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MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMS UNDERWAY: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are underway on Dec. 30th following the impact of a CIR (co-rotating interaction region). CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving streams of solar wind. They contain shock waves and enhanced magnetic fields that often do a good job sparking high-latitude auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
COSMIC RAYS SINK TO A 6-YEAR LOW: Cosmic rays reaching Earth just hit a six-year low. Neutron counters in Oulu, Finland, registered the sudden decrease on Dec. 26th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field:
The CME swept aside galactic cosmic rays near our planet, abruptly reducing radiation levels. Researchers call this a "Forbush Decrease," after American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century.
The Dec. 26th event continues a trend that began in 2020. Since then, cosmic ray fluxes have been fitfully decreasing as one CME after another hit Earth. The reason is Solar Cycle 25, which began around that time and has been gaining strength. The Forbush Decreases are adding up.
Scott Forbush was the first to notice the yin-yang relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays. When one goes up, the other goes down. CMEs play a big role in this relationship. The solar storm clouds contain tangled magnetic fields that do a good job scattering cosmic rays away from our planet.
A recent paper in the Astrophysical Journal looked at the last two solar cycles and compared the daily rate of CMEs to the strength of cosmic rays near Earth. This plot shows the results:
At the peak of Solar Cycle 24, the sun was producing more than 5 CMEs per day. At the same time, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) dropped more than 60%.
Neutron counts are now at their lowest level since 2016. If current trends continue, cosmic ray levels will plunge even further in the years ahead, perhaps even lower than Solar Cycle 24. This is good news for astronauts and polar air travelers who will benefit from less radiation.
FAQ: Why neutrons? When cosmic rays strike Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that rain down on Earth. Among these particles are neutrons, which can make it all the way down to Earth's surface. Researchers at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, have been counting neutrons every day since 1964, providing an unparalleled record of cosmic rays for almost 60 years.
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COSMIC RAY YIN-YANG PENDANT: To celebrate the yin-yang relationship between solar activity and galactic cosmic rays, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a yin-yang pendant to the stratosphere. Here it is, flying 104,265 ft high onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $142.95. The pendant's sterling silver frame surrounds balancing swirls of black onyx and mother of pearl--all suspended from a matching 18-inch sterling silver chain. It makes a great anniversary, birthday or belated Christmas gift.
The students are selling yin-yang pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
LUNAR OCCULTATION OF MARS: Mark your calendar. On Jan. 30-31, 2023, the Moon will pass directly in front of Mars, producing an occultation visible across southern US states, all of Mexico and Central America.
At the time of the occultation, the gibbous Moon will be 74% illuminated. Mars will disappear behind the unilluminated side of the Moon and reappear from behind the illuminated side. Because Mars is so bright, it can be seen even near the bright edge of the Moon. Photo-op!
In Los Angeles, Mars will disappear at 20:36 PST and reappear at 21:30 PST on Jan. 30th. To find your local times, visit in-the-sky.org and set the location to your home town.
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Dec 30, 2022, the network reported 2 fireballs.
