:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Mar, 15 Mar) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 13/2039Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 13/0940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 13/0813Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 120
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  017/020-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/35
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/45/45