:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (07 Aug, 08 Aug) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 06/0257Z. Total IMF reached 4.0 nT at
06/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3.3 nT at
05/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 536 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 101
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 098/095/090
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  010/012-008/009-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/20
Minor Storm           15/01/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/30