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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Aug 03 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
20
% |
20
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
05
% |
05
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
20
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
25
% |
20
% |
SEVERE |
20
% |
15
% |
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|
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This is an AI Free Zone: AI writing is everywhere -- except here. Spaceweather.com is written 100% by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. If you find a mistake, rest assured it was made by a real human being.
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THE STORM IS OVER: Earth's magnetic field is settling back to a quiet state after the Aug. 2nd geomagnetic storm. The G2-class event was caused by a CME impact, which NOAA analysts predicted with ~29 minute accuracy. Very well done. The quiet should continue for the next 48 hours at least. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
RED SPRITES AND CIRRUS CLOUDS: This photo is not what it seems. On July 31st, Frankie Lucena pointed his camera toward a Caribbean thunderstorm and caught these red sprites dangling from a cirrus cloud:
"But sprites do not come from cirrus clouds," says Lucena. He should know. He has photographed hundreds of them from his home in Puerto Rico.
The real source of these sprites was a thunderstorm ~150 miles south of the island. Here's a satellite map. Within that tropical convective cell, a exceptionally strong -152.7 kA lightning bolt launched the red tendrils almost 90 km high. For context, that's about five times the current of an ordinary bolt.
 The low-hanging cirrus clouds simply got in the way. They were directly in front of Lucena's camera, but did not block the view. These sprites were so bright they shined through the obstruction.
Also visible behind the cirrus is a broad red disk. This is probably an "ELVE"-- a rare species of sprite discovered in 1990 by cameras onboard the space shuttle. Lucena's -152.7 kA lightning bolt was so strong, it generated an intense electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The ELVE marks the spot where the EMP hit Earth's ionosphere.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
VOYAGER GOLDEN RECORD: Carl Sagan himself picked the music and organized the tracks. We're talking about The Voyager Golden Record. On Oct. 31, 2023, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched this replica to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $99.95. The 3-inch aluminum disk is imprinted with instructions intended for extraterrestrials, telling them how to play the phonograph now sailing through interstellar space onboard NASA's Voyager probes. Having touched the edge of space, it's the closest thing on Earth to an actual Golden Record.
The students are selling these unique ornaments to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the ornament in flight and extra materials decoding the markings on the disk.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On August 3, 2026, the network reported 8 fireballs.
(5 sporadics, 2 Perseids, 1 alpha Capricornid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On August 4, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 OC4 |
2026-Jul-29 |
8.9 LD |
15.2 |
79 |
| 2025 OW |
2026-Jul-30 |
16.1 LD |
20.1 |
70 |
| 2026 OS |
2026-Aug-01 |
3.1 LD |
5.8 |
9 |
| 2024 RM10 |
2026-Aug-05 |
13.6 LD |
7.5 |
24 |
| 2026 OE1 |
2026-Aug-07 |
7.6 LD |
10.2 |
53 |
| 173561 |
2026-Aug-09 |
13.1 LD |
16.2 |
756 |
| 2019 NY2 |
2026-Aug-10 |
6.6 LD |
9.6 |
195 |
| 2013 QC11 |
2026-Aug-13 |
14.5 LD |
19 |
172 |
| 2026 NY |
2026-Aug-13 |
12.3 LD |
8.1 |
101 |
| 2025 AL2 |
2026-Aug-16 |
2.2 LD |
12.4 |
100 |
| 2025 DU7 |
2026-Aug-19 |
8.7 LD |
2.9 |
5 |
| 2025 FY11 |
2026-Aug-20 |
19.2 LD |
3.5 |
6 |
| 2023 RL |
2026-Aug-25 |
12.9 LD |
4.8 |
7 |
| 523609 |
2026-Aug-27 |
18.5 LD |
22.7 |
441 |
| 2025 QM9 |
2026-Aug-28 |
15.2 LD |
11.1 |
20 |
| 221455 |
2026-Aug-28 |
9.4 LD |
19 |
443 |
| 2017 BP31 |
2026-Aug-28 |
11.2 LD |
20.5 |
382 |
| 2007 EK |
2026-Aug-30 |
10.9 LD |
9.1 |
5 |
| 2017 RH16 |
2026-Aug-31 |
8.7 LD |
12.1 |
21 |
| 2025 CL3 |
2026-Sep-01 |
9.6 LD |
13.5 |
30 |
| 2018 RD2 |
2026-Sep-01 |
19.5 LD |
9.6 |
14 |
| 2025 QV5 |
2026-Sep-02 |
14.2 LD |
7.3 |
12 |
| 2020 YA5 |
2026-Sep-06 |
19.5 LD |
10.4 |
47 |
| 2022 RK |
2026-Sep-06 |
13.7 LD |
8.6 |
24 |
| 2024 RV12 |
2026-Sep-09 |
5.6 LD |
12.1 |
22 |
| 2026 OH3 |
2026-Sep-11 |
12.4 LD |
20.2 |
198 |
| 2025 RQ2 |
2026-Sep-11 |
17.5 LD |
12.1 |
17 |
| 2010 FX9 |
2026-Sep-14 |
9.4 LD |
11.1 |
55 |
| 2025 SC |
2026-Sep-14 |
19.2 LD |
1.9 |
3 |
| 2024 RP12 |
2026-Sep-16 |
17.9 LD |
6.6 |
51 |
| 2026 NT2 |
2026-Sep-17 |
16.1 LD |
12.5 |
279 |
| 2018 SP2 |
2026-Sep-30 |
5 LD |
14.3 |
39 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
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Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| |
Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
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current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
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Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
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from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
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from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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the
underlying science of space weather |
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