2 |
756 |
| 2019 NY2 |
2026-Aug-10 |
6.6 LD |
9.6 |
195 |
| 2016 BV14 |
2026-Aug-10 |
19.1 LD |
21.1 |
162 |
| 2013 QC11 |
2026-Aug-13 |
14.5 LD |
19 |
172 |
| 2026 NY |
2026-Aug-13 |
12.4 LD |
8.2 |
100 |
| 2025 AL2 |
2026-Aug-16 |
2.2 LD |
12.4 |
100 |
| 2025 DU7 |
2026-Aug-19 |
8.7 LD |
2.9 |
5 |
| 2025 FY11 |
2026-Aug-20 |
19.2 LD |
3.5 |
6 |
| 2023 RL |
2026-Aug-25 |
12.9 LD |
4.8 |
7 |
| 523609 |
2026-Aug-27 |
18.5 LD |
22.7 |
441 |
| 2025 QM9 |
2026-Aug-28 |
15.2 LD |
11.1 |
20 |
| 221455 |
2026-Aug-28 |
9.4 LD |
19 |
443 |
| 2017 BP31 |
2026-Aug-28 |
11.2 LD |
20.5 |
382 |
| 2007 EK |
2026-Aug-30 |
10.9 LD |
9.1 |
5 |
| 2017 RH16 |
2026-Aug-31 |
8.7 LD |
12.1 |
21 |
| 2025 CL3 |
2026-Sep-01 |
9.6 LD |
13.5 |
30 |
| 2018 RD2 |
2026-Sep-01 |
19.5 LD |
9.6 |
14 |
| 2025 QV5 |
2026-Sep-02 |
14.2 LD |
7.3 |
12 |
| 2020 YA5 |
2026-Sep-06 |
19.5 LD |
10.4 |
47 |
| 2022 RK |
2026-Sep-06 |
13.7 LD |
8.6 |
24 |
| 2024 RV12 |
2026-Sep-09 |
5.6 LD |
12.1 |
22 |
| 2025 RQ2 |
2026-Sep-11 |
17.5 LD |
12.1 |
17 |
| 2010 FX9 |
2026-Sep-14 |
9.4 LD |
11.1 |
55 |
| 2025 SC |
2026-Sep-14 |
19.2 LD |
1.9 |
3 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| |
The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
| |
These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
