| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 2.00 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 2.00 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 6.87 nT Bz: -2.79 nT south more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1146 UT Coronal Holes: 14 Dec 22 Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 18th. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 1st. Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar Updated Dec14 SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2022 Dec 14 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 75 % | 60 % | CLASS X | 15 % | 10 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2022 Dec 14 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 10 % | 10 % | MINOR | 01 % | 01 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 20 % | 20 % | SEVERE | 20 % | 20 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when magnetic storms erupt. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. You can, too! | | | INTENSIFYING SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY: New sunspot AR3165 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, an M6-class explosion (Dec. 14 @ 1442 UT) caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. If current trends continue, the sunspot could produce an X-flare by the end of the day. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text. THE MYSTERY OF SPIRAL AURORAS: On Dec. 11th, the sky over Tromso, Norway, was blank and featureless. "Suddenly, auroras came out of nowhere, forming an extraordinary spiral," reports Marek Rybar. The giant swirl was so large, he had to stitch together 4 photos to frame the entire display: Compared to other forms, spiral auroras are rare, and sky watchers are always delighted to see them. But what causes them? Researchers have been debating the issue for more than 50 years. A few things are known. Spiral auroras rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere, and counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere. They can be as small as 15 km, or as large as 1300 km. And they're usually green. Over the years, two completely different theories have vied to explain the vortices. Theory #1 (circa 1976) says that magnetic fields in Earth's upper atmosphere are sometimes twisted by powerful Birkeland currents. Auroras follow magnetic field lines, so a twisted field would naturally create a twisted aurora. Theory #2 (circa 1996) counters that spiral auroras are more likely Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities in Earth's ionosphere. This is the same type of instability that makes beautiful spiral clouds in the lower atmosphere, so it might work in the aurora zone as well. Now there's a new idea just published in Sept. 2022: Theory #3 says that spiral auroras are created by a "tearing mode instability." This is a type of plasma instability that can occur when magnetic fields re-connnect and explode. Here are some simulated spiral auroras based on this model: Source: "Auroral Spiral Structure Formation Through Magnetic Reconnection in the Auroral Acceleration Region" by K. Huang et al (Geophysical Research Letters) The model produces spirals of about the right size, and they rotate in the correct direction. If it is correct, explosive magnetic reconnection powers the auroras while the tearing instability twists the lights into a spiral. A movie of the tearing mode in action (unaffiliated with the research) lends credence to their conclusions. Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons. These unique gifts have floated above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out. Don't forget to enter coupon code "SPACESANTA" at checkout for a 10% holiday discount. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Dec 13, 2022, the network reported 33 fireballs. (15 Geminids, 14 sporadics, 2 sigma Hydrids, 1 Monocerotid, 1 Quadrantid) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On December 14, 2022 there were 2320 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2022 XU | 2022-Dec-09 | 19.2 LD | 14.7 | 43 | 2022 WP11 | 2022-Dec-09 | 11.9 LD | 17.3 | 63 | 2022 XJ | 2022-Dec-09 | 6.8 LD | 10.2 | 17 | 2022 WW | 2022-Dec-10 | 19.2 LD | 6.2 | 30 | 2019 XY | 2022-Dec-10 | 3.6 LD | 12.9 | 9 | 2022 XV | 2022-Dec-10 | 4.7 LD | 13.9 | 46 | 2003 YS70 | 2022-Dec-13 | 10.4 LD | 4.1 | 5 | 2019 XQ1 | 2022-Dec-13 | 14.5 LD | 9.8 | 30 | 2018 XU3 | 2022-Dec-13 | 14.8 LD | 10.3 | 28 | 2022 XY | 2022-Dec-14 | 11.4 LD | 4.4 | 25 | 2021 XS4 | 2022-Dec-14 | 14.5 LD | 9.7 | 23 | 2022 XX | 2022-Dec-14 | 0.5 LD | 6.6 | 7 | 2015 RN35 | 2022-Dec-15 | 1.8 LD | 5.9 | 85 | 2022 XO | 2022-Dec-15 | 8.4 LD | 8.6 | 20 | 2022 WU11 | 2022-Dec-17 | 11.7 LD | 10.6 | 31 | 2016 YE | 2022-Dec-18 | 18.6 LD | 4.8 | 23 | 2022 XC1 | 2022-Dec-18 | 8.3 LD | 7.1 | 21 | 2014 HK129 | 2022-Dec-20 | 6.7 LD | 11.6 | 216 | 2017 XQ60 | 2022-Dec-21 | 18.8 LD | 16 | 45 | 2022 UD9 | 2022-Dec-22 | 4.6 LD | 10.3 | 159 | 2022 RD2 | 2022-Dec-22 | 13.9 LD | 1.1 | 7 | 2022 XN | 2022-Dec-24 | 8.5 LD | 11 | 49 | 2013 YA14 | 2022-Dec-25 | 2.7 LD | 10.5 | 68 | 2022 TE14 | 2022-Dec-25 | 11.2 LD | 7 | 127 | 2018 YK2 | 2022-Dec-26 | 15.8 LD | 15.1 | 98 | 2022 WV9 | 2022-Dec-27 | 6.5 LD | 7.2 | 42 | 2010 XC15 | 2022-Dec-27 | 2 LD | 10.1 | 182 | 2021 AE | 2022-Dec-28 | 16.5 LD | 15 | 23 | 2021 NF | 2023-Jan-02 | 17.9 LD | 11.3 | 40 | 2011 WR41 | 2023-Jan-03 | 15.8 LD | 8.9 | 34 | 2019 AY3 | 2023-Jan-04 | 16.8 LD | 19.7 | 62 | 2021 TL | 2023-Jan-09 | 14.2 LD | 8.5 | 75 | 2014 LJ | 2023-Jan-14 | 4.8 LD | 3.5 | 7 | 2012 BV13 | 2023-Jan-16 | 12.2 LD | 6.7 | 134 | 2020 BP | 2023-Jan-20 | 5.2 LD | 16.9 | 26 | 2019 BO2 | 2023-Jan-24 | 12.1 LD | 16.2 | 21 | 2019 BZ4 | 2023-Jan-24 | 16.5 LD | 5.6 | 20 | 2020 BZ14 | 2023-Jan-26 | 8.8 LD | 6.7 | 54 | 2022 SO113 | 2023-Jan-29 | 10.5 LD | 3.5 | 73 | 2017 DU34 | 2023-Feb-02 | 13.3 LD | 11.2 | 16 | 367789 | 2023-Feb-03 | 4.7 LD | 9.9 | 149 | 2020 OO1 | 2023-Feb-04 | 4.8 LD | 7.7 | 19 | 2022 CX1 | 2023-Feb-09 | 17.4 LD | 13.2 | 14 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low: What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page | | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather | | BestCSGOGambling is the best site for everything related to CSGO gambling on the web | | To find reviews of new online casino sites in the UK try The Casino DB where there are hundreds of online casino reviews complete with bonuses and ratings. 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