:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 14/2237Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 665 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 126
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/003-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15