:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 02/1052 UTC. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/1839 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 4 nT at
02/0227 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2,371 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 139
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 105/108/106
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  004/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10