:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Jan, 29 Jan) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 26/2217Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/1414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/1448Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 13180 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (29 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 144
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 145/140/130
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  017/024-013/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/50/35