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THE SOLAR FLYBY OF COMET 96P: Some comets like it hot--especially comet 96P/Machholz. The 6-km-wide dirty snowball just flew past the sun deep inside the orbit of Mercury and survived. Play this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) to see the entire flyby. Researchers working with the SOHO data say they may have a surprise to share in the days ahead. Stay tuned!
SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 9-YEAR HIGH: In a continued sign of strength for Solar Cycle 25, sunspot counts just hit a 9-year high. This plot from NOAA shows how the monthly sunspot number skyrocketed in January 2023:
The monthly sunspot number of 144 in January 2023 was only percentage points away from topping the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, which peaked in Feb. 2014 with a monthly value of 146.
Originally, forecasters thought Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. Current trends suggest Solar Cycle 25 will surpass that low threshold, at least. Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so it has plenty of time to strengthen further, bringing X-flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras. You can follow the progression here.
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"WEAK" CME IMPACT SPARKS AURORAS: An unexpected CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 1st at 18:54 UTC, causing a 10 nanoTesla jolt in magnetometer readings from Canberra, Australia. This is considered to be a weak impact. Nevertheless, it was enough to spark auroras around the Arctic Circle:
"What an amazing night!!!" says Marianne Bergli, who photographed the display from Storfjord, Norway. "It looked like a green serpent was dancing around the Moon."
The instigating CME may have been one of many CMEs that left the sun in recent days (watch this movie) but which, initially, did not appear to be Earth directed. When multiple CMEs overlap in coronagraph images, it can be difficult to sort out their individual trajectories. As a result of such confusion, more minor impacts are possible in the days ahead. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
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HOWLING WOLF HEART PENDANT: It's the perfect Valentine's gift for a Nature lover. On Jan. 6, 2023, this Howling Wolf Heart Pendant flew to the stratosphere onboard an Earth to Sky cosmic ray research balloon, floating more than 105,546 ft above the snow-capped Sierras of central California:
You can have it for $99.95. The hypoallergenic heart-shaped pendant features a loving pair of howling Arctic wolves, a shooting star, the full Moon, and sheets of aurora borealis. It comes with a greeting card showing the pendent in flight and telling the story of its trip to the edge of space and back again.
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LUNAR OCCULTATION OF MARS: On Monday night, Jan. 30th, the Moon passed directly in front of Mars, producing a lunar occultation visible from southern parts of the USA and all of central America. Juan José Ortiz photographed the event from Metepec, Mexico:
"I captured Mars rising over Mare Smythii as it was emerging from behind the Moon," says Ortiz. "What a view!"
The next good lunar occultation of Mars isn't until Jan. 13, 2025.
