:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct,
09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: he geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 05/2329Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10956 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (08 Oct) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (09 Oct).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 113
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 115/112/112
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/008-005/005-019/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/45
Minor Storm           05/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/40