:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (14 Jul) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (15 Jul,
16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 12/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 13/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1655Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2,231 pfu at 13/1720Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 103
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 110/115/120
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  015/018-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/20