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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 350.5 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A7
1841 UT Nov07
24-hr: A7
1438 UT Nov07
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 07 Nov 19
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 07 Nov 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2019 total: 232 days (75%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 07 Nov 2019


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.01
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 07
Nov 2019

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 07 Nov 2019

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2019 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.7% High
7-day change: +0.5%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 07 Nov 2019 @ 1800 UT

Since 2015, Earth to Sky cosmic ray balloons launched weekly from California have also detected significant increases in atmospheric radiation. Dose rates reported below are in the stratosphere at approx. 100,000 ft.

California Cosmic Ray Balloons
Monitoring started in March 2015
now: 4.64 uGy/hr High
change since 2015: +19%
Max: 4.79 uGy/hr High
(10/2019)
Min: 3.80 uGy/hr Low (05/2015)
explanation | more data
Updated 19 Oct 2019 @ 0400 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.4 nT
Bz: -1.5 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 07 Nov 19

Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal h ole should reach Earth on ~Nov. 10th.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds is about to begin. Daily images from NASA's AIM spacecraft have resumed.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 11-06-2019 14:55:07 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2019 Nov 07 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2019 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
10 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
15 %
15 %
SEVERE
10 %
10 %
 
Thursday, Nov. 7, 2019
What's up in space
       
 

Solar minimum is here - but even now strangely beautiful auroras are dancing around the poles. Deep inside the Arctic Circle, the expert guides of Aurora Holidays in Utsjoki, Finland, can help you chase them. Book now!

 

SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A new hole is opening in the sun's atmosphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind toward Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 10-11. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for extra-bright auroras on those dates. Aurora Alerts: SMS Text.

SIGNS OF LIFE FROM SOLAR CYCLE 25: Big things have small beginnings. Years from now, observers may look back from the perch of a new Solar Maximum and realize that the action began on Nov. 5, 2019, with a very small solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:

This is a B1-class solar flare--that is, relatively small, ~1000 times weaker than the intense X-flares of Solar Maximum. It is significant not because of its intensity, but rather because of its origin. It came from AR2750, an active region belonging to the next solar cycle.

Sunspot AR2750 first appeared in the sun's southern hemisphere on Nov. 1st, breaking a string of 28 spotless days. A picture of the emerging sunspot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun's surface from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

How do we know AR2750 belongs to the next solar cycle? Its magnetic polarity tells us so. Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale's Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2750 is therefore a member of new Solar Cycle 25.

Solar cycles always mix at their boundaries. So far this year, short-lived sunspots likely belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have been reported on May 28, July 1st, July 8th, and Nov. 1st. They were interspersed with a similar number of old Solar Cycle 24 spots. This type of mixing is normal.

The increasing frequency of new cycle sunspots does not mean Solar Minimum is finished. On the contrary, low solar activity will probably continue for at least another year. However, it does mean that new Solar Cycle 25 is slowly sputtering to life--a process that will accelerate in the years ahead. If forecasters are correct, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots will eventually dominate the solar disk, bringing a new Solar Maximum as early as 2023.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

A TAURID EXPLODES OVER AUSTRALIA: When the sun set over Swan Hill, Australia, on Nov. 6th, at first the sky began to darken as usual. And then ... it exploded. "I witnessed an incredible twilight fireball just as I just arrived home from work at 8:08 pm AEDT (9:08 UT) 7 minutes after local sunset," reports Michael Mattiazzo. "The fireball's magnitude was at least -8, closer to -10, and multiple outbursts were observed before it completely disintegrated."

"The sonic boom arrived about 3 minutes later, sounding like the rumble of thunder," he adds. "Local dogs were even barking at the sound. The vapour trail (pictured above) lasted about 25 minutes."

Mattiazzo says the fireball streaked from east to west across the sky. The direction marks it as a likely earthgrazing Taurid fireball.

This week, Earth is passing through a stream of debris from Comet Encke, source of the annual Taurid meteor shower. Gravel-sized meteoroids hitting Earth's upper atmosphere at 65,000 mph are creating a spray of bright meteors from the constellation Taurus.

