:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 13/1559Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/1028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1019Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1519 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 122
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 122/120/118
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  012/015-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/40