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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 17th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled in our direction yesterday by a "dark plasma explosion," described below. Following close behind the CME, a stream of high-speed solar wind could arrive on Aug. 18th, boosting the odds of a geomagnetic storm on that date as well. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
ACTIVE SUNSPOT ALERT: Growing "sunspot AR3078 has developed a delta-class magnetic field," reports Aimee Norton, a senior research scientist at Stanford's Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory. Earlier today, Norton created this magnetic map of the sunspot using data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. It shows opposite polarities jostling together--an explosive mix that could trigger strong (even X-class) solar flares. Indeed, AR3078 is crackling with activity:
A series of M-class solar flares today has caused minor shortwave radio blackouts over the Atlantic Ocean and North America. Mariners, pilots and ham radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 15 MHz especially during the hours between 1500 UT and 1800 UT.
"I don't know how long this will last," says Norton. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
DARK PLASMA EXPLOSION ON THE SUN: Yesterday, Aug. 14th, the sun hurled a plume of cool, dark plasma into space following an explosion around sunspot AR3076. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:
Traveling faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph), the plume tore through the sun's outer atmosphere, creating a coronal mass ejection (CME). Newly updated images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) confirm that the CME has an Earth-directed component. It could sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 17th, producing minor to moderate geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
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REVERSED POLARITY SUNSPOT: The sunspot that produced yesterday's dark plasma explosion is a little unusual. It has its signs backwards.
Above: A magnetic map of the sun’s surface from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
According to Hale’s Law, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots in the sun’s northern hemisphere should have a -/+ polarity; negative on the left, positive on the right. However, the magnetogram above shows the opposite. AR3076 is a reversed polarity sunspot.
Studies show that about 3% of all sunspots violate Hale’s Law. In many ways, reversed polarity sunspots are just like other sunspots. For instance, they have the same lifespan and tend to be about the same size as normal sunspots. In one key way they are different: According to a 1982 survey by Frances Tang of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, reversed polarity sunspots are more than twice as likely to develop complex magnetic fields mixing + and – together. Reversed polarity sunspots are therefore more likely to explode.
This one sure did, and a CME is now heading for Earth. Don't miss the impact.
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"I LOVE YOU FOREVER" MOONSTONE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the "I Love You Forever" Moonstone. This one hitched a ride to the stratosphere onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon:
You can have it for $162.95. The moonstone's sterling silver infinity wrap is inscribed with the words "I love you forever." It makes a great anniversary, birthday or Christmas gift. The moonstone comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight, telling the story of its trip to the edge of space and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Aug 15, 2022, the network reported 26 fireballs.
(15 Perseids, 10 sporadics, 1 southern iota Aquariid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On August 15, 2022 there were 2290 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2022 PA1 | 2022-Aug-10 | 2.7 LD | 16.3 | 18 |
2022 PK1 | 2022-Aug-11 | 13.6 LD | 10.2 | 33 |
2015 FF | 2022-Aug-12 | 11.2 LD | 9.2 | 17 |
2022 PX1 | 2022-Aug-12 | 2.8 LD | 35.1 | 125 |
2022 OT1 | 2022-Aug-13 | 12.4 LD | 5.8 | 36 |
2022 OA4 | 2022-Aug-14 | 18.2 LD | 7.9 | 23 |
2022 PJ1 | 2022-Aug-16 | 11 LD | 5.9 | 19 |
2022 PW | 2022-Aug-16 | 1.4 LD | 7.5 | 30 |
2022 PC | 2022-Aug-18 | 16.5 LD | 4.1 | 61 |
2019 AV13 | 2022-Aug-20 | 13.8 LD | 9.2 | 135 |
2020 QW3 | 2022-Aug-22 | 14.1 LD | 18.1 | 30 |
2015 QH3 | 2022-Aug-22 | 5.6 LD | 7 | 14 |
2017 BU | 2022-Aug-29 | 15.8 LD | 7 | 32 |
2021 CQ5 | 2022-Sep-01 | 8.7 LD | 13.5 | 7 |
2008 RW | 2022-Sep-12 | 17.5 LD | 10.2 | 98 |
2020 PT4 | 2022-Sep-15 | 19.7 LD | 10.8 | 39 |
2016 HF2 | 2022-Sep-29 | 19.2 LD | 5.6 | 21 |
2018 ER1 | 2022-Oct-02 | 14.7 LD | 4 | 27 |
2018 VG | 2022-Oct-05 | 18.5 LD | 6.7 | 12 |
2021 TJ10 | 2022-Oct-06 | 19.6 LD | 8.1 | 6 |
2006 SG7 | 2022-Oct-07 | 16.7 LD | 18.4 | 93 |
2013 TJ6 | 2022-Oct-07 | 11.7 LD | 14.4 | 32 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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