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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 300.5 km/sec
density: 18.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A1
2224 UT Oct12
24-hr: A5
0021 UT Oct12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 12 Oct 20
New-cycle sunspots AR2774 and AR2775 are in decay and pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 15
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 12 Oct 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 203 days (71%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 12 Oct 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.63
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 12 Oct 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 73 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 12 Oct 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.6% High
48-hr change: -0.0%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 12 Oct 2020 @ 1600 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.6 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 12 Oct 20

There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now and then, Earth has no noctilucent clouds.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Oct 12 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
05 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
15 %
15 %
SEVERE
10 %
10 %
 
Monday, Oct. 12, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

THE ORIONID METEOR SHOWER: This weekend, a small piece of Halley's Comet disintegrated over Florida. NASA all-sky cameras recorded the fireball. This is a sign that the Orionid meteor shower is about to begin. Forecasters expect the shower to peak on Oct. 20th when Earth passes through the heart of Halley's debris stream. As many as 20 meteors per hour are possible during the hours before dawn: sky map.

AURORAS WITHOUT A SOLAR STORM: Yesterday, there was no solar flare, no coronal mass ejection (CME), no solar activity of any kind. Then this happened:

"On Oct. 11th we saw this amazing outburst," reports Markus Varik of Tromsø Norway. "We headed out with a small group of adventurers on what seemed like Mission Impossible. There was no hope of finding auroras. But never say 'never.' We got the complete palette of colors."

There is an explanation: Just as Varik headed out, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Slow-moving solar wind poured through the gap, sparking auroras. This kind of unpredictable display can happen at any time around the Arctic Circle, where magnetic cracks often surprise observers--no solar storm required. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE CLOUDS OF MARS: Mars is currently having its closest approach to Earth until 2035, and the view is amazing. Andrea Maniero sends this picture from Padova, Italy:

"Look at all the clouds," says Maniero. "They are visible in several locations around the planet."

Indeed, Maniero's photo, taken with a 14-inch telescope, shows orographic clouds over the Tharsis volcanoes, sunrise clouds over the planet's morning limb, and winter clouds over the Martian north pole. The only quadrant not covered by some clouds is the south pole. It is marked instead by a circular mass of bright white ice--the South Polar Cap. Click here for labels.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE PINK AURORA PEARL: Inspired by the color of rare pink auroras, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a pink pearl to the stratosphere on Sept. 25th. It hitched a ride onboard the students' cosmic ray balloon, and reached an altitude 112,205 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

You can have it for $249.95. The students are selling space pearls to support their cosmic ray monitoring program. Measuring 9 mm in diameter, the Aurora Pearl is mounted on a 925 sterling silver infinity twist and suspended on a matching 17 inch long sterling silver chain. Each pearl comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Mars Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Oct. 12, 2020, the network reported 21 fireballs.
(20 sporadics, 1 Southern Taurid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On October 12, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 RK2
2020-Oct-07
10 LD
6.7
48
2020 TT1
2020-Oct-07
3.1 LD
14
14
2020 TB
2020-Oct-07
11.5 LD
7.8
41
2019 SB6
2020-Oct-07
11.9 LD
7.6
16
2020 TD2
2020-Oct-08
4.1 LD
16
28
2020 SR6
2020-Oct-08
7.1 LD
5.3
27
2020 SX3
2020-Oct-08
4.4 LD
10.9
53
2020 TP1
2020-Oct-08
1 LD
16.3
16
2020 TW2
2020-Oct-08
5 LD
9
16
2008 TY9
2020-Oct-08
18.2 LD
5.7
37
2020 TA1
2020-Oct-09
15.5 LD
7.1
25
2020 RO1
2020-Oct-09
17.4 LD
3.2
30
2020 TV2
2020-Oct-09
6.5 LD
13.6
22
2020 TN
2020-Oct-10
10.3 LD
9.4
16
2020 TZ
2020-Oct-10
4.4 LD
9.2
11
2020 TS1
2020-Oct-12
0.7 LD
4.2
5
2020 TR1
2020-Oct-12
3.3 LD
8.8
13
2020 TA3
2020-Oct-13
13.2 LD
6.4
18
2018 GD2
2020-Oct-13
16.4 LD
6.7
5
2020 TD
2020-Oct-14
18.9 LD
14.4
47
2020 TO2
2020-Oct-14
3.2 LD
12.8
18
2020 TU2
2020-Oct-14
16.5 LD
13.5
55
2020 RM6
2020-Oct-15
13 LD
7.7
37
2020 TE2
2020-Oct-16
6.4 LD
5.8
19
2020 TG
2020-Oct-17
16.7 LD
5.8
26
2020 TJ2
2020-Oct-19
5.3 LD
14.6
29
2017 UH5
2020-Oct-20
8.9 LD
5.9
18
2020 TC3
2020-Oct-20
13.4 LD
12.2
34
2020 SG3
2020-Oct-20
19.5 LD
5.3
37
2018 VG
2020-Oct-21
15.1 LD
6.7
12
2020 TX1
2020-Oct-22
16.1 LD
8
23
2020 TG1
2020-Oct-22
18.4 LD
13.7
63
2017 TK6
2020-Oct-24
17.3 LD
12.4
41
2008 GM2
2020-Oct-25
17.7 LD
3.6
8
2020 QD5
2020-Oct-26
10.1 LD
8.6
80
2020 TQ2
2020-Oct-27
16.3 LD
5.2
26
2020 OK5
2020-Oct-29
6.4 LD
1.3
28
2020 TR2
2020-Oct-29
8.9 LD
14.5
54
2018 VP1
2020-Nov-02
1.1 LD
9.7
2
2020 HF4
2020-Nov-03
16.2 LD
2.9
11
2010 JL88
2020-Nov-05
10.5 LD
15.7
16
2020 TY1
2020-Nov-07
14.9 LD
13.2
106
2019 XS
2020-Nov-07
15.5 LD
9.4
51
2018 VS4
2020-Nov-09
14.9 LD
10.1
25
2020 ST1
2020-Nov-14
19.1 LD
8.1
154
2019 VL5
2020-Nov-15
8.5 LD
8.2
23
2017 WJ16
2020-Nov-23
5 LD
4.8
49
2018 RQ4
2020-Nov-26
8.1 LD
7.4
15
2020 KZ2
2020-Nov-28
5.7 LD
3.9
10
153201
2020-Nov-29
11.2 LD
25.1
490
2020 SO
2020-Dec-01
0.1 LD
3.9
7
2019 XH2
2020-Dec-02
16.1 LD
6.4
6
2018 PK21
2020-Dec-08
12.2 LD
3.1
23
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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