:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 12/1624Z. Total IMF reached 4.1
nT at 12/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.5 nT at
12/1129Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 381 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 099
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 100/102/098
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  007/007-015/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/35
Major-severe storm    20/45/40