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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 342.4 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1
2150 UT Dec23
24-hr: B1
2150 UT Dec23
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 23 Dec 19
A new-cycle sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 23 Dec 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2019 total: 277 days (78%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 23 Dec 2019


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.40
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 22 Dec
2019

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 23 Dec 2019

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2019 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.2% High
7-day change: -1.2%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 23 Dec 2019 @ 0500 UT

Since 2015, Earth to Sky cosmic ray balloons launched weekly from California have also detected significant increases in atmospheric radiation. Dose rates reported below are in the stratosphere at approx. 100,000 ft.

California Cosmic Ray Balloons
Monitoring started in March 2015
now: 4.77 uGy/hr High
change since 2015: +23%
Max: 4.79 uGy/hr High
(10/2019)
Min: 3.80 uGy/hr Low (05/2015)
explanation | more data
Updated 06 Dec 2019

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.0 nT
Bz: -0.4 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2343 UT
Coronal Holes: 23 Dec 19

A stream of solar wind flowing from this minor coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 24-25, creating a green Christmas around the Arctic Circle.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 15th--the earliest start in recorded history. Check here for daily images from NASA's AIM spacecraft.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 12-22-2019 16:55:03 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2019 Dec 23 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2019 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
15 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
25 %
SEVERE
10 %
25 %
 
Monday, Dec. 23, 2019
What's up in space
       
 

Marianne’s Arctic tours: Operating in small groups of 7 to 14 persons--all needs supplied for safety, comfort and pleasure. Night & day photography or non-photographic landscape - wildlife tours. Click for details!

 

WILL ARCTIC SKIES TURN GREEN FOR CHRISTMAS? A minor stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Dec. 24-25. No geomagnetic storms are expected, but the gaseous material could spark holiday auroras around the Arctic Circle. Aurora Alerts: SMS Text.

A SUNSPOT FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: Breaking a string of 40 spotless days, a new sunspot is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere. It comes from the next solar cycle. The unnumbered spot is inset in this map of solar magnetic fields from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

How do we know this is a new-cycle sunspot? Its magnetic polarity tells us so. Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale’s Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. This sunspot is therefore a member of new Solar Cycle 25.

Recently we reported that Solar Minimum has reached a century-class low. This sunspot, plus a few others like it earlier this year, affirm that Solar Minimum won't last forever. Solar Cycle 25 is showing signs of life. Forecasters expect the next solar cycle to slowly gain strength in the years ahead and reach a peak in July 2025.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
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THE FAINTING OF BETELGEUSE: One day, perhaps in our lifetimes, perhaps 100,000 years from now, the red giant Betelgeuse will dim a little--and then explode. The supernova will rival the full Moon in the night skies of Earth and cast shadows after dark. This month, Betelgeuse has dimmed a little. So far it has not exploded. Alan Dyer photographed the star rising as usual with the rest of Orion on Dec. 21st:

"This is Orion rising over my home in Alberta, Canada, on a partly cloudy and foggy night," says Dyer. "Yellow-red Betelgeuse is shining at upper left, reportedly dimmer than usual."

Betelgeuse caused a sensation among professional astronomers earlier this month when Edward Guinan of Villanova University and colleagues reported a significant "fainting" of the star. "[Betelgeuse] has been declining in brightness since October 2019, now reaching a modern all-time low of V = +1.12 mag on 07 December 2019 UT," they wrote. "Currently this is the faintest the star has been during our 25+ years of continuous monitoring."

Astronomers have long known that Betelgeuse is on the precipice of an energy crisis. It's about to run out of fuel in its core. When that happens, the star will collapse and rebound explosively, producing the first known supernova in the Milky Way since 1604. Experts in stellar evolution believe Betelgeuse could die at any time during the next 100,000 years--a blink of an eye on time scales of astronomy.

