:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 424 km/s at 05/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0257Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1326 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jan, 08 Jan) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 145
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 140/135/132
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  006/005-006/005-015/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/65