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WEEKEND GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A CME (movie) is expected to hit Earth this weekend--probably on Nov. 19th. The impact could spark minor G1-class geomagnetc storms on the 19th and 20th. During such storms, naked-eye auroras typically fill the Arctic Circle. Fainter photographic auroras (best seen using cameras) may cross the US-Canadian border, dipping into states from New York to Washington. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
A BIG NEW SUNSPOT GROUP: A large and active sunspot group is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. This 24-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows seven Earth-sized dark cores, with more to come:
Newly-numbered "AR3490," the sunspot group is cracking with flares. Earth-orbiting satellites have registered three M-class flares and nearly a dozen C-class flares since the weekend began.
The sunspot group is so large, it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismologists used the tremors to detect this sunspot group while it was still on the farside of the sun. Their latest seismic maps confirm that we haven't seen all of it; some of the group is still wrapped around the edge of the sun. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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IS THIS THE WEIRDEST COMET EVER? Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks continues to baffle astronomers, who are monitoring the aftermath of its 4th major cryo-volcanic eruption in 2023. Previous eruptions in July and October produced "devils horns." The latest and biggest blast on Nov. 14th has transformed the comet into a pearly-green sphere with a dark lane inside:
"Bursting Comet 12 has a very interesting coma!" says photographer Rok Palcic of Kamnik, Slovenia.
The "devil's horns" of July and October may have been caused by complex topography on the comet's surface. It's possible that exhaust from ice volcanos could be blocked and redirected by obstacles, creating strange shapes. If so, the dark lane in thos month's expanding debris could be just another blockage.
Eliot Herman, who has been photographing the comet every night, has a different idea: "I think the substructure is a shadow," he says. In a contrast-enhanced photo of the comet's core, Herman sees a bright plume, which may trace back to a specific volcanic vent:
"The dark lane is curved, and its curvature appears to match that of the bright vent emission," he notes. "This gives the impression that the dark lane may be a shadow of the brighter plume projected onto the coma."
Comet 12P is changing every night, so monitoring is encouraged. The comet is currently shining at 9th magnitude, which makes it an easy target for amateur telescopes. Look for it in the constellation Hercules not far from the bright star Vega. [sky map]
Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
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OUT-OF-THIS-WORLD STOCKING STUFFER: Are you looking for a far-out stocking stuffer? The logical choice is Spock Soap. This bar touched space on April 29, 2023, when it hitched a ride onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon:
You can have it for $49.95. Not only does the bar smell like the mint gardens of Vulcan, but also each side of the wrapper features hilarious Spock lore. Take a look.
