:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul,
11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 07/2313Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 07/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
08/0428Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 393 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 115
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 118/115/112
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  020/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10