:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 19/1853Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 617 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 111
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 112/115/120
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  011/012-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10