:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov,
15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 508 km/s at 12/0051Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/0204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3235 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 116
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 115/110/105
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10