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CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Don't be surprised if there's a solar flare today. Four of the ten sunspot groups now facing Earth have mixed-polarity magnetic fields with + and - signs in close proximity. It's a recipe for explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on Sept. 27th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
VAN GOGH WAVES IN THE MAGNETOSPHERE: When Vincent van Gogh painted "The Starry Night" in 1889, little did he know he was working at the forefront of 21st century astrophysics. A paper recently published in Nature Communications reveals that the same kind of waves pictured in the famous painting can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth.
Above: Vincent van Gogh's 'Starry Night', which he painted in 1889: more
Physicists call them "Kelvin Helmholtz waves." They ripple into existence when streams of gas flow past each other at different velocities. Van Gogh saw them in high clouds outside the window of his asylum in Saint-Rémy, France. They also form in space where the solar wind flows around Earth's magnetic field.
"We have found Kelvin-Helmholtz waves rippling down the flanks of Earth's magnetosphere," says Shiva Kavosi of Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University, lead author of the Nature paper. "NASA spacecraft are surfing the waves, and directly measuring their properties."
This was first suspected in the 1950s by theoreticians who made mathematical models of solar wind hitting Earth's magnetic field. However, until recently it was just an idea; there was no proof the waves existed. When Kavosi's team looked at data collected by NASA's THEMIS and MMS spacecraft since 2007, they saw clear evidence of Kelvin Helmholtz instabilities.
"The waves are huge," says Kavosi. "They are 2 to 6 Earth radii in wavelength and as much as 4 Earth radii in amplitude."
This computer model shows van Gogh waves moving down the flank of Earth's magnetosphere. Credit: Shiva Kasovi. [full-sized animation]
Imagine a wave taller than Earth curling over and breaking. That's exactly what happens. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves naturally break onto Earth's magnetic field, propelling energetic particles deep into the magnetosphere. This revs up Earth's radiation belts, triggering geomagnetic storms and auroras.
A key finding of Kavosi's paper is that the waves prefer equinoxes. They appear 3 times more frequently around the start of spring and fall than summer and winter. Researchers have long known that geomagnetic activity is highest around equinoxes. Kelvin-Helmholtz wave activity could be one reason why.
Our planet's seasonal dependence of geomagnetic activity has always been a bit of a puzzle. After all, the sun doesn't know when it's autumn on Earth. One idea holds that, around the time of the equinoxes, Earth's magnetic field links to the sun's because of the tilt of Earth's magnetic poles. This is called the Russell-McPherron effect after the researchers who first described it in 1973. Kavosi's research shows that Kelvin-Helmholtz waves might be important, too.
Northern autumn has just begun, which means Kelvin Helmholtz waves are now rippling around our planet, stirring up "Starry Night" auroras. Happy autumn!
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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18K GOLD "ALWAYS AND FOREVER" PENDANT: Are you looking for an unforgettable gift? Consider the Always and Forever Space Pendent. On Aug. 29, 2023, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $199.95. Engraved with the words "I love you always and forever", this 18K gold-plated sterling silver pendant has a heart-shaped ruby crystal in the middle surrounded by a ring of glittering 5A cubic zirconia nuggets. It is a visually striking premium pendant that makes a once-in-a-lifetime anniversary or birthday gift.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
COMET NISHIMURA VS. THE SUN: This month, Comet Nishimura (C/2023 P1) is passing by the sun inside the orbit of Mercury. The Heliospheric Imager on NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft has gotten some great footage of the close encounter:
"Comet Nishimura is looking spectacular!" says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Laboratory, who made the movie. "There are lots of beautiful interactions between the comet tail and the solar wind, along with a possible glancing blow from a CME."
The other bright object in the field of view is Mars. Although the comet and the planet seem to be close together (especially on Sept. 23rd), they are in fact very far apart. Mars is on the far side of the sun hundreds of millions of kilometers away.
The comet will remain in STEREO-A's field of view until Oct. 3rd, and Battams plans to make new movies every day. Stay tuned.
