:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 23/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/1812Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1812Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5743 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (25 Apr, 26
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Apr). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Apr), are expected to cross
threshold on day two (26 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    35/30/20
Proton     25/99/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 146
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 152/148/145
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  013/018-016/020-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/30