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A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A double-lobed hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it is spewing a complex stream of solar wind toward Earth. ETA: Oct. 30th. Its arrival could spark a display of high-latitude Halloween auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
SUDDENLY, SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE DROPPING: Solar Cycle 25 roared to life in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025. Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping:
The red line in this plot from the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center shows sunspot counts heading for zero as October 2023 comes to an end. The face of today's sun looks almost blank--a dramatic change from the highly-spotted disks of recent months.
Does this mean Solar Cycle 25 is ending prematurely? No. "Sunspot lulls" are normal statistical fluctuations observed even during very strong solar cycles. Almost certainly, Solar Cycle 25 will bounce back soon as it heads for a maximum in the next year or two. Stay tuned for more sunspots. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
THE MYSTERY OF ORANGE AURORAS: A recent display of auroras over Canada has experts scratching their heads. The mystery? They were orange:
"This was a first for me," says Harlan Thomas, who photographed the display over Sibbald Pond west of Calgary, Alberta, on Oct. 19th. "The orange was sublime, just incredible. The pillars in the center stayed there glowing for more than 20 minutes."
Auroras aren't supposed to be orange. Consider the following: Auroras get their colors from atoms and molecules in Earth's atmosphere. During geomagnetic storms, energetic particles rain down from space, striking the air and causing it to glow. Red, green, purple and even pink are common signs of excited oxygen and nitrogen.
The problem is, there's nothing in the air capable of making bright orange. Theoretically, nitrogen and oxygen (N2, N2+, and O2+) can produce emissions at orange wavelengths. However, these emissions are very weak compared to other colors produced by the same molecules. Any orange should be overwhelmed.
Aurora colors produced by atoms and molecules in Earth's atmosphere. [more]
The answer may be hiding in plain sight. Take another look at Thomas's photo. Bright red auroras appear on top, overlapping green auroras lower down. Red and green mixing together may have produced the yellow-orange glow.
Indeed, aurora physicist Kjellmar Oksavik of the University of Bergen in Norway believes that's the correct explanation:
"Red auroras are formed by low-energy electrons colliding with atomic oxygen at high altitudes (200-400 km). Here, oxygen atoms are excited into a quantum state called O(1D), where they can emit a red photon at 630.0 nanometers," Oksavik says.
"Green auroras are formed by higher-energy electrons penetrating deeper and colliding with atomic oxygen at lower altitudes (100-150 km)," he continues. "Here, oxygen atoms are excited into a state called O(1S), where they emit a green photon at 557.7 nanometers."
"In between, there can be a mixing of the two processes, which fools the camera and eye to believe that it is orange. In reality, it is both red and green at the same time," he says.
More examples of orange recorded during the Halloween Storms of 2003. Credit: Jay Edwards.
Oksavik points out one more thing in Harlan Thomas's photo: "It beautifully reveals the alignment of Earth’s magnetic field. The bright pillar in the center is a textbook example of a very tall auroral ray. These are aligned along the magnetic field and caused by a broad energy spectrum of electrons [raining down from space]. Slower electrons collide high up (red light), while more energetic electrons travel further down into a much denser atmosphere (green light)." The overlap naturally produces a yellow-orange glow--no mystery molecule required.
Have you photographed an orange aurora? Submit your pictures here.
more orange: from Dave Parkhurst of Knik Valley, Alaska; from Louis Greene in Denali National Park, AK; from Doug McAvoy of Commanda, Ontario, Canada; from Raymond Maher of Maurice River Township, New Jersey; from Serian Kallweit of Baksjöbodarna, Sweden;
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
HANDMADE ANNULAR SOLAR ECLIPSE PENDANT: This pendant has touched the shadow of the Moon. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere on Oct. 14, 2023, during the annular solar eclipse. The handmade pendant was 78,500 feet high when the Moon's shadow arrived and wrapped it in a cool twilight-like darkness:
You can have it for $129.95. The pendant left Earth from Nevada's Valley of the Moon, a remote area filled with the scent of sage and herds of wild horses. Indeed, no fewer than three mustang families approached the launch team during the eclipse to see what was going on. It was a magical experience.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Oct 24, 2023, the network reported 30 fireballs.
