:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (13 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 11/2113Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/1558Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 4 nT at
12/1505Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       N/A

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 123
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  020/028-016/020-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/20