:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 30/2038Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 30/1728Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
30/1923Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 420 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 May, 03
May) and quiet levels on day two (02 May). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03
May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 143
Predicted   01 May-03 May 135/130/128
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  011/012-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/35
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/35
Major-severe storm    45/15/40