:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s. Total IMF reached 19 nT.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/0058Z. 
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 452 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Jul), active to major
storm levels on day two (03 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (04 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 201
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 205/200/195
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  012/012-025/025-020/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/45/10