:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 07/1817Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 07/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/1555Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 780 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 117
Predicted   08 May-10 May 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        07 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  012/015-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/30