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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 554.7 km/sec
density: 8.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A4
2332 UT Mar13
24-hr: A5
0318 UT Mar13
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 13 Mar 21
Sunspot AR2808 poses a slight threat for C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 15
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 13 Mar 2021

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2021 total: 32 days (44%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 13 Mar 2021


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 5.41
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 13 Mar 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 77 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 13 Mar 2021

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +8.7% High
48-hr change: -0.1%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 13 Mar 2021 @ 1700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4
unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.5 nT
Bz: -3.7 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
Coronal Holes: 13 Mar 21

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 13-14.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds is finished. Electric-blue clouds above Antarctica vanished on, approxiately, Feb. 22nd. The northern season should begin sometime in late May.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2021 Mar 13 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2021 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
25 %
10 %
MINOR
05 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
30 %
20 %
SEVERE
30 %
10 %
 
Saturday, Mar. 13, 2021
What's up in space
       
 

Safe aurora tours: Thinking of a visit to Norway? Marianne's Heaven on Earth Aurora Tours has a 7-seater minivan for families who don't require social distancing. See the Northern Lights or take a scenic day tour. Book here

 

SOUTHERN LIGHTS: A slow-moving but dense cloud of solar wind plasma hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of March 13th, sparking a display of Southern Lights. Bright aurora australis appeared over Hooper's Inlet and Invercargill, New Zealand. Northern sky watchers might see similar displays tonight as Earth enters a fast-moving (500+ km/s) stream of solar wind. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

THE GREAT QUEBEC BLACKOUT: They call it "the day the sun brought darkness." On March 13, 1989, a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field. Ninety seconds later, the Hydro-Québec power grid failed. During the 9 hour blackout that followed, millions of Quebecois found themselves with no light or heat, wondering what was going on?

"It was the biggest geomagnetic storm of the Space Age," says Dr. David Boteler, head of the Space Weather Group at Natural Resources Canada. "March 1989 has become the archetypal disturbance for understanding how solar activity can cause blackouts."


Above: Sunspot 5395, source of the March 1989 solar storms. From "A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm" by D. Boteler.

It seems hard to believe now, but in 1989 few people realized solar storms could bring down power grids. The warning bells had been ringing for more than a century, though. In Sept. 1859, a similar CME hit Earth's magnetic field--the infamous "Carrington Event"--sparking a storm twice as strong as March 1989. Electrical currents surged through Victorian-era telegraph wires, in some cases causing sparks and setting telegraph offices on fire. These were the same kind of currents that would bring down Hydro-Québec.

"The March 1989 blackout was a wake-up call for our industry," says Dr. Emanuel Bernabeu of PJM, a regional utility that coordinates the flow of electricity in 13 US states. "Now we take geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) very seriously."

What are GICs? Freshman physics 101: When a magnetic field swings back and forth, electricity flows through conductors in the area. It's called "magnetic induction." Geomagnetic storms do this to Earth itself. The rock and soil of our planet can conduct electricity. So when a CME rattles Earth's magnetic field, currents flow through the soil beneath our feet.

Québec is especially vulnerable. The province sits on an expanse of Precambrian igneous rock that does a poor job conducting electricity. When the March 13th CME arrived, storm currents found a more attractive path in the high-voltage transmission lines of Hydro-Québec. Unusual frequencies (harmonics) began to flow through the lines, transformers overheated and circuit breakers tripped.

Right: Grey areas indicate regions of igneous rock where power grids are most vulnerable. [full caption]

After darkness engulfed Quebec, bright auroras spread as far south as Florida, Texas, and Cuba. Reportedly, some onlookers thought they were witnessing a nuclear exchange. Others thought it had something to do with the space shuttle (STS-29), which remarkably launched on the same day. The astronauts were okay, although the shuttle did experience a mysterious problem with a fuel cell sensor that threatened to cut the mission short. NASA has never officially linked the sensor anomaly to the solar storm.

Much is still unknown about the March 1989 event. It occurred long before modern satellites were monitoring the sun 24/7. To piece together what happened, Boteler has sifted through old records of radio emissions, magnetograms, and other 80s-era data sources. He recently published a paper in the research journal Space Weather summarizing his findings -- including a surprise:

"There were not one, but two CMEs," he says.

The sunspot that hurled the CMEs toward Earth, region 5395, was one of the most active sunspot groups ever observed. In the days around the Quebec blackout it produced more than a dozen M- and X-class solar flares. Two of the explosions (an X4.5 on March 10th and an M7.3 on March 12th) targeted Earth with CMEs.

"The first CME cleared a path for the second CME, allowing it to strike with unusual force," says Boteler. "The lights went out in Quebec just minutes after it arrived."

Among space weather researchers, there has been a dawning awareness in recent years that great geomagnetic storms such as the Carrington Event of 1859 and The Great Railroad Storm of May 1921 are associated with double (or multiple) CMEs, one clearing the path for another. Boteler's detective work shows that this is the case for March 1989 as well.

Right: Auroras over Pershore, England, during the March 13, 1989, geomagnetic storm. Credit: Geoffrey Morley.

The March 1989 event kicked off a flurry of conferences and engineering studies designed to fortify grids. Emanuel Bernabeu's job at PJM is largely a result of that "Québec epiphany." He works to protect power grids from space weather -- and he has some good news.

"We have made lots of progress," he says. "In fact, if the 1989 storm happened again today, I believe Québec would not lose power. The modern grid is designed to withstand an extreme 1-in-100 year geomagnetic event. To put that in perspective, March 1989 was only a 1-in-40 or 50 year event--well within our design specs."

