:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Feb) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 10/1818Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1935Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1,006 pfu at 10/1205Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13
Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Feb),
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Feb) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    65/65/55
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     25/20/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 142
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20