:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 10/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/2253Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 157 pfu at 11/1505Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29 pfu at 11/1635Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 10890 pfu, however data was suspect due to proton
contamination.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (13 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
day one (12 Nov), are expected to cross threshold on day two (13 Nov)
and are likely to cross threshold on day three (14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    55/55/55
Proton     99/75/55
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 168
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  066/109-030/055-016/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    85/79/55