:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar,
02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 26/2140Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1332Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11786 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Feb) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 139
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  010/010-015/018-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/55/50