:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 10/1303 UTC. Total IMF reached
12 nT at 10/0947 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9
nT at 10/0939 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2028 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Jul, 13
Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 107
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  008/012-016/024-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/35/10