Taurids are sometimes called "the Halloween fireballs" because they are most often noticed by crowds outdoors after dark on Halloween. In fact, they may be seen on any night from mid-October to mid-November. Typical Taurid meteor rates are no more than a few per hour but, sometimes, as Mattiazzo observed, one fireball is enough.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE STRATOSPHERIC CLOUD PENDANT: The most beautiful clouds on Earth are located in the stratosphere: Polar Stratospheric Clouds. Their extraordinary colors inspired this authentic Swarovski pendant--and it has been to the stratosphere! On Nov. 2, 2019, it hitched a ride 109,580 feet high on board an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon:

You can have it for $159.95. The students are selling Stratospheric Cloud Pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each heart-shaped pendant comes with a card showing it floating through the stratosphere like a real cloud, and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Nov. 07, 2019, the network reported 17 fireballs.
(13 sporadics, 4 northern Taurids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 7, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2019 UR12
2019-Nov-02
9.8 LD
6.7
47
2019 VV
2019-Nov-02
6.3 LD
8.7
31
2019 VW
2019-Nov-02
5.6 LD
4
16
2019 VU3
2019-Nov-02
9.3 LD
16.1
15
2019 VA
2019-Nov-02
0.3 LD
8.6
8
2019 VG3
2019-Nov-02
5.1 LD
9.4
9
2019 UU3
2019-Nov-02
13.3 LD
13.9
30
2015 JD1
2019-Nov-03
12.9 LD
11.9
269
2019 VS3
2019-Nov-03
5 LD
7
7
2019 VM2
2019-Nov-03
3.6 LD
15.1
14
2019 UL8
2019-Nov-03
2.8 LD
12.8
19
2019 UH3
2019-Nov-03
10.4 LD
8.5
25
2019 VB3
2019-Nov-04
11.7 LD
2.5
8
2019 VD
2019-Nov-04
0.5 LD
12
12
2019 VR
2019-Nov-04
0.4 LD
9.6
9
2019 VQ3
2019-Nov-05
12.3 LD
8.7
13
2019 VD3
2019-Nov-05
2.6 LD
9.4
24
2019 VO3
2019-Nov-05
13.8 LD
14.9
24
2019 UH5
2019-Nov-05
13.3 LD
3.5
12
2019 VU
2019-Nov-05
2.7 LD
15.3
12
2019 UE13
2019-Nov-06
8.3 LD
8.9
26
2019 UM13
2019-Nov-06
11.5 LD
5.9
17
2019 VR1
2019-Nov-06
2.9 LD
9.3
14
2019 VE3
2019-Nov-07
19.7 LD
31.3
77
2019 VA4
2019-Nov-07
11.2 LD
6.2
10
2019 UL4
2019-Nov-07
16.7 LD
9
30
2019 UO7
2019-Nov-07
3.8 LD
4.1
10
2019 VM1
2019-Nov-08
11.3 LD
6.1
19
2019 UM12
2019-Nov-08
1.3 LD
13.6
40
2019 UR4
2019-Nov-08
7.3 LD
4.5
15
2019 VE2
2019-Nov-09
7.1 LD
5
12
2019 VP3
2019-Nov-09
6.5 LD
9.4
9
2019 VT3
2019-Nov-10
9.5 LD
5.3
8
2019 UB7
2019-Nov-10
13.7 LD
17.5
56
2019 VX3
2019-Nov-11
4 LD
16
15
2019 VX2
2019-Nov-11
3.6 LD
6.2
6
2019 VN
2019-Nov-11
3.1 LD
13.6
32
2019 VW1
2019-Nov-12
15.3 LD
8.5
26
2019 VK3
2019-Nov-12
10.6 LD
19.5
26
2019 VN2
2019-Nov-12
16 LD
3.8
14
2010 JG
2019-Nov-12
19.6 LD
14.9
235
2019 UB14
2019-Nov-12
4.9 LD
15.4
22
2019 UH1
2019-Nov-13
9.5 LD
9.1
51
2019 UN12
2019-Nov-13
3.8 LD
28.8
146
2019 VX
2019-Nov-13
4.1 LD
10.8
31
2019 UE8
2019-Nov-15
7.7 LD
6.6
26
2019 UR2
2019-Nov-18
18 LD
13.4
128
2019 UK6
2019-Nov-20
15.4 LD
7.7
63
481394
2019-Nov-21
11.3 LD
7.9
372
2019 VK
2019-Nov-21
5.8 LD
7.6
42
2008 EA9
2019-Nov-23
10.5 LD
2.2
10
2019 VF1
2019-Nov-25
13.4 LD
17.3
89
2017 AP4
2019-Dec-03
8.5 LD
7.5
15
2018 XW2
2019-Dec-07
17.4 LD
13
28
216258
2019-Dec-20
15.3 LD
11.8
324
2013 XY20
2019-Dec-21
18.4 LD
1.9
28
2017 XQ60
2019-Dec-22
11 LD
15.6
47
310442
2019-Dec-26
19 LD
12.3
372
2019 AE3
2020-Jan-02
4.9 LD
8.2
13
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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