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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 May 17 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
40
% |
45
% |
CLASS X |
05
% |
05
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 May 17 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
40
% |
35
% |
MINOR |
30
% |
30
% |
SEVERE |
05
% |
05
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
05
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
25
% |
25
% |
SEVERE |
60
% |
60
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
This is an AI Free Zone: AI is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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TWILIGHT SKY SHOW--TONIGHT! When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look west. Venus and the crescent Moon are in conjunction--a tight pair beautifully framed by twilight blue. Tomorrow night, the crescent Moon will move closer to Jupiter, forming a different but equally beautiful scene. Sky maps: May 18, 19.
HUGE FARSIDE SUNSPOT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the farside of the sun. Europe's Solar Orbiter photographed the behemoth on May 17th:
The sunspot is crackling with strong solar flares. Over the past three days (May 15-17), X-ray sensors onboard Solar Orbiter detected two X1-class flares and a dozen M-class flares. Earth-based coronagraphs have also detected multiple CMEs emerging from the farside, additional confirmation of intense activity.
The giant sunspot is also visible from Mars. During a survey of atmospheric dust on May 16th the Perseverance rover saw *two* large active regions:
One of these is clearly the same V-shaped cluster Solar Orbiter is tracking, with a second significant sunspot trailing behind.
Solar Orbiter's giant sunspot will turn toward Earth in 5 or 6 days, putting our planet in the strike zone for future activity. Stay tuned for updates from Solar Orbiter and Mars. Solar Flare alerts: SMS Text.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
THIS IS *REAL* MONEY FROM SPACE: The US Mint just released a new $1 coin to honor one of America's greatest innovators: Steve Jobs. On May 14, 2026, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched the coins to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have a single coin for $49.95 or an entire unbroken roll for $299.95 (25 coins). No longer available from the US Mint, these rare coins flew 111,113 feet above the Sierra Nevada. One side shows Steve Jobs in a meditative pose; the other side features the Statue of Liberty in profile. The coin is inscribed with the words "MAKE SOMETHING WONDERFUL."
Bonus: If you need to, you can spend these coins. They're legal tender.
The students are selling space coins to support to support their cosmic ray research program. (Helium is expensive!) Each order comes with a greeting card showing the coins in flight and telling the story of their journey to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On May 16, 2026, the network reported 11 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 1 eta Aquariids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On May 18, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 JG2 |
