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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Oct 20 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
25
% |
25
% |
CLASS X |
05
% |
05
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
35
% |
20
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
05
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
25
% |
20
% |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
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AI writing is everywhere -- except here. This website is written by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. Our guarantee: If you find a mistake, it was made by a real human being.
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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): A solar wind stream is approaching Earth. ETA: Oct. 20th. NOAA forecasters say that G1-class geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras are possible when it arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
A MAGICAL MORNING--ORIONIDS, MARS AND JUPITER: If you had to pick one day in 2026 to wake up before sunrise, Thursday, Oct. 22nd, might be it. It’s a magical morning. The brightest stars of winter will be sparkling overhead while Mars and Jupiter converge in the southeast. And a handful of bright meteors is very likely to cross the scene.
This is the peak of the Orionid meteor shower.
Orionids are debris from Halley’s Comet. Every October, Earth crosses a stream of dust and gravel left behind by Halley during previous visits. Hitting our atmosphere at 66 km/s (148,000 mph), grains of comet dust vaporize in streaks of light. Orionids often leave glowing trails, and a few explode as fireballs.
 Forecasters expect 10 to 20 Orionids per hour during this year’s peak. Visibility is best between 4 am and sunrise when the Hunter’s Moon is below the horizon. Orionid meteors fly out of Orion, just above the red giant Betelgeuse. You don’t have to stare at that exact spot, however. Orionids can appear anywhere in the sky.
During any pause between meteors, look southeast. Jupiter and Mars are converging for an amazing close encounter on Nov. 16th. Even now, they are eye-catching. Jupiter is the brightest point in the morning sky, outshining even Sirius. Red Mars lies only 9 degrees away.
Get away from city lights, look up, and enjoy the show. PS: The shower is broad, so Wednesday morning, Oct. 21st, is also excellent.
Meteor alerts: Would you like a reminder when meteor showers are peaking? Sign up for our Backyard Astronomy Alert Service. You'll never miss another meteor display, space station flyby, aurora outburst and much more.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
THE SOUTH SEA IRIDESCENT PEARL: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the South Sea Iridescent Pearl. On June 9, 2026, it flew to the edge of space onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $185.95. The pearl has a lovely iridescent sheen that hints at a South Sea rainbow when held in sunlight, and it is suspended from a 925 Sterling Silver chain. You'll also receive a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On October 20, 2026, the network reported 31 fireballs.
(18 sporadics, 10 Orionids, 2 Southern Taurids, 1 epsilon Geminid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On October 20, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
 |
Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 TZ102 |
2026-Oct-15 |
12.3 LD |
