:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 07/0638 UTC. Total IMF reached 08 nT at
07/1746 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -06 nT at
07/2006 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5246 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (09 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 110
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  006/005-011/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/20