| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 2 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 6.8 nT Bz: 4.6 nT north more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2345 UT Coronal Holes: 18 Oct 21 Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Oct. 19th or (more likely) the 20th. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th. Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar Updated at: SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2021 Oct 18 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 01 % | 01 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2021 Oct 18 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 30 % | 25 % | MINOR | 05 % | 05 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 30 % | 30 % | SEVERE | 35 % | 30 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure! | | | SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A large southern hole in the sun's atmosphere is spewing solar wind toward Earth. ETA: Oct. 19-20. Solar wind speeds could top 500 km/s, sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. CHASING THE ELUSIVE 'SAR': Pro tip for aurora photographers: Double-check your images. You might have caught an elusive SAR. Jun Wang photographed this specimen over Lake Louise, Alberta, during last week's G2-class geomagnetic storm: "At the time, I didn't notice the red arc," says Wang. "I found it later, at home, while I was processing the photos." SARs are related to auroras, but they are not the same. Regular auroras appear when charged particles rain down from space, hitting the atmosphere (100-200 km high) and causing it to glow like the picture tube of an old color TV. SARs form differently. They are a sign of heat energy leaking into the upper atmosphere (~400 km high) from Earth's ring current system. The vivid red arcs were discovered in 1956 at the beginning of the Space Age and have been recorded by cameras on satellites hundreds of times since. Most aurora watchers have never seen one, though, because SARs are usually faint. Wang's experience is typical. He couldn't see the SAR, but it was there, easy to capture in a long exposure. During stronger storms, G3 and above, SARs can become naked-eye objects. Widespread sightings may be just a matter of time as young Solar Cycle 25 intensifies. Meanwhile, double-check your photos. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter STERLING SILVER OPAL PENDANT: It's our most beautiful space pendant ever: The Sterling Silver Opal. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus just launched one to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon. Here it is floating 103,018 ft above Earth's surface on Sept. 5th: You can have it for $179.95. Wrapped in a sterling silver Celtic love knot, the opal is suspended from a matching 18-inch chain. Each pendant comes with a greeting card showing the opal in flight, telling the story of its trip to the edge of space and back again. Opals are cousins of moonstones; in fact they look the same in low light. But when bright sunlight strikes an opal, something special happens. A spray of color emerges from the stone. This happened while the stone was in the stratosphere (see above) and it remains capable of this beautiful trick back on Earth. