:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/2133Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1944Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 409 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 May, 13
May) and quiet levels on day two (12 May). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13
May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 126
Predicted   11 May-13 May 128/128/122
90 Day Mean        10 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  009/008-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/10/25