:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (10 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at NA 09/1425 UTC. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 08/2136 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -13 nT at 08/2204 UTC.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 094
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 090/090/092
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  013/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  008/008-009/012-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor Storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/55