:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT.  Electrons greater than
2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 347 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 117
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  005/005-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15