:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Sep,
26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 24/1655Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 24/0600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
24/0812Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 516 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Sep, 26 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 112
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  013/016-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15