| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 1 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 5.3 nT Bz: 3.8 nT north more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2346 UT Coronal Holes: 12 Jan 22 Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan 16-17. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 14th. Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar Updated at: SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2022 Jan 12 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 05 % | 05 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2022 Jan 12 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 10 % | 10 % | MINOR | 01 % | 01 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 20 % | 20 % | SEVERE | 20 % | 20 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure! | | | SIGNIFICANT FARSIDE EXPLOSION (UPDATED): A significant explosion has occured on the farside of the sun. During the early hours of Jan. 12th a huge plume of hot plasma leaped over the sun's northeastern limb. Soon after, a full halo CME emerged from the same location. This was probably an X-class event eclipsed by the edge of the sun. The blast site will turn to face Earth later this week, possibly during the weekend. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text. SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Cycle 25 is heating up. New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outperforming the official forecast. You are here: See the complete labeled plot or play with an interactive version from NOAA. Sunspot counts have exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years. The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger. Sky watchers have already noticed the change. "We are definitely seeing the effects on the ground in the Arctic!" reports Chad Blakley of the Swedish tour guide service Lights over Lapland. "Auroras now are the best in years." (A) The first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25 on July 3, 2021; (B) A radio blackout caused by an X-flare on Oct. 28, 2021; (C) Auroras over Wisconsin photographed by Marybeth Kiczenski on Nov. 4, 2021. Indeed, geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar cycle began. In 2020, the first full year of Solar Cycle 25, there were 9 days with at least minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms. That number skyrocketed to 25 days in 2021. One of those "storm days" (Nov. 4, 2021) was a borderline G4-class (severe) event with auroras sighted as far south as California and New Mexico. Another sign of increasing solar activity is the X-flare. X-flares are the most powerful type of solar flare. They can cause strong radio blackouts, pepper Earth's atmosphere with energetic particles, and herald intense geomagnetic storms. The sun produced zero of these flares from late 2017 until mid-2021. Solar Cycle 25 busted the drought on July 3, 2021, with an X1.6 category explosion, followed by an X1-flare on Oct. 28, 2021. Two down, 98 to go? Typical 11-year solar cycles produce more than 100 X-flares during the years around Solar Max. Stay tuned for updates as Solar Cycle 25 intensifies. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter "I LOVE YOU MORE" MOONSTONE PENDANT: Valentine's Day is coming! Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from space. This one hitched a ride on an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon, floating 112,201 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California: You can have it for $142.95. The students are selling these sterling silver infinity-wrapped moonstone pendants to support their ballooning program. Engraved with "I Love You More," it makes a romantic Valentine's gift. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the moonstone in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Realtime Venus Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Jan 12, 2022, the network reported 17 fireballs. (17 sporadics) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On January 12, 2022 there were 2249 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2022 AR2 | 2022-Jan-07 | 1.7 LD | 11.6 | 11 | 2020 AP1 | 2022-Jan-07 | 4.6 LD | 5.7 | 4 | 2022 AE5 | 2022-Jan-08 | 7.7 LD | 7.9 | 31 | 2022 AP5 | 2022-Jan-08 | 18 LD | 7.7 | 35 | 2022 AN | 2022-Jan-09 | 4.8 LD | 6.1 | 15 | 2022 AE2 | 2022-Jan-09 | 4.6 LD | 8.1 | 24 | 2017 AM13 | 2022-Jan-10 | 17.7 LD | 16.7 | 36 | 2022 AZ | 2022-Jan-10 | 8.4 LD | 14.3 | 60 | 2022 AY5 | 2022-Jan-10 | 0.3 LD | 9.2 | 5 | 2022 AC4 | 2022-Jan-11 | 0.2 LD | 8.4 | 6 | 2022 AD4 | 2022-Jan-11 | 2.9 LD | 5.7 | 11 | 2022 AT | 2022-Jan-11 | 19.9 LD | 10 | 31 | 2022 AB4 | 2022-Jan-11 | 1.1 LD | 9.9 | 15 | 2013 YD48 | 2022-Jan-11 | 14.6 LD | 14.8 | 107 | 2022 AF1 | 2022-Jan-12 | 11.6 LD | 11.9 | 41 | 2022 AT5 | 2022-Jan-12 | 5.7 LD | 9.6 | 11 | 2022 AA2 | 2022-Jan-12 | 6.6 LD | 7.3 | 20 | 2022 AQ2 | 2022-Jan-13 | 14.2 LD | 4.2 | 20 | 2022 AU5 | 2022-Jan-13 | 11.9 LD | 5.8 | 20 | 2022 AG2 | 2022-Jan-13 | 3.2 LD | 9.2 | 12 | 2022 AS3 | 2022-Jan-13 | 12.3 LD | 4.9 | 23 | 2022 AF5 | 2022-Jan-14 | 8.7 LD | 8.8 | 17 | 2022 AA4 | 2022-Jan-14 | 3.6 LD | 4 | 10 | 2022 AG | 2022-Jan-14 | 8.3 LD | 3.8 | 34 | 2022 AV5 | 2022-Jan-15 | 10.2 LD | 19.9 | 46 | 2022 AT2 | 2022-Jan-15 | 1.9 LD | 6.4 | 14 | 2022 AV3 | 2022-Jan-15 | 12.6 LD | 10.8 | 28 | 2022 AS5 | 2022-Jan-16 | 8 LD | 8 | 19 | 2021 BA | 2022-Jan-18 | 9.8 LD | 9.1 | 22 | 2022 AW | 2022-Jan-18 | 9.4 LD | 10.1 | 49 | 2022 AA6 | 2022-Jan-18 | 12.1 LD | 4.5 | 14 | 7482 | 2022-Jan-18 | 5.2 LD | 19.6 | 1732 | 2022 AB | 2022-Jan-20 | 9.7 LD | 5.6 | 71 | 2022 AX4 | 2022-Jan-21 | 7.9 LD | 6.9 | 22 | 2018 PN22 | 2022-Jan-21 | 11.4 LD | 2.7 | 11 | 2017 XC62 | 2022-Jan-24 | 18.7 LD | 4.3 | 112 | 2021 BZ | 2022-Jan-27 | 17.6 LD | 14.6 | 39 | 2022 AN5 | 2022-Jan-28 | 10.2 LD | 4.9 | 22 | 2022 AA | 2022-Feb-04 | 6.6 LD | 4.3 | 42 | 2018 CA1 | 2022-Feb-05 | 9.8 LD | 15.1 | 32 | 2022 AV4 | 2022-Feb-07 | 19.2 LD | 3.4 | 22 | 2007 UY1 | 2022-Feb-08 | 13.9 LD | 6.6 | 89 | 2020 DF | 2022-Feb-14 | 12 LD | 8.6 | 20 | 2018 CW2 | 2022-Feb-18 | 2.2 LD | 10.8 | 25 | 2020 CX1 | 2022-Feb-18 | 7.2 LD | 8.2 | 54 | 455176 | 2022-Feb-22 | 14 LD | 25.1 | 257 | 2017 CX1 | 2022-Feb-23 | 15.2 LD | 5 | 8 | 2016 QJ44 | 2022-Feb-24 | 19.6 LD | 8.5 | 324 | 2021 QO2 | 2022-Feb-25 | 20 LD | 11 | 65 | 2020 UO4 | 2022-Feb-28 | 18.5 LD | 2.1 | 7 | 138971 | 2022-Mar-04 | 12.8 LD | 12 | 749 | 2021 UL7 | 2022-Mar-04 | 11.5 LD | 2 | 23 | 2020 DC | 2022-Mar-06 | 3.9 LD | 4.9 | 16 | 2021 EY1 | 2022-Mar-10 | 10.1 LD | 15.5 | 16 | 2015 DR215 | 2022-Mar-11 | 17.5 LD | 8.3 | 290 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (Nov. 2021): Our balloons have just measured a sudden drop in atmospheric radiation. It happened during the strong geomagnetic storms of Nov. 3-4, 2021. Here are the data: This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a CME from the sun sweeps past Earth and literally pushes cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out. We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush Decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our dataset. En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes, so we can sample radiation where planes fly. This plot shows how the Forbush decrease was restricted to the stratosphere; it did not affect lower levels of the atmosphere: The dose rates shown above are expressed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) link cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. .Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather | | Going above and beyond to provide the best homes listings in the Comox real estate market to keep you up to date and informed | | Looking for sports betting companies not registered on GamStop? CasinoGap has presented a list of sites not on GamStop available for UK players. Check and bet online! Would you like to bet at sites not using GamStop? Look at a list of NonStopCasino sites for online betting that aren't on GamStop. 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