(21 sporadics, 6 Orionids, 2 Leonis Minorids, 1 epsilon Geminid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On October 25, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2020 UR | 2023-Oct-20 | 5.8 LD | 12.9 | 9 |
2023 TK15 | 2023-Oct-20 | 1 LD | 22 | 24 |
2023 UH | 2023-Oct-20 | 6.8 LD | 11.1 | 21 |
2023 UD4 | 2023-Oct-21 | 1.3 LD | 4.3 | 9 |
2023 UV1 | 2023-Oct-21 | 2.9 LD | 9.7 | 17 |
2023 UR1 | 2023-Oct-21 | 2.2 LD | 8.2 | 40 |
2023 UE6 | 2023-Oct-21 | 5.5 LD | 7.4 | 11 |
2023 UB4 | 2023-Oct-21 | 19.6 LD | 19.7 | 55 |
2023 UQ6 | 2023-Oct-21 | 12.2 LD | 18 | 32 |
2023 UW | 2023-Oct-21 | 4.2 LD | 6 | 9 |
2023 UN | 2023-Oct-21 | 1.3 LD | 11.2 | 23 |
2023 UG3 | 2023-Oct-21 | 4.6 LD | 12.1 | 19 |
2023 UL2 | 2023-Oct-21 | 14.6 LD | 15.7 | 50 |
2023 UH1 | 2023-Oct-21 | 9.9 LD | 5.1 | 14 |
2023 UE3 | 2023-Oct-21 | 2.5 LD | 4.7 | 7 |
2023 UP2 | 2023-Oct-21 | 3.7 LD | 8.7 | 17 |
2023 UG1 | 2023-Oct-22 | 4.4 LD | 2.9 | 11 |
2023 TW4 | 2023-Oct-22 | 6.4 LD | 10.5 | 26 |
2023 TX2 | 2023-Oct-22 | 13.2 LD | 7.5 | 30 |
2023 TW26 | 2023-Oct-22 | 2.3 LD | 5.6 | 7 |
2023 UZ | 2023-Oct-22 | 2.5 LD | 13.1 | 13 |
2023 TP16 | 2023-Oct-23 | 3.8 LD | 1.5 | 4 |
2023 TV4 | 2023-Oct-23 | 5.1 LD | 5 | 27 |
2020 FM6 | 2023-Oct-23 | 16.8 LD | 15.8 | 149 |
2023 UU4 | 2023-Oct-23 | 5.4 LD | 16.1 | 24 |
2023 UU6 | 2023-Oct-23 | 12.9 LD | 11.4 | 15 |
2023 TC6 | 2023-Oct-23 | 13.4 LD | 8.5 | 35 |
2023 UK3 | 2023-Oct-23 | 2.2 LD | 8.7 | 5 |
2023 TX8 | 2023-Oct-24 | 3.3 LD | 5.6 | 17 |
2019 HH4 | 2023-Oct-24 | 13.3 LD | 20 | 381 |
2023 UO3 | 2023-Oct-24 | 6.8 LD | 8.9 | 25 |
2023 UN7 | 2023-Oct-24 | 15.3 LD | 14.1 | 51 |
2023 TE6 | 2023-Oct-24 | 17 LD | 4.2 | 18 |
2023 RA4 | 2023-Oct-24 | 8.4 LD | 3.9 | 47 |
2023 UH5 | 2023-Oct-24 | 7.2 LD | 10.3 | 33 |
2023 UJ3 | 2023-Oct-25 | 17.7 LD | 4.2 | 13 |
2023 UF6 | 2023-Oct-25 | 8 LD | 15.3 | 24 |
2023 UR6 | 2023-Oct-25 | 4.8 LD | 18.4 | 18 |
2023 SO11 | 2023-Oct-25 | 3.3 LD | 2.5 | 16 |
2023 TG14 | 2023-Oct-26 | 4.2 LD | 6.7 | 25 |
2023 UJ2 | 2023-Oct-26 | 11.8 LD | 3.2 | 49 |
2023 TR7 | 2023-Oct-26 | 19.3 LD | 11.4 | 30 |
2021 SZ4 | 2023-Oct-26 | 14 LD | 30 | 289 |