2026-May-12 |
3.3 LD |
7.6 |
14 |
| 2026 JU2 |
2026-May-12 |
5.7 LD |
16.6 |
25 |
| 2026 JR |
2026-May-12 |
7.9 LD |
7.4 |
10 |
| 2026 JJ2 |
2026-May-12 |
7.9 LD |
7.1 |
15 |
| 2026 JJ3 |
2026-May-12 |
9.4 LD |
3 |
14 |
| 2026 JA1 |
2026-May-13 |
2.5 LD |
12.6 |
13 |
| 2026 JX3 |
2026-May-13 |
0.3 LD |
6.4 |
3 |
| 2026 JX2 |
2026-May-13 |
0.7 LD |
13.8 |
7 |
| 2026 JF5 |
2026-May-14 |
0.3 LD |
8.9 |
2 |
| 2026 JT |
2026-May-14 |
17.1 LD |
9.7 |
19 |
| 2026 JV1 |
2026-May-14 |
7 LD |
9.4 |
24 |
| 2026 JR4 |
2026-May-14 |
4.6 LD |
7 |
9 |
| 2026 JV3 |
2026-May-14 |
0.1 LD |
12.7 |
3 |
| 2026 JH1 |
2026-May-15 |
15.5 LD |
13.4 |
30 |
| 2026 JQ3 |
2026-May-15 |
2.2 LD |
7.8 |
13 |
| 2026 JN4 |
2026-May-15 |
0 LD |
23.1 |
1 |
| 2026 JK2 |
2026-May-15 |
1.2 LD |
20.5 |
26 |
| 2026 JO4 |
2026-May-15 |
11.6 LD |
15.5 |
22 |
| 2026 KG |
2026-May-15 |
2.8 LD |
7.1 |
6 |
| 2026 JU |
2026-May-16 |
5.2 LD |
8.4 |
23 |
| 2026 JF4 |
2026-May-16 |
4.1 LD |
9.8 |
8 |
| 2023 VR5 |
2026-May-16 |
7.5 LD |
2.3 |
10 |
| 2026 KD |
2026-May-17 |
0.3 LD |
12.2 |
6 |
| 2026 JY2 |
2026-May-17 |
8.3 LD |
13.8 |
19 |
| 2026 JB4 |
2026-May-17 |
9.5 LD |
6.7 |
14 |
| 2026 KA |
2026-May-17 |
1.3 LD |
15.6 |
19 |
| 2026 HC5 |
2026-May-17 |
7.1 LD |
6.7 |
22 |
| 2025 KR4 |
2026-May-18 |
15.2 LD |
5.9 |
22 |
| 2026 JP3 |
2026-May-18 |
17.7 LD |
16.5 |
39 |
| 2026 KB |
2026-May-18 |
0.6 LD |
9.6 |
13 |
| 2026 JH2 |
2026-May-18 |
0.2 LD |
9.1 |
19 |
| 2026 KC |
2026-May-19 |
3.5 LD |
8.4 |
13 |
| 2026 JP1 |
2026-May-20 |
17.7 LD |
15.4 |
57 |
| 2026 JD3 |
2026-May-21 |
6.9 LD |
7.7 |
12 |
| 2026 JD4 |
2026-May-21 |
4.3 LD |
24.1 |
34 |
| 2026 JG1 |
2026-May-21 |
13.4 LD |
14.6 |
35 |
| 2026 JA4 |
2026-May-21 |
7.6 LD |
7.8 |
12 |
| 2026 KF |
2026-May-22 |
1.7 LD |
14.1 |
22 |
| 2026 JE1 |
2026-May-22 |
2.9 LD |
4.7 |
12 |
| 2026 JC4 |
2026-May-22 |
14.9 LD |
21.3 |
47 |
| 2026 JM |
2026-May-23 |
5.2 LD |
7.8 |
24 |
| 2023 KH4 |
2026-May-24 |
5.5 LD |
7.9 |
14 |
| 2023 KZ1 |
2026-May-24 |
9 LD |
13.4 |
20 |
| 2026 JW3 |
2026-May-25 |
13.2 LD |
14.8 |
63 |
| 2026 JJ |
2026-May-27 |
18.8 LD |
4.8 |
24 |
| 2026 HW2 |
2026-May-29 |
17.7 LD |
12.5 |
123 |
| 2023 BM4 |
2026-May-30 |
12.2 LD |
5.7 |
64 |
| 2026 JN |
2026-Jun-01 |
16 LD |
7.8 |
50 |
| 2021 KN2 |
2026-Jun-03 |
8.9 LD |
8.9 |
7 |
| 2018 GE |
2026-Jun-07 |
16.4 LD |
3.1 |
11 |
| 2016 VS |
2026-Jun-12 |
20 LD |
11.1 |
12 |
| 530520 |
2026-Jun-12 |
16.1 LD |
14.6 |
152 |
| 2003 LN6 |
2026-Jun-18 |
3.7 LD |
3.9 |
41 |
| 2025 WC4 |
2026-Jun-21 |
10.2 LD |
19.2 |
304 |
| 2015 LM24 |
2026-Jun-22 |
18.2 LD |
13.8 |
71 |
| 152637 |
2026-Jun-27 |
6.7 LD |
8.9 |
947 |
| 523808 |
2026-Jul-04 |
9.1 LD |
16.8 |
479 |
| 2023 YO1 |
2026-Jul-05 |
6.5 LD |
2.7 |
23 |
| 2007 AA2 |
2026-Jul-11 |
17.8 LD |
7.2 |
43 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
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