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Oct 18, 2021, the network reported 14 fireballs. (7 sporadics, 5 Orionids, 1 epsilon Geminid, 1 Leonis Minorid) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On October 18, 2021 there were 2225 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2021 TN14 | 2021-Oct-13 | 1.6 LD | 10.7 | 7 | 2021 TX10 | 2021-Oct-13 | 2.5 LD | 8.6 | 9 | 2021 UC | 2021-Oct-13 | 14.3 LD | 16.7 | 24 | 2021 TP8 | 2021-Oct-14 | 4.4 LD | 12.3 | 10 | 2021 TM14 | 2021-Oct-14 | 0.4 LD | 8.5 | 9 | 2021 TL14 | 2021-Oct-14 | 1.3 LD | 6 | 15 | 2021 TS3 | 2021-Oct-14 | 10.9 LD | 4.2 | 13 | 2021 TC1 | 2021-Oct-14 | 14.6 LD | 6.6 | 31 | 2021 SM1 | 2021-Oct-14 | 6.9 LD | 7.2 | 27 | 2021 TT4 | 2021-Oct-14 | 5.1 LD | 3.1 | 9 | 2021 UE | 2021-Oct-14 | 14.8 LD | 10.7 | 31 | 2021 TN6 | 2021-Oct-14 | 10 LD | 19.8 | 35 | 2021 TC21 | 2021-Oct-15 | 5.5 LD | 7.3 | 19 | 2021 SM3 | 2021-Oct-15 | 13 LD | 15.8 | 96 | 2021 TV10 | 2021-Oct-15 | 1.9 LD | 11.6 | 10 | 2021 TD13 | 2021-Oct-15 | 7 LD | 10 | 13 | 2017 TH1 | 2021-Oct-15 | 15 LD | 8.8 | 31 | 2021 TK10 | 2021-Oct-15 | 5.9 LD | 9.8 | 12 | 2021 TY14 | 2021-Oct-15 | 2 LD | 8.8 | 13 | 2021 TJ15 | 2021-Oct-16 | 1 LD | 12.3 | 8 | 2021 TF13 | 2021-Oct-16 | 7.5 LD | 18 | 19 | 2021 TJ12 | 2021-Oct-17 | 5.5 LD | 9.6 | 22 | 2021 TH13 | 2021-Oct-17 | 1.7 LD | 8.6 | 8 | 2021 TG14 | 2021-Oct-18 | 0.7 LD | 11.4 | 8 | 2021 TO14 | 2021-Oct-18 | 6.4 LD | 15.8 | 36 | 2021 TQ15 | 2021-Oct-18 | 8.2 LD | 7.8 | 11 | 2020 TH6 | 2021-Oct-19 | 7.3 LD | 5.9 | 6 | 2021 TX2 | 2021-Oct-19 | 9 LD | 10.7 | 33 | 2021 TX14 | 2021-Oct-19 | 1.3 LD | 10.6 | 17 | 2021 TL20 | 2021-Oct-19 | 12.4 LD | 22.5 | 67 | 1996 VB3 | 2021-Oct-20 | 8.8 LD | 15.3 | 135 | 2021 TV3 | 2021-Oct-21 | 13.2 LD | 12.6 | 47 | 2021 TE4 | 2021-Oct-21 | 8.3 LD | 6 | 15 | 2021 SG2 | 2021-Oct-21 | 15.9 LD | 5.9 | 25 | 2021 RE10 | 2021-Oct-21 | 15.5 LD | 5.1 | 56 | 2021 TE1 | 2021-Oct-23 | 9.5 LD | 12.4 | 47 | 2017 SJ20 | 2021-Oct-25 | 18.7 LD | 15.7 | 120 | 2021 TO15 | 2021-Oct-25 | 7.3 LD | 12.6 | 33 | 2019 UW6 | 2021-Oct-26 | 8 LD | 11.1 | 17 | 2009 WY7 | 2021-Nov-02 | 19.2 LD | 14.7 | 54 | 2021 TJ14 | 2021-Nov-02 | 19 LD | 9.6 | 40 | 2017 TS3 | 2021-Nov-02 | 13.9 LD | 9.9 | 131 | 2005 VL1 | 2021-Nov-04 | 17 LD | 5.2 | 18 | 2020 KA | 2021-Nov-06 | 14.9 LD | 4.8 | 11 | 2021 SP3 | 2021-Nov-08 | 15.6 LD | 9.3 | 70 | 2019 XS | 2021-Nov-09 | 1.5 LD | 10.7 | 65 | 2017 WG14 | 2021-Nov-10 | 18.6 LD | 11.6 | 45 | 2007 VD138 | 2021-Nov-12 | 16 LD | 7.7 | 44 | 2004 UE | 2021-Nov-13 | 11.1 LD | 13.2 | 224 | 2016 VR | 2021-Nov-15 | 8 LD | 8.7 | 20 | 2010 VK139 | 2021-Nov-15 | 6.4 LD | 13.9 | 65 | 2019 VL5 | 2021-Nov-15 | 8.6 LD | 8 | 23 | 2021 TR15 | 2021-Nov-19 | 11.8 LD | 7 | 39 | 2016 JG12 | 2021-Nov-20 | 14.4 LD | 7.5 | 112 | 2021 KH2 | 2021-Nov-21 | 19.3 LD | 6.5 | 31 | 3361 | 2021-Nov-21 | 15.1 LD | 8.1 | 511 | 2014 WF201 | 2021-Nov-24 | 13.2 LD | 5.5 | 27 | 2009 WB105 | 2021-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 | 2019 BB5 | 2021-Nov-25 | 18.8 LD | 8.3 | 16 | 1994 WR12 | 2021-Nov-29 | 16.1 LD | 8.8 | 123 | 4660 | 2021-Dec-11 | 10.3 LD | 6.6 | 774 | 2019 XQ1 | 2021-Dec-13 | 14.1 LD | 9.1 | 30 | 2004 YC | 2021-Dec-15 | 18.4 LD | 8.1 | 27 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation: Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time. Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes: In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! 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