:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 05/2252Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 05/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 05/2228Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1284 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun), quiet to severe
storm levels on day two (08 Jun) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (09 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (07 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (08
Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (09
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/25/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 138
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 140/138/136
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  010/010-028/052-026/038

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/50/30
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor Storm           30/10/15
Major-severe storm    20/85/79