| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 0.67 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 2.00 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 3.74 nT Bz: -1.83 nT south more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1146 UT Coronal Holes: 05 May 23 Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on May 7th. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds Bad news: NASA's AIM spacecraft, which monitors noctilucent clouds, may be dead due to problems with an onboard battery. Mission controllers have not yet given up all hope, so stay tuned. Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar Updated May05 SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2023 May 05 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 55 % | 55 % | CLASS X | 15 % | 15 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2023 May 05 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 20 % | 35 % | MINOR | 10 % | 25 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 10 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 20 % | 20 % | SEVERE | 30 % | 30 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when magnetic storms erupt. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. You can, too! | | | GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms are possible on May 7-8 in response to a series of CMEs that have left the sun in the past 48 hours. This is an uncertain forecast. Multiple explosions on May 4th and 5th produced overlapping CMEs, which are difficult to disentangle and properly model. Nevertheless, the growing number of Earthside eruptions is boosting the odds of a CME strike in the next few days. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. THE EXPLOSIONS CONTINUE: For the third day in a row, the sun is crackling with M-class solar flares. The action on May 5th began with a magnetic filament lifting off the sun's eastern limb, which set off a chain reaction recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): The movie, above, was taken through SDO's 304 Å filter; it shows gas with a temperature of 50,000 K. Much hotter gas was involved, too. Take a look at 193 Å (1,000,000 K) and 131 Å (10,000,000 K). Viewing the event in these different wavelengths reveals not only strong flares but also a solar tsunami rippling through the sun's atmosphere. It was a big event. The explosions of May 5th have hurled multiple overlapping CMEs into space: movie. At least one is probably Earth-directed. NOAA analysts are sorting out the storm clouds now and they may have a forecast to share later today. Stay tuned. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter MR. SPOCK SOAP (VULCAN MINT SCENTED): It's the logical way to get clean: Vulcan-mint scented Spock Soap. This bar touched space on April 29, 2023, when it hitched a ride onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloon: You can have it for $99.95. Not only does the bar smell like the mint gardens of Vulcan, but also each side of the wrapper features hilarious Spock lore. Take a look. The students of Earth to Sky are selling space soap to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each bar comes with a greeting card showing the soap in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On May 04, 2023, the network reported 8 fireballs. (5 sporadics, 3 eta Aquariids) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On May 5, 2023 there were 2316 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2023 GF2 | 2023-Apr-30 | 11.5 LD | 4.8 | 28 | 2023 HD7 | 2023-Apr-30 | 0.6 LD | 11.4 | 7 | 2018 VS6 | 2023-May-01 | 5.2 LD | 11.6 | 14 | 2023 HV | 2023-May-01 | 3.6 LD | 4.3 | 15 | 2023 HY3 | 2023-May-01 | 16.7 LD | 6.5 | 32 | 2023 HV5 | 2023-May-03 | 1.1 LD | 8.9 | 13 | 2023 HF7 | 2023-May-04 | 1.7 LD | 13.1 | 16 | 2023 HJ7 | 2023-May-04 | 20 LD | 37.3 | 94 | 2023 HH7 | 2023-May-04 | 2.2 LD | 24.6 | 28 | 2023 HZ4 | 2023-May-04 | 8 LD | 22.8 | 58 | 2006 HX57 | 2023-May-05 | 6.8 LD | 11 | 30 | 2015 VN66 | 2023-May-06 | 20.1 LD | 20 | 114 | 2023 HT6 | 2023-May-07 | 3.2 LD | 9.2 | 21 | 2023 HP1 | 2023-May-07 | 16 LD | 11.6 | 93 | 2023 HG1 | 2023-May-09 | 10.9 LD | 2.4 | 19 | 2023 HT4 | 2023-May-12 | 15.9 LD | 8.9 | 81 | 2011 KY15 | 2023-May-18 | 19.9 LD | 14.3 | 54 | 2021 JK7 | 2023-May-22 | 16.7 LD | 22.9 | 48 | 2023 GY2 | 2023-May-22 | 18.1 LD | 11.3 | 96 | 2019 UJ3 | 2023-May-23 | 15.5 LD | 9.8 | 21 | 2023 CL3 | 2023-May-24 | 18.9 LD | 7.3 | 117 | 2021 KO2 | 2023-May-29 | 15.8 LD | 13.9 | 9 | 2012 KP24 | 2023-May-31 | 10.3 LD | 12.4 | 19 | 2018 KR | 2023-Jun-07 | 6.5 LD | 4.9 | 19 | 2017 UJ2 | 2023-Jun-07 | 5.3 LD | 5.6 | 2 | 488453 | 2023-Jun-12 | 8.3 LD | 21.5 | 495 | 2022 WN4 | 2023-Jun-13 | 10.8 LD | 15.1 | 158 | 2020 DB5 | 2023-Jun-15 | 11.3 LD | 9.5 | 506 | 2023 HL | 2023-Jun-17 | 13.5 LD | 1 | 15 | 2016 LK49 | 2023-Jun-19 | 17.4 LD | 19.4 | 22 | 2018 LN2 | 2023-Jun-20 | 19 LD | 9.9 | 84 | 2023 HF1 | 2023-Jun-21 | 12.5 LD | 4.4 | 59 | 467336 | 2023-Jun-24 | 17.4 LD | 7.1 | 269 | 2008 LG2 | 2023-Jun-24 | 10.5 LD | 5.6 | 32 | 2022 MM1 | 2023-Jun-29 | 9.5 LD | 9.8 | 41 | 2020 NC | 2023-Jul-02 | 13.9 LD | 7.7 | 123 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low: What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page | | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather | | Getting YouTube comments is essential if you want to beat the algorithm! 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