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QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: The sun remains relatively quiet for the third day in a row despite the presence of multiple large sunspot groups. NOAA forecasters say there is a 15% chance the calm will end with an M-class solar flare on Aug. 17th. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
NEW COMET ALERT: A hyperbolic comet is falling into our solar system. Japanese amateur astronomer Hideo Nishimura discovered it just a few days ago in the constellation Gemini. Although it is relatively dim right now (magnitude +9), Comet Nishimura (C/2023 P1) could soon brighten more than 100-fold to become a naked-eye object in mid-September.
Above: A sky map with an inset photo of the comet from Dan Bartlett of June Lake, CA
A "hyperbolic comet" is a comet with too much energy to remain trapped inside the solar system. It will visit us only once, with the sun acting as a gravitational slingshot, sending the comet hurtling back into deep space after its flyby. Does that mean Comet Nishimura is an interstellar comet? Not necessarily. It might have come from the Oort Cloud. Indeed, that is more likely.
Because this is Comet Nishimura's first trip to the inner solar system, it is extra unpredictable. On Sept. 18th, the comet will make its closest approach to the sun deep inside the orbit of Mercury. Anything could happen when intense sunlight touches the comet's pristine surface for the first time. Possibilities range from dramatic brightening to a disappointing fizzle. Standard models suggest a peak brightness of 3rd magnitude. This would make it visible to the naked eye from rural areas.
Monitoring is encouraged. Comet Nishimura can be found in the pre-dawn sky using backyard telescopes larger than 6 inches. A date of particular interest is Aug. 25th when the comet lines up with Gemini's brightest stars, Castor and Pollux, making it particularly easy to find. Sky maps: Aug. 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25. Ephemeris: from JPL.
Realtime Comet Photo Gallery
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THE WILSON EFFECT: The air in the French Alps was unusually steady on Aug. 15th when Thierry Legault pointed his telescope at the sun and captured a phenomenon rarely seen by amateur astronomers. It's called the "Wilson effect:"
"The sunspot's umbra is lower than the average solar surface, with surrounding penumbral filaments dipping down into it," says Legault. "The filaments are visible on the far edge of the 'bowl,' but not on the near edge, highlighting the depression."
Scottish astronomer Alexander Wilson discovered the effect in 1769 during Solar Cycle 2. In daily observations, he noticed that sunspots approaching the sun's limb were foreshortened and often appeared to be sunken or depressed in the middle. (The same observations proved that sunspots were features on the solar surface, not, say, dark satellites orbiting just above the sun.)
The Wilson effect has been debated for more than 250 years. Is it real? Some researchers in the 1950s argued that it was a purely psychological effect. Others retorted that observers couldn't be crazy; there was too much photographic evidence. Although the cause of the Wilson effect is still debated, many modern researchers take it at face value: Sunspots are shallow depressions. One idea holds that high pressure systems trapped in the magnetic canopies of sunspots press down on the underlying umbra, creating a dark bowl.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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FANTASTIC DRAGON SPACE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the Fantastic Dragon Space Pendant. This one hitched a ride onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon, reaching an altitude of 117,524 ft:
You can have it for $124.95. The pendant is hand-crafted with colorful enamel inlaid on a hypoallergenic dragon exoskeleton. It makes a great gift for anyone who loves fantasy and dragonlore.
The students are selling space pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Aug 17, 2023, the network reported 23 fireballs.
(15 Perseids, 7 sporadics, 1 kappa Cygnid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On August 17, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2023 PP1 | 2023-Aug-13 | 16.8 LD | 8.4 | 29 |
2023 PB1 | 2023-Aug-13 | 4.1 LD | 15.5 | 19 |
2023 OE5 | 2023-Aug-14 | 4 LD | 3.9 | 19 |
2023 PA1 | 2023-Aug-14 | 6.6 LD | 20.2 | 31 |
2023 PQ | 2023-Aug-14 | 2 LD | 14.8 | 36 |
2023 PS | 2023-Aug-14 | 6.6 LD | 7.9 | 17 |
2023 PC | 2023-Aug-14 | 13.3 LD | 5.3 | 43 |
2023 PX | 2023-Aug-15 | 13 LD | 7.6 | 27 |
2023 PH1 | 2023-Aug-16 | 5.2 LD | 6 | 10 |
2022 CP1 | 2023-Aug-17 | 13.8 LD | 9.8 | 12 |
2023 PZ | 2023-Aug-17 | 1.4 LD | 1.6 | 5 |
2023 PD1 | 2023-Aug-18 | 15.3 LD | 7.5 | 30 |
2011 QJ21 | 2023-Aug-19 | 13 LD | 15.1 | 45 |
2023 PM1 | 2023-Aug-21 | 8.2 LD | 18.6 | 69 |
2023 PM | 2023-Aug-22 | 9.5 LD | 7 | 62 |
6037 | 2023-Aug-23 | 15.9 LD | 14.3 | 571 |
2012 PZ17 | 2023-Aug-30 | 16.8 LD | 3.6 | 16 |
2017 BY32 | 2023-Sep-02 | 16.4 LD | 3.5 | 19 |
2021 JA5 | 2023-Sep-06 | 13.3 LD | 10.9 | 19 |
2020 GE | 2023-Sep-08 | 14.9 LD | 1.4 | 8 |
2020 RT2 | 2023-Sep-12 | 11 LD | 10 | 8 |
2016 LY48 | 2023-Sep-16 | 5 LD | 10.8 | 99 |
2010 TE | 2023-Sep-16 | 6.8 LD | 6 | 22 |
523598 | 2023-Sep-20 | 19.8 LD | 25 | 239 |
2019 SF6 | 2023-Sep-26 | 16.7 LD | 8.6 | 20 |
2013 TG6 | 2023-Sep-28 | 3.6 LD | 4.1 | 17 |
2009 UG | 2023-Sep-30 | 6.1 LD | 9 | 78 |
349507 | 2023-Oct-03 | 16.5 LD | 21 | 696 |
2022 FX1 | 2023-Oct-04 | 20 LD | 9.9 | 25 |
2022 TD | 2023-Oct-07 | 8.9 LD | 9.4 | 10 |
2018 ER1 | 2023-Oct-08 | 12.5 LD | 5.3 | 27 |
2022 UX1 | 2023-Oct-11 | 3.1 LD | 8.6 | 9 |
2015 KW120 | 2023-Oct-12 | 18.2 LD | 13 | 22 |
2021 NT14 | 2023-Oct-13 | 18.6 LD | 8.6 | 254 |
2011 GA | 2023-Oct-15 | 6.8 LD | 16.6 | 230 |
2007 SQ6 | 2023-Oct-15 | 19.4 LD | 6.5 | 130 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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