(1 Quadrantid, 1 sigma Serpentid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On December 30, 2022 there were 2321 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2022 YL1 | 2022-Dec-25 | 7.7 LD | 12.2 | 50 |
2022 YK3 | 2022-Dec-25 | 1.6 LD | 12.8 | 5 |
2022 YY1 | 2022-Dec-25 | 5.2 LD | 14.7 | 22 |
2013 YA14 | 2022-Dec-25 | 2.7 LD | 10.5 | 68 |
2022 TE14 | 2022-Dec-25 | 11.2 LD | 7 | 127 |
2022 YB1 | 2022-Dec-26 | 5.7 LD | 14.8 | 26 |
2022 YA6 | 2022-Dec-26 | 0.4 LD | 12.6 | 10 |
2022 YH5 | 2022-Dec-26 | 9.1 LD | 15.7 | 18 |
2019 LT5 | 2022-Dec-27 | 16.2 LD | 15 | 118 |
2022 YY3 | 2022-Dec-27 | 2.6 LD | 8.5 | 9 |
2022 YR4 | 2022-Dec-27 | 0.8 LD | 7.7 | 6 |
2022 YG1 | 2022-Dec-27 | 11.3 LD | 16.2 | 28 |
2022 WV9 | 2022-Dec-27 | 6.5 LD | 7.3 | 47 |
2022 YF6 | 2022-Dec-27 | 2.5 LD | 19.1 | 18 |
2010 XC15 | 2022-Dec-27 | 2 LD | 10.1 | 182 |
2022 XL1 | 2022-Dec-27 | 7.6 LD | 8.4 | 25 |
2022 YL | 2022-Dec-27 | 7.9 LD | 5.6 | 18 |
2021 AE | 2022-Dec-28 | 16.5 LD | 15 | 23 |
2022 YT6 | 2022-Dec-29 | 6 LD | 13.8 | 22 |
2022 YG5 | 2022-Dec-30 | 8.2 LD | 14.2 | 16 |
2022 YS6 | 2023-Jan-01 | 4.7 LD | 9.7 | 16 |
2022 YR1 | 2023-Jan-01 | 16.3 LD | 6 | 23 |
2022 YT3 | 2023-Jan-02 | 11.1 LD | 6.4 | 24 |
2022 YU3 | 2023-Jan-02 | 9.8 LD | 7.1 | 24 |
2022 YP5 | 2023-Jan-02 | 7.8 LD | 4.8 | 14 |
2021 NF | 2023-Jan-02 | 17.9 LD | 11.3 | 40 |
2022 YJ4 | 2023-Jan-03 | 5.3 LD | 5.6 | 15 |
2011 WR41 | 2023-Jan-03 | 15.8 LD | 8.9 | 34 |
2019 AY3 | 2023-Jan-04 | 16.8 LD | 19.7 | 62 |
2022 YS4 | 2023-Jan-04 | 6 LD | 6.8 | 27 |
2022 YL4 | 2023-Jan-05 | 5.2 LD | 2 | 11 |
2022 YN1 | 2023-Jan-06 | 18.3 LD | 5.5 | 54 |
2021 TL | 2023-Jan-09 | 14.2 LD | 8.5 | 75 |
2022 YD5 | 2023-Jan-12 | 8.3 LD | 10.6 | 45 |
2022 YZ2 | 2023-Jan-12 | 16.6 LD | 6.5 | 86 |
2022 YS5 | 2023-Jan-13 | 15.6 LD | 6 | 42 |
2014 LJ | 2023-Jan-14 | 4.8 LD | 3.5 | 7 |
2022 YH3 | 2023-Jan-14 | 19 LD | 16.3 | 90 |
2012 BV13 | 2023-Jan-16 | 12.2 LD | 6.7 | 134 |
2020 BP | 2023-Jan-20 | 5.2 LD | 16.9 | 26 |
2019 BO2 | 2023-Jan-24 | 12.1 LD | 16.2 | 21 |
2019 BZ4 | 2023-Jan-24 | 16.5 LD | 5.6 | 20 |
2020 BZ14 | 2023-Jan-26 | 8.8 LD | 6.7 | 54 |
2022 SO113 | 2023-Jan-29 | 10.5 LD | 3.5 | 73 |
2017 DU34 | 2023-Feb-02 | 13.3 LD | 11.2 | 16 |
367789 | 2023-Feb-03 | 4.7 LD | 9.9 | 149 |
2020 OO1 | 2023-Feb-04 | 4.8 LD | 7.7 | 19 |
2022 YO6 | 2023-Feb-06 | 12.2 LD | 13.4 | 191 |
2022 CX1 | 2023-Feb-09 | 17.4 LD | 13.2 | 14 |
2021 EP4 | 2023-Feb-13 | 19 LD | 6.1 | 5 |
199145 | 2023-Feb-16 | 12 LD | 24.6 | 756 |
2022 RG | 2023-Feb-16 | 8.2 LD | 3 | 24 |
2020 DG4 | 2023-Feb-17 | 1.4 LD | 6.9 | 8 |
2020 CX1 | 2023-Feb-19 | 17.4 LD | 7.7 | 53 |
37638 | 2023-Feb-21 | 17 LD | 11.1 | 495 |
2012 DK31 | 2023-Feb-27 | 12.6 LD | 15.5 | 148 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
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| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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