14.4 |
46 |
| 2026 TP6 |
2026-Oct-15 |
0.6 LD |
10.3 |
13 |
| 2026 UA |
2026-Oct-15 |
3.5 LD |
16.8 |
17 |
| 2026 TF4 |
2026-Oct-15 |
7.1 LD |
4.9 |
11 |
| 2026 UG |
2026-Oct-15 |
5 LD |
8.5 |
13 |
| 2022 UP6 |
2026-Oct-15 |
2.6 LD |
9 |
8 |
| 2026 UB |
2026-Oct-15 |
6.5 LD |
16.3 |
20 |
| 2000 SZ162 |
2026-Oct-16 |
19.9 LD |
5.7 |
12 |
| 2026 TE2 |
2026-Oct-16 |
6 LD |
14.7 |
25 |
| 2026 TB2 |
2026-Oct-16 |
5 LD |
8.8 |
32 |
| 2026 TA94 |
2026-Oct-16 |
5.4 LD |
7.4 |
13 |
| 2026 UW |
2026-Oct-16 |
14.1 LD |
5.2 |
23 |
| 2026 UP |
2026-Oct-17 |
0.6 LD |
9.5 |
5 |
| 2026 TC94 |
2026-Oct-18 |
6.6 LD |
10.5 |
15 |
| 2026 UL |
2026-Oct-18 |
1.8 LD |
12.9 |
39 |
| 2026 TS |
2026-Oct-18 |
2.4 LD |
10.3 |
55 |
| 2026 UF |
2026-Oct-18 |
6.8 LD |
7.6 |
35 |
| 2026 UO |
2026-Oct-18 |
3.7 LD |
9.6 |
19 |
| 2026 UN |
2026-Oct-18 |
5 LD |
10.9 |
36 |
| 2026 TN67 |
2026-Oct-18 |
16.6 LD |
6.9 |
28 |
| 2026 UK |
2026-Oct-19 |
7.6 LD |
15.1 |
33 |
| 2026 UQ |
2026-Oct-19 |
5.6 LD |
5.4 |
10 |
| 2026 TD2 |
2026-Oct-20 |
7.3 LD |
12.3 |
43 |
| 2026 TP |
2026-Oct-20 |
12.1 LD |
9.9 |
51 |
| 2020 FN3 |
2026-Oct-20 |
12.4 LD |
5.8 |
45 |
| 2026 TM67 |
2026-Oct-20 |
11.7 LD |
14.3 |
54 |
| 2026 TV8 |
2026-Oct-21 |
4.8 LD |
9.2 |
25 |
| 2026 TU1 |
2026-Oct-22 |
12.8 LD |
7.9 |
25 |
| 2026 TX84 |
2026-Oct-22 |
10.6 LD |
7.4 |
23 |
| 2026 TK77 |
2026-Oct-22 |
9.7 LD |
6.2 |
15 |
| 2017 UX7 |
2026-Oct-22 |
17 LD |
10.3 |
27 |
| 2026 TV86 |
2026-Oct-23 |
5.6 LD |
5.7 |
18 |
| 2026 TR35 |
2026-Oct-23 |
15 LD |
20.9 |
55 |
| 2026 TT3 |
2026-Oct-24 |
12.8 LD |
12.8 |
47 |
| 2026 UE |
2026-Oct-25 |
5.2 LD |
15.9 |
25 |
| 2026 TB8 |
2026-Oct-25 |
7.1 LD |
7.8 |
60 |
| 2026 TB94 |
2026-Oct-27 |
5.1 LD |
11.6 |
27 |
| 2018 GS1 |
2026-Oct-28 |
11.1 LD |
9.3 |
108 |
| 2022 UV21 |
2026-Oct-29 |
14.8 LD |
9.6 |
13 |
| 2026 UD |
2026-Oct-30 |
11.7 LD |
7.7 |
26 |
| 2025 UK9 |
2026-Oct-31 |
0.8 LD |
7.8 |
4 |
| 524522 |
2026-Nov-02 |
15.7 LD |
8.7 |
277 |
| 2021 VC4 |
2026-Nov-03 |
6 LD |
11.2 |
15 |
| 2017 WJ2 |
2026-Nov-05 |
15.6 LD |
11.8 |
118 |
| 2016 VZ1 |
2026-Nov-05 |
20 LD |
13.5 |
21 |
| 2001 KF54 |
2026-Nov-06 |
18.9 LD |
16.4 |
391 |
| 2025 UF5 |
2026-Nov-09 |
18.9 LD |
1.9 |
10 |
| 2015 VH65 |
2026-Nov-10 |
9.7 LD |
8 |
10 |
| 2012 YD7 |
2026-Nov-10 |
18.6 LD |
7.5 |
49 |
| 2023 VF3 |
2026-Nov-11 |
8.5 LD |
8.8 |
19 |
| 2022 MP2 |
2026-Nov-13 |
19.8 LD |
3.8 |
23 |
| 2025 VG5 |
2026-Nov-13 |
18.2 LD |
4.9 |
16 |
| 2023 VE6 |
2026-Nov-17 |
18.4 LD |
10.1 |
13 |
| 2019 WT1 |
2026-Nov-18 |
19.7 LD |
9.7 |
16 |
| 2018 NE1 |
2026-Nov-19 |
16.7 LD |
13.3 |
74 |
| 2026 TB84 |
2026-Nov-19 |
12.1 LD |
9.9 |
68 |
| 2025 CP1 |
2026-Nov-30 |
12.9 LD |
10.8 |
6 |
| 2019 XF2 |
2026-Dec-04 |
3.1 LD |
10.2 |
14 |
| 2023 XH3 |
2026-Dec-06 |
18.7 LD |
16.5 |
14 |
| 2020 XC3 |
2026-Dec-08 |
14.5 LD |
14.3 |
110 |
| 2016 NV |
2026-Dec-08 |
14.3 LD |
10.4 |
379 |
| 2010 VQ |
2026-Dec-12 |
4.6 LD |
4.3 |
10 |
| 2025 XN6 |
2026-Dec-12 |
6.9 LD |
12.2 |
5 |
| 2026 LZ1 |
2026-Dec-14 |
14.4 LD |
11.2 |
36 |
| 2025 YN |
2026-Dec-18 |
18.3 LD |
13.1 |
21 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
| |
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| |
current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| |
Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| |
from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| |
from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| |
the
underlying science of space weather |
 |
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