Until then, here are some more images: from Gregg Ruppel of Oro Valley Arizona; from Eliot Herman of Tucson AZ; from Dr. Gilbert Plumer of Rockledge, Florida; from Bob Beal of St. George, Utah; from John Ashley of Rio Rico, Arizona; from Andres Paez Joannis of Chihuahua, Chih. Mexico; from John Vertson of Clovis, CA;
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Feb 02 2023, the network reported 13 fireballs.
(13 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On February 2, 2023 there were 2326 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2023 BC | 2023-Jan-28 | 7.4 LD | 12.8 | 37 |
2023 BG7 | 2023-Jan-28 | 1.1 LD | 18.1 | 10 |
2023 BE7 | 2023-Jan-28 | 2.1 LD | 14.7 | 17 |
2023 BL4 | 2023-Jan-29 | 11.1 LD | 7.8 | 21 |
2023 BM5 | 2023-Jan-29 | 2 LD | 15.5 | 13 |
2022 SO113 | 2023-Jan-29 | 10.5 LD | 3.5 | 73 |
2023 BK4 | 2023-Jan-29 | 7.3 LD | 8.2 | 18 |
2023 BV5 | 2023-Jan-30 | 6.6 LD | 3.2 | 10 |
2023 BJ7 | 2023-Jan-30 | 1 LD | 8 | 6 |
2023 CA | 2023-Jan-30 | 1.7 LD | 12.6 | 21 |
2023 BA3 | 2023-Jan-30 | 3.4 LD | 8.8 | 19 |
2023 AS1 | 2023-Jan-31 | 11.8 LD | 6.2 | 24 |
2023 BA4 | 2023-Jan-31 | 17.7 LD | 7.9 | 40 |
2023 BQ2 | 2023-Jan-31 | 5.7 LD | 13.9 | 17 |
2023 BP6 | 2023-Feb-01 | 6.8 LD | 9.7 | 60 |
2023 CB | 2023-Feb-01 | 16 LD | 7.9 | 20 |
2017 DU34 | 2023-Feb-02 | 13.3 LD | 11.2 | 16 |
2023 BY4 | 2023-Feb-02 | 12.9 LD | 10.8 | 41 |
2023 BP5 | 2023-Feb-02 | 4.4 LD | 6.3 | 14 |
2023 BB8 | 2023-Feb-02 | 15.6 LD | 11.2 | 31 |
2023 BH6 | 2023-Feb-02 | 5.8 LD | 9.7 | 8 |
2023 BX7 | 2023-Feb-02 | 4.2 LD | 13.5 | 34 |
2023 BR5 | 2023-Feb-03 | 10.9 LD | 7.9 | 11 |
367789 | 2023-Feb-03 | 4.7 LD | 9.9 | 149 |
2023 BN6 | 2023-Feb-04 | 2 LD | 7.5 | 33 |
2020 OO1 | 2023-Feb-04 | 4.8 LD | 7.7 | 19 |
2023 BO7 | 2023-Feb-04 | 14.3 LD | 5.1 | 13 |
2023 BZ7 | 2023-Feb-04 | 12.1 LD | 9.3 | 22 |
2023 BC4 | 2023-Feb-04 | 16.2 LD | 11.6 | 53 |
2023 BG4 | 2023-Feb-05 | 17.2 LD | 10.4 | 32 |
2023 BT1 | 2023-Feb-06 | 16.8 LD | 8.8 | 30 |
2023 CC | 2023-Feb-06 | 3.9 LD | 9 | 20 |
2022 YO6 | 2023-Feb-06 | 12.1 LD | 13.4 | 164 |
2023 BU7 | 2023-Feb-08 | 1.3 LD | 1.7 | 3 |
2023 BS | 2023-Feb-08 | 19.4 LD | 10.9 | 35 |
2023 BO8 | 2023-Feb-08 | 4.2 LD | 6.6 | 14 |
2022 CX1 | 2023-Feb-09 | 17.4 LD | 13.2 | 14 |
2023 BC8 | 2023-Feb-11 | 15.4 LD | 14 | 53 |
2021 EP4 | 2023-Feb-13 | 19 LD | 6.1 | 5 |
199145 | 2023-Feb-16 | 12 LD | 24.6 | 756 |
2022 RG | 2023-Feb-16 | 8.2 LD | 3 | 24 |
2020 DG4 | 2023-Feb-17 | 1.4 LD | 6.9 | 8 |
2020 CX1 | 2023-Feb-19 | 17.4 LD | 7.7 | 53 |
37638 | 2023-Feb-21 | 17 LD | 11.1 | 495 |
2023 AA2 | 2023-Feb-22 | 17.4 LD | 10.1 | 134 |
2012 DK31 | 2023-Feb-27 | 12.6 LD | 15.5 | 148 |
2006 BE55 | 2023-Feb-28 | 9.4 LD | 13.3 | 148 |
2021 QW | 2023-Mar-03 | 13.9 LD | 12.1 | 79 |
2017 BM123 | 2023-Mar-03 | 12.1 LD | 7.8 | 62 |
2007 ED125 | 2023-Mar-03 | 11.7 LD | 13.1 | 224 |
2015 EG | 2023-Mar-04 | 13.9 LD | 10.6 | 27 |
2023 BK5 | 2023-Mar-05 | 17.9 LD | 8.5 | 59 |
535844 | 2023-Mar-07 | 10.5 LD | 7.7 | 150 |
2020 FQ | 2023-Mar-09 | 14 LD | 6.3 | 13 |
2020 FV4 | 2023-Mar-13 | 17.6 LD | 8.2 | 30 |
2018 UQ1 | 2023-Mar-17 | 10.7 LD | 11.7 | 143 |
2016 WH | 2023-Mar-19 | 18.1 LD | 11.8 | 14 |
2018 FE3 | 2023-Mar-21 | 10.1 LD | 5.4 | 13 |
2022 YK4 | 2023-Mar-29 | 11.9 LD | 2.3 | 25 |
2017 SE12 | 2023-Mar-30 | 5.2 LD | 8.4 | 15 |
2016 GH1 | 2023-Mar-30 | 7.7 LD | 5.8 | 11 |
2022 GO3 | 2023-Apr-02 | 17 LD | 11.6 | 15 |
2021 GN1 | 2023-Apr-02 | 17.7 LD | 14.2 | 18 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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