:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Nov,
17 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (18 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 15/0946Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1718Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 15/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (16 Nov) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    60/55/40
Class X    20/15/05
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 132
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 130/125/120
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  011/015-017/022-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/65/45