:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Sep 08 2215 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).

Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 08/0552Z. Total IMF
reached 14.3 nT at 07/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -9.9 nT at 07/2304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2782 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 110
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  022/028-010/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/25
Minor Storm           40/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/30
Major-severe storm    40/10/30