:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: NA
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 08/1757Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 07/2210Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 08/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 997 pfu at 08/2025Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (10 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 128
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  013/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  014/020-011/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/20