:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct,
23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 21/1445Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/1945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 381 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Oct, 24 Oct)
and quiet levels on day two (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 115
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 115/112/112
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  012/014-006/006-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/25