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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 413.4 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1
2014 UT Nov12
24-hr: C2
0413 UT Nov12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 12 Nov 20
New sunspot AR2782 isn't big, but it is unstable. The active region is crackling with C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 24
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 12 Nov 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 204 days (65%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 12 Nov 2020


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 5.68
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 12 Nov 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 88 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 12 Nov 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.7% High
48-hr change: +0.2%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 12 Nov 2020 @ 1700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.3 nT
Bz: 0.4 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 12 Nov 20

A weak stream of solar wind flowing from this shallow coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 14th?
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now and then, Earth has no noctilucent clouds.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2020 Nov 12 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2020 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
10 %
15 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
20 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
25 %
SEVERE
10 %
20 %
 
Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020
What's up in space
       
 

Never miss another geomagnetic storm. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and you'll receive a text message when auroras appear in your area. Aurora tour guides and professional astronomers use this service. Now you can, too!

 

RETURN OF THE RED AURORAS: Last night (Nov. 11-12), rare red auroras returned to Finland. "The red color was not visible to the naked eye, but large red streaks appeared in short exposures with our cameras," reports photographer Rayann Elzein. Just like last month, when the same thing happened, the red hue appeared when the solar wind was slow and unusually dense. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY (UPDATED): There's a new spot on the sun: AR2782. It's not very large, but it is unstable. The active region is crackling with C-class solar flares. The action began on Nov. 11th (1910 UT) with this category C2 eruption:

Watch the animation again. Do you see a sudden dimming just outside the blast site? The explosion actually blew hot gas out of the sun's atmosphere, leaving a relatively dark void behind.

The flare hurled a CME (coronal mass ejection) into space. NOAA analysts have determined that the CME will not hit Earth. Future eruptions may be geoeffective, however, as the sunspot turns to face out planet. CME alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

HOW TO FIND COMET ATLAS: If you know your way around the constellation Orion, you won't have trouble finding Comet ATLAS (C/2020 M3). "The comet is located to the right and slightly below the Belt of Orion," says David Blanchard, who sends this photo from Flagstaff, Arizona:

That was on Nov. 9th. Now the green comet is just above the Belt of Orion. Comet ATLAS is in a new location every night as it glides toward Orion's head. A key date is Nov. 15th. Within hours of its closest approach to Earth, Comet ATLAS will pass a fraction of a degree from the bright star Bellatrix, Orion's left shoulder. Deep exposures may show Bellatrix shining through the outskirts of ATLAS's atmosphere. Sky maps: Nov. 12, 13, 14, 15, 16.

Note: You cannot see Comet ATLAS with your unaided eye. At closest approach on Nov. 14th, the comet will shine like an 8th magnitude star--about 6 times too dim for naked-eye visibility. It is, however, an easy target for backyard telescopes and off-the-shelf cameras.

Realtime Comet ATLAS Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

BLUE AURORA SPACE PENDANT: Inspired by the rarest of all auroras--blue ones--the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched this pendant onboard a cosmic ray balloon. On Oct 24th, it soared to the stratosphere 102,362 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California:

You can have it for $99.95. The students are selling blue aurora pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again.

The pendant's face shows an outburst of blue auroras, caused by the solar wind activating ionized nitrogen molecules at the top of Earth's atmosphere. A howling Arctic Wolf is silhouetted in the foreground.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter


  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Nov. 12, 2020, the network reported 12 fireballs.
(10 sporadics, 2 Northern Taurids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 12, 2020 there were 2037 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2020 TY1
2020-Nov-07
14.7 LD
13
106
2020 VN1
2020-Nov-07
1.2 LD
3.3
10
2020 VG2
2020-Nov-07
3 LD
9.8
5
2019 XS
2020-Nov-07
15.1 LD
9.5
51
2020 VU2
2020-Nov-08
2.3 LD
23.2
9
2020 VH2
2020-Nov-08
3.5 LD
10.4
8
2020 VJ1
2020-Nov-09
1.2 LD
19
16
2020 VR1
2020-Nov-09
1 LD
12.5
6
2020 VU1
2020-Nov-09
18.5 LD
5.4
23
2018 VS4
2020-Nov-10
16.2 LD
10.1
25
2020 UN3
2020-Nov-10
11.6 LD
7.6
48
2020 UL3
2020-Nov-10
15.4 LD
11.2
78
2020 VP1
2020-Nov-11
0.5 LD
21.8
10
2020 VW1
2020-Nov-12
3.6 LD
6.1
9
2020 VC1
2020-Nov-12
4.3 LD
6.1
28
2020 VC
2020-Nov-12
13.8 LD
11.2
34
2020 VL1
2020-Nov-13
3.8 LD
5
13
2020 VC2
2020-Nov-14
8 LD
7
10
2020 TB9
2020-Nov-14
13.1 LD
6
25
2020 ST1
2020-Nov-14
19.1 LD
8.1
144
2019 VL5
2020-Nov-15
8.5 LD
8.2
23
2020 VS1
2020-Nov-16
7.3 LD
8.4
16
2020 UB5
2020-Nov-16
20 LD
4.4
35
2020 VY
2020-Nov-17
16.3 LD
11.6
37
2020 VQ2
2020-Nov-18
4 LD
10.8
17
2020 VA1
2020-Nov-20
11.7 LD
8.7
37
2020 VR2
2020-Nov-21
6.1 LD
6.6
12
2020 VW2
2020-Nov-23
18.6 LD
6.7
14
2017 WJ16
2020-Nov-23
5 LD
4.8
49
2020 TJ8
2020-Nov-24
16.8 LD
4.6
33
2018 RQ4
2020-Nov-26
8.1 LD
7.4
15
2020 VO2
2020-Nov-26
12.7 LD
6.1
17
2020 KZ2
2020-Nov-28
5.7 LD
3.9
10
153201
2020-Nov-29
11.2 LD
25.1
490
2020 SO
2020-Dec-01
0.1 LD
3.9
6
2019 XH2
2020-Dec-02
16.1 LD
6.4
6
2018 PK21
2020-Dec-08
12.2 LD
3.1
23
2019 XQ1
2020-Dec-13
18.4 LD
8.6
30
2020 VY1
2020-Dec-16
13.1 LD
4.4
21
2017 XQ60
2020-Dec-21
10.8 LD
15.6
47
2011 CL50
2020-Dec-24
3.1 LD
3.4
11
501647
2020-Dec-25
7.9 LD
10
123
2012 XE133
2020-Dec-27
11.7 LD
9.2
74
2016 AF2
2020-Dec-27
7.3 LD
5.3
9
2012 UK171
2020-Dec-30
15.5 LD
4.7
47
2019 YB4
2021-Jan-02
16.8 LD
7.2
16
2003 AF23
2021-Jan-03
18.3 LD
15.8
235
2019 QW2
2021-Jan-03
8.8 LD
4.9
39
2012 BT1
2021-Jan-04
13.6 LD
7.7
12
2016 CO247
2021-Jan-06
19.3 LD
16.7
282
2018 KP1
2021-Jan-06
8.2 LD
4.4
34
332446
2021-Jan-06
9.6 LD
11
408
2015 NU13
2021-Jan-09
14.8 LD
15.1
408
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

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