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FREE BALLOON FLIGHTS TO THE STRATOSPHERE: Hey, did your science class get cancelled? Are you stuck at home with nothing to do? Maybe now is the time to visit the stratosphere. We're giving away high-altitude balloon launches to students and citizen scientists who have good ideas for experiments. The program is called FREELIFT, and you're invited to participate.
COMET ATLAS MIGHT BE FRAGMENTING: Comet ATLAS (C/2019 Y4), what are you doing? New data from astronomers around the world show that the once-promising comet is beginning to fade. For Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC, it could be a classic case of "I told you so."
Comet ATLAS on March 28th. Credit: Tim Connolly of Plattsburgh, NY. [More images]
"Quoting myself from March 15th," says Battams, "'I wouldn't be surprised to see Comet ATLAS start to fade rapidly and possibly even disintegrate before reaching the sun.' I very much hope I’m wrong, but Comet Elenin did something similar several years ago, holding lots of promise and then just… fizzling."
In recent months, Comet ATLAS galvanized astronomers as it fell toward the sun, skyrocketing in brightness like few comets before it. By late May 2020 it promised to rival Venus in the sunset sky. But recent developments belie that possibility.
On April 6th, astronomers Quanzhi Ye of the University of Maryland) and Qicheng Zhang of Caltech reported new images of Comet ATLAS, in which the comet's core appears to be elongating--"as would be expected from a major disruption of the nucleus," they wrote in an Astronomical Telegram.
Images from the 0.6-m Ningbo Education Xinjiang Telescope show a possible fragmentation of ATLAS's core
"It's possible that this is the beginning of the end," says Battams.
Recent measurements of the comet's position also point to trouble. Battams explains: "The comet's orbit is now being influenced by 'non-gravitational' forces. These forces are the result of gases lifting off the comet nucleus and causing the nucleus to move very slightly in the opposite direction--sort of like a jet engine. Most active comets experience this to some degree, but ATLAS's non-gravitational forces have kicked in very abruptly and are quite strong. This supports a narrative of a small nucleus being pushed very strongly by extreme outgassing, possibly along with fragmentation."
"Finally, let's not forget that ATLAS is a fragment of a larger (unidentified) comet also related to the Great Comet of 1844," says Battams. "Fragmenting is a family trait for these guys."
Is Comet ATLAS doomed? Not necessarily. "The frustrating thing about comets is we often don't know exactly what they're doing or why they're doing it. There's still a chance that Comet ATLAS is just 'taking a breather' before another outburst," says Battams. "But I wouldn't count on it...."
No matter what happens, amateur astronomers are encouraged to monitor developments. Submit your images here.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
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A MOTHER'S DAY GIFT FROM THE STRATOSPHERE: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Nothing says "I Love You" like an Infinity Pendant from the edge of space. On Jan. 8, 2020, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon. This authentic Swarovski crystal pendant hitched a ride, traveling 113,209 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California
You can have it for $179.95. The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. The glittering heart-shaped crystal is wrapped in a silver-embossed infinity clasp, symbolizing unending love. Each one comes with a romantic card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Apr. 06, 2020, the network reported 4 fireballs.
(4 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On April 6, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2020 GH1 | 2020-Apr-01 | 8.7 LD | 7.6 | 28 |
2020 GO1 | 2020-Apr-01 | 0.2 LD | 7.6 | 10 |
2020 FG6 | 2020-Apr-02 | 5.4 LD | 7.1 | 14 |
2019 GM1 | 2020-Apr-02 | 8.9 LD | 4.2 | 14 |
2020 FK3 | 2020-Apr-03 | 10.4 LD | 9.7 | 32 |
2020 GH | 2020-Apr-03 | 0.3 LD | 12.9 | 6 |
2020 GC | 2020-Apr-04 | 4.7 LD | 13.9 | 18 |
2015 FC35 | 2020-Apr-04 | 10.5 LD | 13.8 | 148 |
2020 FL6 | 2020-Apr-04 | 5.1 LD | 12.1 | 32 |
2020 GB | 2020-Apr-04 | 6.2 LD | 10.3 | 27 |
2020 GF | 2020-Apr-05 | 7.6 LD | 5.2 | 24 |
2020 GM | 2020-Apr-05 | 2.3 LD | 9.5 | 17 |
2020 DT3 | 2020-Apr-05 | 17.6 LD | 11.8 | 203 |
2020 GC1 | 2020-Apr-05 | 1.4 LD | 10.2 | 32 |
2020 GN | 2020-Apr-05 | 6 LD | 8.2 | 12 |
2020 GV1 | 2020-Apr-05 | 6.5 LD | 9.3 | 9 |
2020 GE1 | 2020-Apr-06 | 3.7 LD | 4.6 | 14 |
2020 FQ6 | 2020-Apr-06 | 17.9 LD | 11.2 | 37 |
2020 GN1 | 2020-Apr-06 | 7.7 LD | 6.5 | 13 |
2020 GB1 | 2020-Apr-06 | 1.1 LD | 8.3 | 15 |
2020 GQ1 | 2020-Apr-07 | 4.4 LD | 16.9 | 16 |
2020 GW1 | 2020-Apr-08 | 5.9 LD | 13.2 | 23 |
2020 GF1 | 2020-Apr-08 | 1.5 LD | 6.1 | 21 |
2020 FL4 | 2020-Apr-09 | 10.4 LD | 4.6 | 15 |
2015 GK | 2020-Apr-09 | 12.2 LD | 12.9 | 25 |
2020 FW4 | 2020-Apr-09 | 19.7 LD | 18.6 | 161 |
2020 GE | 2020-Apr-10 | 5.4 LD | 2.2 | 8 |
2019 HM | 2020-Apr-10 | 7.2 LD | 3.2 | 23 |
2020 GM1 | 2020-Apr-11 | 10.2 LD | 25.6 | 67 |
2020 GU1 | 2020-Apr-11 | 5.9 LD | 6.9 | 10 |
2020 GG | 2020-Apr-11 | 9.7 LD | 5.5 | 17 |
363599 | 2020-Apr-11 | 19.2 LD | 24.5 | 224 |
2020 FX3 | 2020-Apr-15 | 14.1 LD | 10.3 | 56 |
2020 FZ6 | 2020-Apr-15 | 20 LD | 21.7 | 189 |
2020 FV6 | 2020-Apr-19 | 10.8 LD | 19.7 | 88 |
2019 HS2 | 2020-Apr-26 | 13.6 LD | 12.6 | 17 |
2019 GF1 | 2020-Apr-27 | 18.7 LD | 3.2 | 12 |
2020 FM6 | 2020-Apr-27 | 14.3 LD | 16.9 | 156 |
52768 | 2020-Apr-29 | 16.4 LD | 8.7 | 2457 |
2020 DM4 | 2020-May-01 | 18.4 LD | 6.4 | 162 |
438908 | 2020-May-07 | 8.9 LD | 12.8 | 282 |
2016 HP6 | 2020-May-07 | 4.3 LD | 5.7 | 31 |
388945 | 2020-May-10 | 7.3 LD | 8.8 | 295 |
2000 KA | 2020-May-12 | 8.9 LD | 13.5 | 162 |
478784 | 2020-May-15 | 8.5 LD | 3.6 | 28 |
136795 | 2020-May-21 | 16.1 LD | 11.7 | 892 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.
E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.
The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.
To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:
In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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