The students of Earth to Sky are selling space soap to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each bar comes with a greeting card showing the soap in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again. Jean-Luc Picard soap is available, too!
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov 19, 2023, the network reported 28 fireballs.
(14 Leonids, 11 sporadics, 2 Northern Taurids 1 November omega Orionid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On November 19, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2023 WE | 2023-Nov-14 | 3 LD | 10.8 | 12 |
| 2023 VR4 | 2023-Nov-14 | 17.9 LD | 10.5 | 89 |
| 2023 UO | 2023-Nov-15 | 6.4 LD | 6.8 | 36 |
| 2023 VL6 | 2023-Nov-15 | 8.8 LD | 5.1 | 17 |
| 2023 VE10 | 2023-Nov-15 | 19.5 LD | 8 | 30 |
| 2023 WC | 2023-Nov-15 | 12 LD | 9.1 | 32 |
| 2021 TN3 | 2023-Nov-15 | 17 LD | 6.3 | 31 |
| 2019 VL5 | 2023-Nov-16 | 8.5 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
| 2023 WA | 2023-Nov-17 | 0.1 LD | 17.9 | 7 |
| 2023 VG5 | 2023-Nov-17 | 5.7 LD | 23.3 | 26 |
| 2023 VX4 | 2023-Nov-17 | 7 LD | 3.9 | 11 |
| 2023 VX7 | 2023-Nov-17 | 2.5 LD | 10.8 | 14 |
| 2023 VK4 | 2023-Nov-17 | 12.3 LD | 11.9 | 24 |
| 2023 VR9 | 2023-Nov-17 | 3.3 LD | 7.7 | 11 |
| 2023 VW7 | 2023-Nov-17 | 7.3 LD | 10.1 | 19 |
| 2023 WB | 2023-Nov-18 | 1.7 LD | 12.6 | 17 |
| 2019 LB1 | 2023-Nov-18 | 15.8 LD | 4.2 | 14 |
| 2016 DK1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 5.3 LD | 6.8 | 12 |
| 2023 VY7 | 2023-Nov-19 | 19.7 LD | 13.7 | 78 |
| 2023 VT7 | 2023-Nov-19 | 15 LD | 10.6 | 55 |
| 2022 VR1 | 2023-Nov-19 | 8.1 LD | 6.1 | 39 |
| 2023 VB10 | 2023-Nov-19 | 14.1 LD | 11.3 | 21 |
| 2023 VE7 | 2023-Nov-20 | 14.1 LD | 19.7 | 40 |
| 2023 VE4 | 2023-Nov-20 | 13.3 LD | 11.6 | 38 |
| 2023 VW5 | 2023-Nov-21 | 4.4 LD | 11.2 | 29 |
| 2023 VC7 | 2023-Nov-23 | 10.6 LD | 8.1 | 23 |
| 2023 VH6 | 2023-Nov-23 | 6.8 LD | 7.3 | 28 |
| 2019 UT6 | 2023-Nov-24 | 9 LD | 13.2 | 141 |
| 2019 CZ2 | 2023-Nov-25 | 2.8 LD | 5.8 | 44 |
| 2023 VH5 | 2023-Nov-25 | 17.9 LD | 9 | 33 |
| 2023 VM1 | 2023-Nov-26 | 10.9 LD | 8.9 | 42 |
| 2013 UB3 | 2023-Nov-27 | 18.5 LD | 5.4 | 25 |
| 2023 VR5 | 2023-Nov-28 | 5.3 LD | 3 | 11 |
| 2023 VY8 | 2023-Nov-29 | 17 LD | 19.8 | 29 |
| 2023 VM7 | 2023-Dec-01 | 6.4 LD | 3.2 | 11 |
| 1998 WB2 | 2023-Dec-03 | 11 LD | 14.2 | 151 |
| 2013 VX4 | 2023-Dec-04 | 5.1 LD | 6.6 | 60 |
| 2023 TB27 | 2023-Dec-06 | 17 LD | 4.3 | 44 |
| 139622 | 2023-Dec-06 | 14.4 LD | 6.7 | 719 |
| 2023 WG | 2023-Dec-08 | 17.5 LD | 6.6 | 38 |
| 2023 WH | 2023-Dec-10 | 11.9 LD | 8.9 | 40 |
| 2020 HX3 | 2023-Dec-10 | 9.8 LD | 15.7 | 13 |
| 2010 XF3 | 2023-Dec-11 | 19.4 LD | 4 | 46 |
| 2016 XD2 | 2023-Dec-19 | 18.7 LD | 6.9 | 59 |
| 341843 | 2023-Dec-20 | 16.5 LD | 5.3 | 344 |
| 2018 YJ2 | 2023-Dec-21 | 18.4 LD | 13.1 | 154 |
| 2022 YG | 2023-Dec-22 | 10.8 LD | 5.1 | 17 |
| 2023 VD6 | 2023-Dec-23 | 10.6 LD | 15.5 | 167 |
| 2020 YO3 | 2023-Dec-23 | 3.6 LD | 16.6 | 42 |
| 2010 UE51 | 2023-Dec-24 | 9 LD | 1.3 | 7 |
| 2020 YR2 | 2023-Dec-25 | 13.8 LD | 8 | 8 |
| 2021 AM6 | 2023-Dec-31 | 18.3 LD | 6.6 | 17 |
| 2019 KK5 | 2024-Jan-03 | 10.6 LD | 20.9 | 98 |
| 2002 AY1 | 2024-Jan-08 | 15.2 LD | 17.3 | 230 |
| 2020 AC1 | 2024-Jan-11 | 19.3 LD | 5.3 | 7 |
| 2021 CZ2 | 2024-Jan-16 | 8 LD | 14.3 | 113 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| | The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| | from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| | the underlying science of space weather |
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