:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 Jul) and likely
to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (06
Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on
day three (07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 04/1242Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 04/0032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
18 nT at 04/0113Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 319 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07
Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (05 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    75/60/15
Class X    20/10/01
Proton     20/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul  NA
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  NA/ NA/ NA
90 Day Mean        04 Jul  NA

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  042/072
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  014/018-012/015-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    60/35/25