:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May,
06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 845 km/s at 03/1617Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 02/2328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 02/2122Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 5464 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05
May, 06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 152
Predicted   04 May-06 May 155/155/155
90 Day Mean        03 May 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  024/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  012/015-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/40