:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s. Total IMF reached 12 nT. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT.  Electrons greater than
2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 107
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 109/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  011/012-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    35/10/10