:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 03/0645Z. Total IMF reached
15.4 nT at 03/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.3
nT at 03/1927Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 126
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/15