:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul,
19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed averaged near 400 km/s. Total IMF and Bz varied nominally
throughout the period. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1548 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (17 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 101
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 105/110/115
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  007/006-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/10