:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb,
22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 20/0914Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/1247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1528Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7442 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet levels on
day two (22 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    10/10/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 111
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 110/110/120
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  007/008-005/005-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/10/45