:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 09/0555Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 09/1026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1823Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4259 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jun, 12 Jun)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jun). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11
Jun, 12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 130
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 130/130/128
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  011/012-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/35/45