:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 06/2010Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 06/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/1921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4631 pfu at 06/1720Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (07
Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 125
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  018/020-020/025-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/60