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SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: A geomagnetic storm (G1-G3) that sparked auroras as far south as Arizona and Texas on Oct. 7th and 8th is finally over. If you missed the show, good news: More auroras are in the offing. The sun just launched another CME directly toward Earth, and it could cause a severe G4-class storm when it arrives on Oct. 10th. Keep reading... Aurora alerts: SMS Text
POWERFUL X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR3848 was directly facing Earth this morning, Oct. 8th (0156 UTC), when it unleashed a powerful X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
This explosion lasted more than five hours, long enough to lift a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. SOHO coronagraphs have since detected a bright, fast-moving CME heading directly toward Earth. NOAA and NASA models agree that the CME will strike our planet late on Oct. 10th. NOAA forecasters say that a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is possible when the CME arrives.
This movie from SOHO is quite remarkable. It shows not only the CME, but also Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS passing close to the sun:
The CME will hit the comet before it hits Earth, probably later today. The impact could rip off the comet's tail. The same thing happened to Comet Encke in April 2007. A bent or broken tail is something astronomers should look for when Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS emerges from the sun's glare this weekend.
Stay tuned for updates about this developing story! CME impact alerts: SMS Text
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THE GEOMAGNETIC MOONCAT: This cat has experienced a geomagnetic storm. Multiple CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field during the weekend of August 10-11. Students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon into the resulting severe geomagnetic storm. The Geomagnetic Mooncat went along for the ride.:
You can have it for $199.95. Supported by a sterling silver frame, the black cat is curled around a genuine blue moonstone. It floated through the stratosphere for almost 3 hours during the storm, gathering radiation data for the students' monitoring program. The Mooncat comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and explaining the radiation experiment.
The students of Earth to Sky Calculus are selling space jewelry to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Don't wait for Christmas--get yours now!
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
DAYLIGHT PHOTO OF COMET TSUCHINSHAN-ATLAS: This week, Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS is passing almost directly between Earth and the sun. Many astronomers thought it might be possible to photograph the comet in broad daylight. Petr Horálek did it, but it wasn't easy:
