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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 440.0 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A9
1729 UT Feb08
24-hr: A9
1053 UT Feb08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 08 Feb 20
A Solar Cycle 25 sunspot (not yet numbered) is struggling to emerge at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 08 Feb 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2020 total: 22 days (56%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 08 Feb 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.38
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 08 Feb 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 08 Feb 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2019 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.0% High
7-day change: -0.9%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 08 Feb 2020 @ 1800 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.4 nT
Bz: -1.4 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
Coronal Holes: 08 Feb 20

Solar wind flowing from this northern coronal hole could hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 11.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 15th--the earliest start in recorded history. Check here for daily images from NASA's AIM spacecraft.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 02-06-2020 17:55:03 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Feb 08 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
10 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
10 %
10 %
 
Saturday, Feb. 8, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Solar minimum is here - but even now strangely beautiful auroras are dancing around the poles. Deep inside the Arctic Circle, the expert guides of Aurora Holidays in Utsjoki, Finland, can help you chase them. Book now!

 

EXITING THE SOLAR WIND: Earth is exiting a stream of solar wind that sparked a brief but intense outburst of auroras and ground currents in Scandinavia on Feb. 6th. The next stream is due to arrive on Feb. 11th. It is flowing from a northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

THE CONTINUING MYSTERY OF BETELGEUSE: For months, astronomers have been keeping a wary eye on Betelgeuse, the bright red star in Orion's shoulder. What's attracting their attention? All of a sudden, Betelgeuse isn't bright anymore. Its luminosity has "fallen off a cliff"--a sign that the star could be on the verge of going supernova.

"The most recent measurements put the visual magnitude of Betelgeuse at about +1.66, the dimmest its been in our 25 years of photometry," says Edward Guinan of Villanova University. 


Above: The horizontal axis is Heliospheric Julian Date (HJD). For reference, Jan. 30, 2020, the date of the most recent measurement, has an HJD of 2458879.

Betelgeuse is a highly evolved red supergiant--the type of star that could collapse and explode at any moment. Indeed, the dimming of Betelgeuse could be explained if the star has suddenly contracted to about 92% of its previous radius. But that's not the only possibility. Betelgeuse might be dimmed by a giant starspot--or maybe it is shrouded by an outburst of stardust from its own cool outer layers--or something else entirely. No one knows.

Answers might be forthcoming on Feb. 21st. Astronomers have long known that Betelgeuse is a variable star. It pulsates with many periods, as shown in this Fourier analysis of Betelgeuse's light curve:


Above: A period analysis of 23 years (1995-2018) of Betelgeuse photometry. Credit: Peranso.

"This shows a dominant (probable pulsation) period of P = 430 days," note Guinan and colleague Richard Wasatonic in a recent Astronomical Telegram. Given this result, "the minimum brightness is expected on 21 (+/-7d) February 2020."

If Betelegeuse starts to bounce back on Feb. 21st, this whole episode might just be a deeper-than-average pulsation, and perhaps the supernova watch can be called off. However, notes Guinan, "even if the 430-day period is still working, this would indicate a minimum brightness near 0.9 mag--much brighter than the current value near 1.6 mag. So something very unusual is going on."

Stay tuned for updates as Feb. 21st approaches.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

24K SPACE ROSE FOR VALENTINE'S DAY: On Feb. 1, 2020, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. This 24k gold foil-gilded rose went along for the ride. At the apex of the flight, the acrylic bloom was 115,823 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

You can have it for $156.75. The students are selling these roses to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. They make great Valentine's Day gifts. Each one comes with a romantic card showing the rose in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again. 

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Feb. 8, 2020, the network reported 2 fireballs.
(2 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On February 8, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 BT14
2020-Feb-03
0.5 LD
8.4
10
2020 CK
2020-Feb-03
1.4 LD
22.5
8
2020 CQ
2020-Feb-03
4 LD
14.8
14
2020 BX12
2020-Feb-03
11.4 LD
25.3
271
2013 BA74
2020-Feb-04
3.7 LD
7.4
28
2020 CQ1
2020-Feb-04
0.2 LD
6.1
6
2020 CO
2020-Feb-04
11.5 LD
17.5
23
2020 CN
2020-Feb-04
4.8 LD
14.8
12
2020 CH1
2020-Feb-04
15.3 LD
7.9
31
2020 CR
2020-Feb-04
2.6 LD
22.4
13
2020 CC
2020-Feb-05
1.9 LD
10.8
9
2020 BR11
2020-Feb-05
10.5 LD
3.2
8
2020 CT
2020-Feb-05
4.3 LD
13.2
9
2020 BY13
2020-Feb-05
10.8 LD
9.4
30
2020 CR1
2020-Feb-06
2.4 LD
7.9
14
2020 BF10
2020-Feb-06
2.9 LD
8.6
13
2020 BF11
2020-Feb-07
16.8 LD
13.9
35
2020 BL8
2020-Feb-08
6.6 LD
3.2
25
2020 BQ11
2020-Feb-08
14.1 LD
21.3
46
2020 BW5
2020-Feb-09
5.2 LD
9
19
2020 BK10
2020-Feb-10
1.9 LD
11.5
21
2020 CY1
2020-Feb-10
5.9 LD
40.3
63
2020 BC10
2020-Feb-10
15.2 LD
7.5
33
2020 CH
2020-Feb-12
11.6 LD
9.5
31
2020 CF
2020-Feb-12
14.8 LD
5.3
12
163373
2020-Feb-15
15.1 LD
15.2
589
2020 BL14
2020-Feb-16
18 LD
8.8
33
2020 CK1
2020-Feb-17
8.6 LD
8.1
16
2018 CW2
2020-Feb-17
6 LD
10.2
28
2020 BA10
2020-Feb-18
12.3 LD
9
28
2020 CX1
2020-Feb-19
14.1 LD
7.9
52
2020 BL7
2020-Feb-19
13.9 LD
8.5
36
2020 BC9
2020-Feb-20
13.9 LD
9.3
77
2019 BE5
2020-Feb-20
13.7 LD
14.8
34
2011 DR
2020-Feb-23
14.7 LD
5.8
25
2016 CO246
2020-Feb-23
18.4 LD
5.9
25
2020 BR10
2020-Feb-23
15.4 LD
15.1
101
2020 BW13
2020-Feb-24
9.1 LD
2.4
12
2012 DS30
2020-Feb-26
12.3 LD
5.4
22
2015 BK509
2020-Feb-29
18.7 LD
12.5
118
2017 BM123
2020-Mar-01
10.5 LD
8.1
65
2018 RF6
2020-Mar-10
11.2 LD
12.6
36
2008 UB95
2020-Mar-11
18.5 LD
7.6
41
2018 GY
2020-Mar-15
6.2 LD
9.5
39
2012 XA133
2020-Mar-27
17.4 LD
23.7
235
2010 GD35
2020-Mar-29
15.3 LD
12
43
2006 FH36
2020-Mar-30
11.3 LD
5.1
93
2019 GM1
2020-Apr-02
9 LD
4.2
14
2015 FC35
2020-Apr-04
10.4 LD
13.8
148
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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