:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 310 km/s at 30/1713Z.  Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/0224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
29/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3120 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 093
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  006/005-016/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/40/30