"It was quite a process," says Horalek. "First, I blocked the sun using a circular handmade Baader Astrossolar filter. Then I took 62 extremely fast exposures (1/6400 s, f2.8, ISO 100), which I stacked by median/mean to avoid any other objects flying in the view--especially spider threads flying through the air, which is typical of this central European season. Dark frames were taken and applied, too. As a side effect of using the filter, you can see some big sunspots."
"The comet was invisible to the naked eye," he adds. "This picture is extremely enhanced and the comet's core is 50 percent sharpened to improve visibility."
In mid-Jan. 2007, many observers saw Comet McNaught in broad daylight. Its fan-shaped tail in blue sky was visible to the naked eye. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS fell just short of repeating that performance because it was 2 magnitudes dimmer than McNaught.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On 0ct 08, 2024, the network reported 28 fireballs.
(27 sporadics, 1 daytime Sextantid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On October 9, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: | Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
| 2024 SR1 | 2024-Oct-04 | 5.7 LD | 5.9 | 12 |
| 2024 TT2 | 2024-Oct-04 | 2.6 LD | 16.9 | 17 |
| 2024 TY5 | 2024-Oct-04 | 4.7 LD | 14.3 | 19 |
| 2024 TL3 | 2024-Oct-04 | 0.5 LD | 19.2 | 3 |
| 2024 TW | 2024-Oct-04 | 2.5 LD | 10.7 | 6 |
| 2024 TS2 | 2024-Oct-04 | 0.5 LD | 15.9 | 14 |
| 2024 TB4 | 2024-Oct-04 | 13.1 LD | 16.2 | 34 |
| 2024 TP2 | 2024-Oct-04 | 12.6 LD | 9.7 | 21 |
| 2024 TF | 2024-Oct-04 | 0.8 LD | 6 | 5 |
| 2024 TJ | 2024-Oct-04 | 3.9 LD | 12.3 | 16 |
| 2024 SY4 | 2024-Oct-04 | 9.8 LD | 4.9 | 9 |
| 2024 TD6 | 2024-Oct-05 | 0.5 LD | 3.8 | 4 |
| 2024 RJ32 | 2024-Oct-05 | 7.6 LD | 6.6 | 36 |
| 2024 SL3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 8.2 LD | 12.6 | 19 |
| 2024 TL5 | 2024-Oct-05 | 4.8 LD | 6.1 | 11 |
| 2023 GM1 | 2024-Oct-05 | 15.4 LD | 5.2 | 13 |
| 2024 TM3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 0.1 LD | 16.7 | 2 |
| 2024 SY5 | 2024-Oct-05 | 4.3 LD | 6 | 9 |
| 2024 SZ1 | 2024-Oct-05 | 11 LD | 20.3 | 36 |
| 2024 TO2 | 2024-Oct-05 | 13.7 LD | 15.2 | 24 |
| 2014 VA | 2024-Oct-05 | 18.1 LD | 6.3 | 46 |
| 2024 SH3 | 2024-Oct-05 | 19 LD | 8.2 | 24 |
| 2022 SU21 | 2024-Oct-06 | 17.5 LD | 21.1 | 45 |
| 2024 TD | 2024-Oct-06 | 9.7 LD | 10.9 | 15 |
| 2024 TL2 | 2024-Oct-06 | 0.3 LD | 9.1 | 3 |
| 2024 SD6 | 2024-Oct-06 | 4.8 LD | 6.8 | 11 |
| 2022 FC5 | 2024-Oct-06 | 16.2 LD | 19.3 | 39 |
| 2024 TR4 | 2024-Oct-07 | 0.3 LD | 15.1 | 15 |
| 671076 | 2024-Oct-07 | 12.8 LD | 8.6 | 120 |
| 2024 SU3 | 2024-Oct-07 | 5.6 LD | 9 | 22 |
| 2024 TY | 2024-Oct-07 | 1.8 LD | 15.2 | 21 |
| 2024 SF5 | 2024-Oct-07 | 15.3 LD | 4.8 | 36 |
| 2024 TX6 | 2024-Oct-07 | 0.3 LD | 11 | 7 |
| 2024 TO6 | 2024-Oct-07 | 1.5 LD | 17.6 | 13 |
| 2024 TW2 | 2024-Oct-07 | 0.8 LD | 16.9 | 7 |
| 2024 TT3 | 2024-Oct-07 | 16.8 LD | 6.9 | 12 |
| 2024 SN8 | 2024-Oct-08 | 3.2 LD | 14 | 24 |
| 2016 JG38 | 2024-Oct-08 | 13.2 LD | 12 | 56 |
| 2024 TK5 | 2024-Oct-09 | 0.6 LD | 9.1 | 10 |
| 2024 TN5 | 2024-Oct-09 | 5.1 LD | 7.2 | 9 |
| 2018 QE | 2024-Oct-09 | 1.7 LD | 4.4 | 10 |
| 2024 TK3 | 2024-Oct-09 | 9.9 LD | 11.7 | 18 |
| 2024 TD3 | 2024-Oct-09 | 9.7 LD | 9.3 | 32 |
