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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): 2024 could begin with a geomagnetic storm. NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class storms are possible on Jan. 1st when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. They contain CME-like shock waves that do a good job sparking Arctic auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Mere hours after emerging over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 31st, big sunspot AR3536 erupted, producing a major X5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.
Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Ham radio operators may notice loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 60 minutes after the flare's peak (2155 UT).
It's too soon to know for sure, but this explosion probably launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Because the blast site is located near the extreme eastern edge of the sun, the CME is unlikely to have a significant Earth-directed component, but stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
Update: This explosion caused a solar tsunami. You can see the shock wave in this animation from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING: During the week before Christmas, a near-record cold wave hit the Arctic stratosphere. Temperatures as low as -75C created aurora-like polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) seen as far south as Italy. Now the opposite is happening. Suddenly, the Arctic stratosphere is warming:
NASA satellite data show the stratospheric temperature rapidly spiking, with above normal temperatures expected in the next few days. This is called a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. When the stratosphere warms in this way, it's a sign that the polar vortex is weakening, and might even change directions. Cold air bottled up in the Arctic can suddenly break free and spill down to lower latitudes. The famous Beast from the East coldwave that hit the UK in 2018 was caused by an SSW, albeit stronger than the one we're seeing now.
For sky watchers, this means no PSCs will be visible while the warming is in progress. The stratosphere is simply too hot for the icy clouds to form. Don't give up hope, though. This warming event is happening early in the season; there is plenty of time for another PSC-producing cold wave before northern winter is finished.
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AMBER DRAGONFLY SPACE PENDANT: This dragonfly has touched space. On Nov. 28th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon, 109,228 feet above California's Sierra Nevada:
You can have it for $179.95. Made of genuine Baltic Amber with a sterling silver exoskeleton, the pendant measures 1 1/4 inch and comes with a matching 18-inch sterling silver chain. The wings of the dragonfly include four pieces of natural amber colored Cognac, Olive Green and Honey Yellow.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec 30, 2023, the network reported 3 fireballs.
(2 sporadics, 1 December Leonis Minorid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On December 31, 2023 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2023 XO7 | 2023-Dec-26 | 6.3 LD | 6.7 | 23 |
2023 YD | 2023-Dec-28 | 1.6 LD | 9.9 | 27 |
2023 YZ | 2023-Dec-29 | 10 LD | 5.6 | 28 |
2023 YM | 2023-Dec-30 | 10.1 LD | 12.4 | 37 |
2023 XE12 | 2023-Dec-31 | 14.7 LD | 11.8 | 42 |
2021 AM6 | 2023-Dec-31 | 18.3 LD | 6.6 | 17 |
2023 YR1 | 2024-Jan-01 | 6.5 LD | 13.3 | 26 |
2023 YR | 2024-Jan-02 | 4.5 LD | 12.2 | 37 |
2019 KK5 | 2024-Jan-03 | 10.6 LD | 20.9 | 98 |
2002 AY1 | 2024-Jan-08 | 15.2 LD | 17.3 | 230 |
2023 XN13 | 2024-Jan-09 | 15.8 LD | 1.4 | 8 |
2023 XT14 | 2024-Jan-10 | 12.1 LD | 6.4 | 26 |
2023 YO1 | 2024-Jan-10 | 6.8 LD | 3.1 | 23 |
2020 AC1 | 2024-Jan-11 | 19.3 LD | 5.3 | 7 |
2023 WZ3 | 2024-Jan-11 | 16.2 LD | 4 | 35 |
2021 CZ2 | 2024-Jan-16 | 8 LD | 14.3 | 113 |
2021 BL3 | 2024-Jan-23 | 17.2 LD | 23.4 | 41 |
2017 BG92 | 2024-Jan-25 | 11.8 LD | 6.3 | 6 |
2011 CQ1 | 2024-Jan-26 | 11.3 LD | 4.6 | 1 |
2007 EG | 2024-Jan-30 | 16 LD | 8.6 | 43 |
2008 OS7 | 2024-Feb-02 | 7.5 LD | 18.2 | 285 |
2019 CC5 | 2024-Feb-04 | 19.2 LD | 15 | 139 |
2023 SP1 | 2024-Feb-07 | 14.3 LD | 11.8 | 256 |
2020 DK | 2024-Feb-12 | 8.9 LD | 9.9 | 22 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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