302169 | 2023-Oct-26 | 12.7 LD | 25.7 | 374 |
2023 UO7 | 2023-Oct-27 | 1.1 LD | 13.8 | 8 |
2023 UV6 | 2023-Oct-27 | 10.3 LD | 7.3 | 18 |
2023 UK4 | 2023-Oct-27 | 11.7 LD | 11.3 | 17 |
2023 UA2 | 2023-Oct-29 | 12.9 LD | 9.2 | 15 |
525229 | 2023-Oct-30 | 10.6 LD | 17.4 | 200 |
2023 TW6 | 2023-Oct-31 | 19.2 LD | 24.4 | 89 |
2013 UV3 | 2023-Nov-01 | 14.7 LD | 15.4 | 15 |
2023 UZ3 | 2023-Nov-01 | 2.7 LD | 14.4 | 19 |
2016 WY | 2023-Nov-02 | 9.1 LD | 3.9 | 5 |
363505 | 2023-Nov-02 | 13.7 LD | 8 | 709 |
2023 UY3 | 2023-Nov-02 | 14 LD | 3.7 | 15 |
2022 JF | 2023-Nov-03 | 15.2 LD | 17.2 | 39 |
2023 QP8 | 2023-Nov-03 | 17.1 LD | 8.8 | 180 |
2016 VW2 | 2023-Nov-03 | 10.1 LD | 8.1 | 20 |
2019 UH7 | 2023-Nov-04 | 9.9 LD | 5.9 | 11 |
2023 TL31 | 2023-Nov-04 | 8.1 LD | 9.2 | 28 |
2023 UG4 | 2023-Nov-06 | 6.5 LD | 3.5 | 17 |
2023 TO15 | 2023-Nov-06 | 15.2 LD | 11.2 | 48 |
2023 TD14 | 2023-Nov-08 | 9.3 LD | 6.3 | 24 |
2023 UQ4 | 2023-Nov-11 | 10.7 LD | 8.4 | 38 |
2023 TZ2 | 2023-Nov-12 | 19 LD | 2.8 | 24 |
2014 BA3 | 2023-Nov-13 | 15.7 LD | 2.7 | 8 |
2023 UO | 2023-Nov-15 | 6.4 LD | 6.8 | 36 |
2021 TN3 | 2023-Nov-15 | 17 LD | 6.3 | 31 |
2019 VL5 | 2023-Nov-16 | 8.5 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
2019 LB1 | 2023-Nov-18 | 15.8 LD | 4.2 | 14 |
2016 DK1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 5.3 LD | 6.8 | 12 |
2022 VR1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 8.1 LD | 6.1 | 39 |
2019 UT6 | 2023-Nov-24 | 9 LD | 13.2 | 141 |
2019 CZ2 | 2023-Nov-25 | 2.8 LD | 5.8 | 44 |
2013 UB3 | 2023-Nov-27 | 18.5 LD | 5.4 | 25 |
1998 WB2 | 2023-Dec-03 | 11 LD | 14.2 | 151 |
2013 VX4 | 2023-Dec-04 | 5.1 LD | 6.6 | 60 |
2023 TB27 | 2023-Dec-06 | 17.1 LD | 4.3 | 46 |
139622 | 2023-Dec-06 | 14.4 LD | 6.7 | 719 |
2020 HX3 | 2023-Dec-10 | 9.8 LD | 15.7 | 13 |
2010 XF3 | 2023-Dec-11 | 19.4 LD | 4 | 46 |
2016 XD2 | 2023-Dec-19 | 18.7 LD | 6.9 | 59 |
341843 | 2023-Dec-20 | 16.5 LD | 5.3 | 344 |
2018 YJ2 | 2023-Dec-21 | 18.4 LD | 13.1 | 154 |
2022 YG | 2023-Dec-22 | 10.8 LD | 5.1 | 17 |
2020 YO3 | 2023-Dec-23 | 3.6 LD | 16.6 | 42 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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