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Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
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Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Sep 27, 2023, the network reported 3 fireballs.
(3 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On September 27, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2023 SN5 | 2023-Sep-22 | 4.8 LD | 9 | 38 |
| 2023 SU5 | 2023-Sep-22 | 8.7 LD | 7.9 | 62 |
| 2023 SA7 | 2023-Sep-22 | 17.6 LD | 15.7 | 58 |
| 2023 SR6 | 2023-Sep-22 | 5.8 LD | 8 | 27 |
| 2023 SY5 | 2023-Sep-22 | 1.4 LD | 11 | 11 |
| 2023 RQ6 | 2023-Sep-22 | 15.8 LD | 9.4 | 24 |
| 2023 ST6 | 2023-Sep-23 | 17.3 LD | 36.3 | 40 |
| 2023 SC3 | 2023-Sep-23 | 16.4 LD | 9.6 | 15 |
| 2023 SQ6 | 2023-Sep-23 | 2.3 LD | 9.7 | 15 |
| 2023 SF7 | 2023-Sep-23 | 18.6 LD | 8.4 | 21 |
| 2023 RU3 | 2023-Sep-23 | 19.8 LD | 11.6 | 34 |
| 2023 SO6 | 2023-Sep-23 | 6.7 LD | 8.1 | 17 |
| 2023 SM5 | 2023-Sep-23 | 1 LD | 11.5 | 18 |
| 2023 SV2 | 2023-Sep-23 | 4.5 LD | 12.8 | 14 |
| 2023 SW5 | 2023-Sep-23 | 9.4 LD | 10.9 | 30 |
| 2023 RD15 | 2023-Sep-24 | 6 LD | 5 | 15 |
| 2023 SQ1 | 2023-Sep-24 | 5.4 LD | 20.5 | 20 |
| 2023 SD3 | 2023-Sep-24 | 15.7 LD | 3.5 | 16 |
| 2023 SB2 | 2023-Sep-24 | 6.9 LD | 8 | 11 |
| 2023 SP3 | 2023-Sep-24 | 0.9 LD | 11.7 | 17 |
| 2023 ST2 | 2023-Sep-25 | 7.8 LD | 21.2 | 21 |
| 2023 SH7 | 2023-Sep-25 | 0.1 LD | 8.6 | 2 |
| 2023 SZ | 2023-Sep-25 | 5.6 LD | 4.3 | 24 |
| 2023 SY3 | 2023-Sep-26 | 3.4 LD | 7.9 | 15 |
| 2023 SO5 | 2023-Sep-26 | 13 LD | 16.8 | 24 |
| 2019 SF6 | 2023-Sep-26 | 16.7 LD | 8.6 | 20 |
| 2023 SP6 | 2023-Sep-26 | 1.5 LD | 17 | 9 |
| 2023 SE2 | 2023-Sep-27 | 7.7 LD | 23.9 | 25 |
| 2023 SF6 | 2023-Sep-27 | 3.8 LD | 17.4 | 20 |
| 2023 SY1 | 2023-Sep-28 | 7.2 LD | 10.1 | 12 |
| 2023 RF3 | 2023-Sep-28 | 15.4 LD | 7.7 | 38 |
| 2023 SW6 | 2023-Sep-28 | 3.5 LD | 11.9 | 18 |
| 2013 TG6 | 2023-Sep-28 | 3.6 LD | 4.1 | 17 |
| 2023 SE4 | 2023-Sep-29 | 5.3 LD | 4.6 | 14 |
| 2023 RF9 | 2023-Sep-29 | 10.6 LD | 9.2 | 26 |
| 2023 SC4 | 2023-Sep-30 | 12.4 LD | 8.3 | 22 |
| 2023 SA6 | 2023-Sep-30 | 16.4 LD | 9.7 | 22 |
| 2009 UG | 2023-Sep-30 | 6.1 LD | 9 | 78 |
