:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct,
26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 23/2139Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
24/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0933Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3259 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 093
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 92/92/88
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  014/ NA-008/ NA-006/ NA

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/10