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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 329.0 km/sec
density: 6.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2
2249 UT May21
24-hr: A2
2249 UT May21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 21 May 20
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 21 May 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 19 days
2020 total: 110 days (77%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 21 May 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.06
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 21 May 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 21 May 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +10.4% Very High
48-hr change: -0.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 21 May 2020 @ 1400 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.5 nT
Bz: -1.2 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 21 May 20

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should graze Earth on May 22-23.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds NLC season has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected a blue cloud over the north pole on May 17th--one of the earliest starts in the spacecraft's 14 year history. Check here for daily images from AIM.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 05-21-2020 17:55:03 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 May 20 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 May 20 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
05 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
15 %
15 %
SEVERE
10 %
10 %
 
Thursday, May. 21, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

MERCURY-VENUS CONJUNCTION: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look west. See Venus? She's about to have company. Mercury is approaching for a 1o conjunction on May 21st and 22nd. The planets will be so close together, you can hide them behind a fingertip held at arm's length. Then, on May 23rd and 24th the crescent Moon joins the show. Browse: photo gallery. Sky maps: May 21, 22, 23, 24.

NOCTILUCENT CLOUD SEASON HAS BEGUN: NASA's AIM spacecraft has detected a noctilucent cloud (NLC) inside the Arctic Circle--the first of the 2020 summer season. It is the blue puff in this satellite image of the North Pole:

The detection on May 17th marks one of the earliest starts in the 14 year history of the spacecraft. "In previous years, we have seen the first NLCs appear between May 15th and May 27th," says Cora Randall, a member of the AIM science team at the University of Colorado. "Only once, in 2013 (May 15th), has the northern season started earlier than this."

NLCs are Earth's highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids, they float at the edge of space more than 80 km above the ground. The clouds form when summertime wisps of water vapor rise up to the mesosphere, allowing water to crystallize around specks of meteor smoke. Last summer, they spread as far south as Los Angeles and Las Vegas, setting records for low-latitude sightings.

To find out why NLCs appeared so early this year, Lynn Harvey of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics looked at data from NASA's Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The following plots show moisture and temperature in the mesosphere for the past 14 years, with 2020 traced in red:

"Between May 1st and May 17th, conditions in the mesosphere significantly cooled and moistened," says Harvey, "such that 2020 became the second coldest and third wettest year in the AIM record."

Noctilucent clouds have been likened to a great "geophysical light bulb" because they turn on abruptly, reaching almost full intensity over a period of no more than 5 to 10 days. This means the little blue puff could soon expand to cover most of the Arctic. Stay tuned!

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE SPACE HAMMER: Are you looking for a far-out Father's Day gift? Consider the Space Hammer. On May 2nd, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew a payload of hammers to the edge of space, 35.0 km (115,000 feet) above Earth's surface onboard a high altitude helium balloon. You can have one for $97.95:

These compact 8 oz. hammers are light enough to fly on a balloon yet dense enough to deliver a powerful blow. The magnetic head holds a nail for one-handed starting, and the stubby 6 in. length is perfect for tight work areas.

Each space hammer comes with a unique gift card showing the tool floating at the top of Earth's atmosphere. The interior of the card tells the story of the flight and confirms that this gift has been to the edge of space and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On May 21, 2020, the network reported 7 fireballs.
(7 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On May 21, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 KS
2020-May-16
8.5 LD
7.2
26
2020 JN1
2020-May-16
1.1 LD
18.5
6
2020 JY
2020-May-17
6.3 LD
11.8
43
2020 JL1
2020-May-17
4.1 LD
10.4
8
2020 KW
2020-May-18
1.3 LD
7.2
7
2020 JE2
2020-May-18
2.2 LD
13.8
10
2020 HG9
2020-May-18
15.6 LD
10.6
76
2020 KA
2020-May-19
2 LD
5.8
12
2020 JD2
2020-May-19
10 LD
9.5
28
2020 KR
2020-May-20
1 LD
13.8
9
2020 KP
2020-May-21
2.6 LD
13.3
9
136795
2020-May-21
16.1 LD
11.7
892
2020 JE1
2020-May-22
14.4 LD
7.5
37
2020 KF2
2020-May-22
16.9 LD
6
21
2020 KW1
2020-May-22
1.5 LD
8
6
2020 KD1
2020-May-22
1 LD
8.9
10
2020 JH2
2020-May-22
10.8 LD
15.1
43
2020 JY1
2020-May-22
3.1 LD
8.7
32
2020 KU
2020-May-23
1 LD
7.1
7
2020 JR1
2020-May-23
3.8 LD
6.2
10
2020 KJ
2020-May-23
9 LD
15.7
45
2020 JX
2020-May-23
19.5 LD
8
61
2020 KX
2020-May-24
12.3 LD
7.5
20
2020 JZ1
2020-May-24
11.6 LD
5.6
24
2020 JP2
2020-May-27
11.6 LD
8.6
19
2020 KV
2020-May-28
7.2 LD
12.6
34
2020 JM1
2020-May-28
9.5 LD
5.8
21
2020 JV2
2020-May-29
9.2 LD
11.5
24
2020 KB
2020-May-29
7.5 LD
12.2
39
2020 KU1
2020-May-29
15.3 LD
12.4
41
2020 KV1
2020-May-29
10.1 LD
4.7
20
2020 KF
2020-Jun-02
12.1 LD
10.8
25
2020 KJ1
2020-Jun-02
5.5 LD
5.1
19
163348
2020-Jun-06
13.3 LD
11.1
339
2020 KO1
2020-Jun-06
15.5 LD
7.3
36
2020 KQ1
2020-Jun-06
13.4 LD
14.9
55
2013 XA22
2020-Jun-08
7.6 LD
6.7
98
2020 KY
2020-Jun-10
17.3 LD
2.4
19
2020 JQ2
2020-Jun-11
15.2 LD
4.5
24
2020 JS1
2020-Jun-11
9.9 LD
5
19
2020 JU1
2020-Jun-13
19 LD
6.5
47
2017 MF7
2020-Jun-14
3.7 LD
10.9
23
2018 PD22
2020-Jun-19
17.2 LD
14.6
56
2020 KR1
2020-Jun-22
11.8 LD
6.8
43
441987
2020-Jun-24
9.8 LD
12.9
186
2017 FW128
2020-Jun-25
6.9 LD
5.4
11
2020 JX1
2020-Jun-29
3.3 LD
5
58
2019 AC3
2020-Jul-01
10.5 LD
3.4
12
2007 UN12
2020-Jul-04
16.7 LD
2.9
6
2009 OS5
2020-Jul-13
17.6 LD
2.6
45
2016 DY30
2020-Jul-19
9 LD
15.1
3
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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