| 2023 SY2 | 2023-Oct-01 | 9.1 LD | 9.9 | 21 |
| 349507 | 2023-Oct-03 | 16.5 LD | 21 | 696 |
| 2022 FX1 | 2023-Oct-04 | 20 LD | 9.9 | 25 |
| 2023 SN6 | 2023-Oct-04 | 12.6 LD | 8.5 | 27 |
| 2019 QO5 | 2023-Oct-05 | 19.9 LD | 9.4 | 61 |
| 2023 RF10 | 2023-Oct-05 | 15.8 LD | 5.8 | 27 |
| 2023 QC8 | 2023-Oct-05 | 15.8 LD | 6.3 | 43 |
| 2023 RR29 | 2023-Oct-06 | 9.2 LD | 8.1 | 34 |
| 2022 TD | 2023-Oct-07 | 8.9 LD | 9.4 | 10 |
| 2023 SA1 | 2023-Oct-08 | 17.9 LD | 5.9 | 26 |
| 2018 ER1 | 2023-Oct-08 | 12.5 LD | 5.3 | 27 |
| 2022 UX1 | 2023-Oct-11 | 3.1 LD | 8.6 | 9 |
| 2023 RD11 | 2023-Oct-11 | 12.8 LD | 9.6 | 39 |
| 2015 KW120 | 2023-Oct-12 | 18.2 LD | 13 | 22 |
| 2021 NT14 | 2023-Oct-13 | 18.6 LD | 8.6 | 254 |
| 2011 GA | 2023-Oct-15 | 6.8 LD | 16.6 | 230 |
| 2007 SQ6 | 2023-Oct-15 | 19.4 LD | 6.5 | 130 |
| 2019 UZ3 | 2023-Oct-16 | 9.6 LD | 8.3 | 14 |
| 1998 HH49 | 2023-Oct-17 | 3.1 LD | 14.8 | 193 |
| 2022 UO10 | 2023-Oct-19 | 7.8 LD | 9.8 | 16 |
| 2020 UR | 2023-Oct-20 | 5.8 LD | 12.9 | 9 |
| 2020 FM6 | 2023-Oct-23 | 15.5 LD | 15.9 | 149 |
| 2019 HH4 | 2023-Oct-24 | 13.3 LD | 20 | 365 |
| 2023 RA4 | 2023-Oct-24 | 8.4 LD | 3.9 | 49 |
| 2021 SZ4 | 2023-Oct-26 | 14 LD | 30 | 287 |
| 302169 | 2023-Oct-26 | 12.7 LD | 25.7 | 374 |
| 525229 | 2023-Oct-30 | 10.6 LD | 17.4 | 200 |
| 2013 UV3 | 2023-Nov-01 | 14.7 LD | 15.4 | 16 |
| 2016 WY | 2023-Nov-02 | 9.1 LD | 3.9 | 5 |
| 363505 | 2023-Nov-02 | 13.7 LD | 8 | 709 |
| 2022 JF | 2023-Nov-03 | 15.2 LD | 17.2 | 39 |
| 2023 QP8 | 2023-Nov-03 | 17.1 LD | 8.8 | 174 |
| 2016 VW2 | 2023-Nov-03 | 10.1 LD | 8.1 | 20 |
| 2019 UH7 | 2023-Nov-04 | 9.9 LD | 5.9 | 11 |
| 2014 BA3 | 2023-Nov-13 | 15.7 LD | 2.7 | 8 |
| 2021 TN3 | 2023-Nov-15 | 17 LD | 6.3 | 31 |
| 2019 VL5 | 2023-Nov-16 | 8.5 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
| 2019 LB1 | 2023-Nov-18 | 15.8 LD | 4.2 | 14 |
| 2016 DK1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 5.3 LD | 6.8 | 11 |
| 2022 VR1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 8.1 LD | 6.1 | 39 |
| 2019 UT6 | 2023-Nov-24 | 9 LD | 13.2 | 141 |
| 2019 CZ2 | 2023-Nov-25 | 2.8 LD | 5.8 | 43 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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