:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2026 Oct 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 09/1622Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 09/1043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1514 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Oct), active to major storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct). III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Oct 121 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 115 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 017/023-024/037-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/45/30 Minor Storm 10/20/10 Major-severe storm 01/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/35/40