:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 415 km/s at 23/2121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/1937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0328Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 24/0535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1643 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (25 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     30/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 143
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 140/140/138
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  006/005-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40