The current dimming did not herald that final blast. Betelgeuse is also a slow variable star, and this seems to be no more than an episode of slightly deeper-than-usual dimming.  Orion remains intact ... for now.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
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CHRISTMAS GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: So far in 2019, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have launched 41 space weather balloons to the stratosphere, measuring cosmic rays over 2 continents and 6 different US states. You can help them pay their helium bill by purchasing a Christmas gift from the edge of space:

Every item in the Earth to Sky Store has flown to the stratosphere alongside an array of cosmic ray sensors. Carried aloft by giant helium balloons, these unique gifts travel above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.

Don't forget to enter coupon code "XMASRAYS" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Dec. 23, 2019, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(13 sporadics, 1 Leonis Minorid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On December 23, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2019 YB
2019-Dec-18
0.4 LD
12.8
4
2019 YY
2019-Dec-18
17 LD
8.1
23
2019 XF
2019-Dec-18
9.3 LD
24.1
79
2019 YS
2019-Dec-18
0.2 LD
7.2
2
2019 XO3
2019-Dec-18
3.3 LD
9.5
21
2019 YH1
2019-Dec-18
2.7 LD
9.8
22
2019 YK2
2019-Dec-19
2.2 LD
6.9
8
2019 YV1
2019-Dec-19
7.9 LD
6.1
36
2019 XQ3
2019-Dec-19
16.6 LD
27.8
257
2019 YC2
2019-Dec-20
5.2 LD
5.5
16
216258
2019-Dec-20
15.3 LD
11.8
324
2019 YN
2019-Dec-21
10.3 LD
17
25
2019 YM
2019-Dec-21
5.6 LD
17.1
23
2019 YD1
2019-Dec-21
12.9 LD
5.3
35
2013 XY20
2019-Dec-21
18.3 LD
1.9
28
2019 YA1
2019-Dec-22
8.8 LD
5.6
27
2017 XQ60
2019-Dec-22
10 LD
15.6
47
2019 YR1
2019-Dec-22
12.3 LD
16.5
25
2019 XP3
2019-Dec-23
18.3 LD
8.9
42
2019 WB7
2019-Dec-23
2.8 LD
6.9
43
2019 YO
2019-Dec-24
15.5 LD
3.6
18
2019 YE1
2019-Dec-24
13.6 LD
6.2
32
2019 YX1
2019-Dec-24
4.1 LD
8.6
47
2019 YU
2019-Dec-24
19.5 LD
16.4
83
2019 YB1
2019-Dec-25
4.2 LD
5.6
17
310442
2019-Dec-26
19 LD
12.3
372
2019 YQ
2019-Dec-28
13.6 LD
3.4
9
2019 YX
2019-Dec-29
18.5 LD
5.9
33
2019 YW1
2019-Dec-30
13.2 LD
19.7
63
2019 WR4
2019-Dec-31
11.7 LD
4.2
21
2019 YK
2020-Jan-01
14.1 LD
7.3
44
2019 YH2
2020-Jan-02
7.4 LD
14.3
83
2019 AE3
2020-Jan-02
4.9 LD
8.2
13
2019 YV
2020-Jan-10
17.3 LD
4.5
64
2019 UO
2020-Jan-10
11.8 LD
9.4
332
2019 WC5
2020-Jan-11
6.3 LD
13
108
2011 EP51
2020-Jan-15
19.6 LD
7.1
32
2017 RZ15
2020-Jan-15
12.1 LD
7.4
14
2019 YG1
2020-Jan-17
17.5 LD
4.4
31
2009 BH2
2020-Jan-18
14.6 LD
17.9
118
2013 DU
2020-Jan-20
14.9 LD
6.4
59
2019 TF2
2020-Jan-23
16.2 LD
1.6
18
2018 BM5
2020-Jan-23
13.1 LD
8.6
12
2018 AL12
2020-Jan-30
18.2 LD
17.7
39
2018 BU1
2020-Feb-02
19.4 LD
10
41
163373
2020-Feb-15
15.1 LD
15.2
589
2018 CW2
2020-Feb-17
6 LD
10.2
28
2019 BE5
2020-Feb-20
13.9 LD
14.8
34
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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