| 2024 TJ2 | 2024-Oct-09 | 5 LD | 11.2 | 14 |
| 2024 TK2 | 2024-Oct-09 | 2.8 LD | 14.6 | 32 |
| 2024 SM | 2024-Oct-10 | 7.4 LD | 6.7 | 29 |
| 2024 TN2 | 2024-Oct-10 | 10.5 LD | 22.2 | 32 |
| 2024 TW1 | 2024-Oct-10 | 12.3 LD | 10.2 | 25 |
| 2024 TR2 | 2024-Oct-11 | 13.4 LD | 11.2 | 28 |
| 2024 TA3 | 2024-Oct-11 | 12.5 LD | 7.3 | 16 |
| 2024 TU1 | 2024-Oct-11 | 6 LD | 8.4 | 22 |
| 2024 TG5 | 2024-Oct-11 | 1.5 LD | 7.8 | 11 |
| 363027 | 2024-Oct-12 | 9.3 LD | 16.6 | 419 |
| 2024 TU2 | 2024-Oct-12 | 16.2 LD | 5.1 | 15 |
| 2024 TB7 | 2024-Oct-12 | 1.3 LD | 8 | 5 |
| 2020 GE1 | 2024-Oct-12 | 20.1 LD | 4.3 | 14 |
| 2024 TC2 | 2024-Oct-12 | 6.4 LD | 7.8 | 18 |
| 2022 UX1 | 2024-Oct-12 | 19.9 LD | 9.9 | 9 |
| 2008 UU95 | 2024-Oct-12 | 13.5 LD | 15.6 | 66 |
| 2024 TO5 | 2024-Oct-12 | 17.5 LD | 11.7 | 20 |
| 2024 TM2 | 2024-Oct-12 | 3.6 LD | 5.7 | 8 |
| 2024 TX5 | 2024-Oct-13 | 11.9 LD | 6.5 | 19 |
| 2024 TA7 | 2024-Oct-13 | 1.4 LD | 8.6 | 13 |
| 2024 SM4 | 2024-Oct-13 | 18.9 LD | 13.8 | 57 |
| 2021 TK11 | 2024-Oct-14 | 8 LD | 10.6 | 7 |
| 2024 TH3 | 2024-Oct-14 | 12 LD | 7 | 17 |
| 2024 TO4 | 2024-Oct-15 | 4.6 LD | 6.1 | 14 |
| 2022 TB41 | 2024-Oct-15 | 10 LD | 6 | 4 |
| 2024 SD2 | 2024-Oct-17 | 10.1 LD | 6.1 | 27 |
| 2019 UH14 | 2024-Oct-17 | 8.3 LD | 10.4 | 62 |
| 2024 RV50 | 2024-Oct-18 | 19.4 LD | 15.6 | 220 |
| 2024 SH1 | 2024-Oct-20 | 6.4 LD | 2.7 | 15 |
| 2024 SE4 | 2024-Oct-22 | 6.9 LD | 2.2 | 10 |
| 2015 HM1 | 2024-Oct-24 | 14.4 LD | 10.9 | 32 |
| 2024 TR6 | 2024-Oct-24 | 14.8 LD | 15.2 | 43 |
| 363305 | 2024-Oct-24 | 11.8 LD | 4.9 | 186 |
| 2021 UE2 | 2024-Oct-24 | 13.6 LD | 7.1 | 40 |
| 2023 TG14 | 2024-Oct-24 | 6.6 LD | 6.9 | 24 |
| 2024 TB2 | 2024-Oct-26 | 3.1 LD | 2.9 | 35 |
| 2007 UT3 | 2024-Oct-26 | 17.7 LD | 10.4 | 23 |
| 2024 SE26 | 2024-Oct-28 | 9.8 LD | 12.6 | 107 |
| 2020 WG | 2024-Oct-28 | 8.7 LD | 9.4 | 160 |
| 2024 SU13 | 2024-Oct-29 | 11 LD | 6 | 29 |
| 2021 CV1 | 2024-Oct-30 | 14.4 LD | 23.6 | 38 |
| 2023 KX3 | 2024-Oct-31 | 18.8 LD | 2.4 | 25 |
| 2022 UD21 | 2024-Oct-31 | 11.4 LD | 11.8 | 27 |
| 2016 VA | 2024-Nov-01 | 1.5 LD | 21.2 | 11 |
| 2023 VS | 2024-Nov-04 | 15.2 LD | 4.3 | 4 |
| 2022 JM | 2024-Nov-06 | 19.7 LD | 6.2 | 6 |
| 2019 WB7 | 2024-Nov-11 | 17.3 LD | 5.7 | 47 |
| 2020 UL3 | 2024-Nov-12 | 4.1 LD | 10.5 | 81 |
| 2020 AB2 | 2024-Nov-13 | 18.9 LD | 7.2 | 14 |
| 2019 VU5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 12 LD | 23.3 | 46 |
| 2019 VL5 | 2024-Nov-14 | 9.6 LD | 8.5 | 24 |
| 2023 WK3 | 2024-Nov-18 | 16.1 LD | 14.5 | 272 |
| 2012 KO11 | 2024-Nov-20 | 6.2 LD | 9.4 | 43 |
| 2020 VX4 | 2024-Nov-20 | 10.5 LD | 10.5 | 11 |
| 2009 WB105 | 2024-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 |
| 2006 WB | 2024-Nov-26 | 2.3 LD | 4.2 | 98 |
| 2018 DC4 | 2024-Nov-29 | 18.8 LD | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2019 JN2 | 2024-Nov-30 | 9.4 LD | 7.7 | 25 |
| 2021 XZ | 2024-Dec-02 | 13.2 LD | 7.4 | 8 |
| 447755 | 2024-Dec-03 | 14.4 LD | 12.2 | 395 |
| 2020 XR | 2024-Dec-04 | 5.8 LD | 12.3 | 372 |
| 2021 WA5 | 2024-Dec-05 | 9.8 LD | 5.9 | 12 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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