Some of the improvements have come about by hardening equipment. For instance, Bernabeu says, "Utilities have upgraded their protection and control devices making them immune to type of harmonics that brought down Hydro-Québec. Some utilities have also installed series capacitor compensation, which blocks the flow of GICs."

Other improvements involve operational awareness. "We receive NOAA's space weather forecast in our control room, so we know when a storm is coming," he says. "For severe storms, we declare 'conservative operations.' In a nutshell, this is a way for us to posture the system to better handle the effects of geomagnetic activity. For instance, operators can limit large power transfers across critical corridors, cancel outages of critical equipment and so on."

The next Québec-level storm is just a matter of time. In fact, we could be overdue. But, if Bernabeu is correct, the sun won't bring darkness, only light.

A sharable version of this story with additional material may be found here.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE VERNAL EQUINOX PEARL: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the Vernal Equinox Pearl, launched to the edge of space onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon. Here it is, floating 111,202 feet above the snow-capped Sierra Nevada of central California:

You can have it for $179.95. The students are selling space pearls to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. This 10mm cultured white pearl, surrounded by a crystalline splash of spring-green cubic zirconia, spent more than 2 hours in the stratosphere as sensors in the payload measured cosmic rays.

Each purchase comes with a greeting card showing the pearl in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On March 13, 2021, the network reported 8 fireballs.
(8 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On March 13, 2021 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2021 EF1
2021-Mar-08
0.7 LD
12.1
4
2021 DL
2021-Mar-08
11.8 LD
5.8
34
2021 EX3
2021-Mar-08
17.3 LD
9
39
2021 EL3
2021-Mar-08
2.6 LD
5.3
6
2021 EW
2021-Mar-08
15.8 LD
29.9
43
2021 EZ3
2021-Mar-09
3.7 LD
8.1
34
2021 ED3
2021-Mar-09
5.7 LD
11.6
20
2021 ES3
2021-Mar-09
4.9 LD
7
10
2021 EF3
2021-Mar-09
3.7 LD
3.7
5
2021 EZ
2021-Mar-09
1.5 LD
6.2
6
2021 ER3
2021-Mar-09
2.9 LD
12.2
23
2021 EG3
2021-Mar-09
0.4 LD
24.1
5
2021 EO
2021-Mar-10
7.1 LD
7.9
34
2021 EE2
2021-Mar-10
11.1 LD
14.2
29
535844
2021-Mar-10
14.2 LD
7.3
162
2021 CF6
2021-Mar-10
4.2 LD
8.4
62
2021 EH3
2021-Mar-10
8.6 LD
9.7
16
2020 FM
2021-Mar-10
18.2 LD
13.3
56
2021 EY1
2021-Mar-11
3.5 LD
14.9
17
2021 EA1
2021-Mar-11
2.5 LD
11.7
15
2021 EB1
2021-Mar-11
8.6 LD
14.7
70
2021 ED2
2021-Mar-11
6.4 LD
4.9
7
2021 EE3
2021-Mar-12
1.9 LD
6.4
6
2011 YW10
2021-Mar-12
19.8 LD
13.2
45
2021 EK3
2021-Mar-12
17.5 LD
18.9
52
2021 EB3
2021-Mar-13
16.5 LD
10.9
31
2021 EM3
2021-Mar-14
18.4 LD
1.8
18
2021 EP3
2021-Mar-14
6.4 LD
19.8
16
2021 ET3
2021-Mar-14
2.3 LD
17
15
2021 EX
2021-Mar-15
9.8 LD
4.4
22
2021 EN3
2021-Mar-15
2.2 LD
10.7
12
2021 CX8
2021-Mar-15
18.2 LD
6.6
52
2021 EL1
2021-Mar-15
13.4 LD
6.6
56
2021 EQ3
2021-Mar-16
0.7 LD
12
22
2021 EJ3
2021-Mar-16
2 LD
2.3
10
2021 DT
2021-Mar-16
18.3 LD
7.3
34
2021 EW3
2021-Mar-16
6.5 LD
8.5
18
2021 EO2
2021-Mar-17
6.2 LD
6.3
9
2021 EY2
2021-Mar-19
9.4 LD
9.7
17
2021 DP2
2021-Mar-20
7.5 LD
4.3
22
231937
2021-Mar-21
5.3 LD
34.4
1024
2021 EV3
2021-Mar-25
19 LD
18
91
2021 CX5
2021-Mar-27
7.7 LD
5.6
48
2020 GE
2021-Mar-27
12.7 LD
1.5
8
2019 GM1
2021-Mar-31
15.1 LD
3.9
14
2015 MB54
2021-Apr-06
13.6 LD
3.7
57
2020 GE1
2021-Apr-07
12.2 LD
4.2
14
2014 FO38
2021-Apr-07
16.8 LD
8.3
20
2020 UY1
2021-Apr-15
16 LD
8.7
22
2017 HG4
2021-Apr-16
7.6 LD
4.1
10
2020 HE5
2021-Apr-17
8.5 LD
4.3
10
2019 HQ
2021-Apr-20
14.8 LD
8.8
20
2020 HO5
2021-Apr-22
16.5 LD
3.3
7
2019 PS1
2021-Apr-23
14.5 LD
10
16
2016 QE45
2021-Apr-24
13.2 LD
15.3
162
2015 HA177
2021-Apr-26
18.7 LD
8.7
10
2019 HF4
2021-Apr-26
7.8 LD
6.8
11
2019 VT3
2021-May-01
12.1 LD
5.9
8
2021 AF8
2021-May-04
8.8 LD
9.4
344
2018 JP
2021-May-05
10.6 LD
7.8
12
2021 AE4
2021-May-06
18.5 LD
9.1
153
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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