:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 18/0647Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1552Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10272 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 156
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10