:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 22/1619Z. Total IMF reached
11.9 nT at 22/1130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached NA
-9.86 nT at 22/1121Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 150
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 150/150/155
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  010/012-014/021-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           15/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/55/25