:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb)
and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 16/2130Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/2203Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2214 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 122
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  013/015-009/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/40/25