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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 477.7 km/sec
density: 7.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2344 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A7
2222 UT Dec02
24-hr: B2
1244 UT Dec02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 02 Dec 21
Expand: labels | no labels
These sunspots have uncomplicated, stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 37
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 02 Dec 2021

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2021 total: 60 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 02 Dec 2021


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 7.78
x1010 W Cool
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 02 Dec 2021

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 86 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 02 Dec 2021

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +8.1% High
48-hr change: -0.6%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 02 Dec 2021 @ 1700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.6 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 02 Dec 21

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 4-5.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2021 Dec 02 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2021 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
30 %
25 %
MINOR
15 %
10 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
30 %
25 %
SEVERE
40 %
35 %
 
Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021
What's up in space
       
 

Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure!

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 3rd when a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on Nov. 29th by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun's southern hemisphere (movie). According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss just as likely as a glancing blow. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

A SUDDEN DROP IN ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION: Last month, a "Cannibal CME" hit Earth, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm and auroras as far south as California and New Mexico. You might think such a storm would boost radiation in Earth's atmosphere. Think again. High-altitude balloons hurriedly launched by Earth to Sky Calculus during the storm on Nov. 3rd and 4th found just the opposite. Radiation in the stratosphere plummeted:


This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century.  It happens when a coronal mass ejection (CME) sweeps past Earth and pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.

We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our entire dataset.


Above: This is the CME that caused the Forbush decrease

This event illustrates the yin-yang relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays. As solar activity increases, more and more CMEs billow away from the sun, pushing cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. This is one reason we expect cosmic radiation to subside in the years ahead as young Solar Cycle 25 intensifies. Click here to learn more.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Christmas is coming. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Check out the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.

These unique gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out.

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PHOTO-OP ALERT: Comet Leonard (described below) is about to have a close encounter with globular cluster M3, a super photo-op for astrophotographers. Closest approach: Dec. 3rd. Gregg Ruppel of New Mexico sends this preview.

COMET LEONARD APPROACHES EARTH: The brightest comet of the year is approaching Earth. On Dec. 12, 2021, Comet Leonard (C/2021 A1) will be just 35 million kilometers away and could be visible to the naked eye in the early morning sky. "Below is my first capture of Comet Leonard," reports Darrell Spangler of Estes Park, Colorado. "It was much brighter than I expected."

Spangler photographed the comet on Nov. 30th using a 2.4 inch Raptor Radian telescope and a Canon 5Ds digital camera. "It was an easy target," he says.

Right now, Comet Leonard is in the northern constellation Canes Venatici (the Hunting Dogs) shining like a fuzzy star of magnitude +7. During the 10 days, the comet's brightness will sharply increase. Most forecasters agree that Comet Leonard will reach magnitude +4, easy to see in small telescopes and visible to the naked eye from dark-sky sites during the second week of December.


Above: The blue curve traces the predicted brightness of Comet Leonard. Crosses are recent observations. Credit: Comet Observation Database

As the comet approaches the sun in early January, forward scattering of sunlight through the comet's dusty atmosphere could create an additional surge in brightness to magnitude +1. The same phenomenon worked on Comet McNaught in 2007, making it visible in broad daylight. Stay tuned for updates as Comet Leonard draws near.


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Dec 02, 2021, the network reported 36 fireballs.
(34 sporadics, 1 Nov. omega Orionid, 1 Geminid)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On December 2, 2021 there were 2241 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2021 VM
2021-Nov-27
9.4 LD
8.9
30
2021 WG3
2021-Nov-28
8.4 LD
15.6
17
2021 WC1
2021-Nov-28
0.5 LD
11.7
7
2021 VO12
2021-Nov-28
7.3 LD
13.5
52
2021 WM4
2021-Nov-28
1.4 LD
16.2
10
2021 WF5
2021-Nov-28
12.3 LD
8.5
14
1994 WR12
2021-Nov-29
16.1 LD
8.8
123
2021 WS4
2021-Nov-29
1.3 LD
2.4
3
2021 XB
2021-Nov-29
2.9 LD
17.9
8
2021 WY2
2021-Nov-29
2.5 LD
27.6
14
2021 WU2
2021-Nov-30
8.7 LD
6.3
11
2021 WK1
2021-Nov-30
2.7 LD
8
20
2021 WJ1
2021-Nov-30
4.5 LD
10.2
13
2021 WH2
2021-Nov-30
6.2 LD
7.3
9
2021 WP2
2021-Dec-01
3.1 LD
7.3
16
2021 WC4
2021-Dec-01
3.2 LD
14.3
8
2021 WR4
2021-Dec-01
1.1 LD
4.6
3
2021 WR
2021-Dec-01
6.8 LD
8.8
29
2021 WF3
2021-Dec-01
0.4 LD
11.7
5
2021 WE5
2021-Dec-01
14.6 LD
7.5
12
2021 WK4
2021-Dec-02
4.6 LD
10.1
10
2021 WF2
2021-Dec-02
11.7 LD
12.6
35
2021 WC3
2021-Dec-02
1.4 LD
12.8
7
2021 WN4
2021-Dec-02
12.4 LD
8
38
2021 WN2
2021-Dec-02
5.7 LD
8.5
17
2021 WZ1
2021-Dec-03
2 LD
13
17
2021 UP4
2021-Dec-04
13.9 LD
8.3
53
2021 WZ2
2021-Dec-05
8.4 LD
13.5
22
2021 XF
2021-Dec-05
2.3 LD
8.2
8
2021 WA5
2021-Dec-05
8.7 LD
5.8
12
2021 VX7
2021-Dec-06
14.8 LD
6.1
41
2021 WE1
2021-Dec-06
5.6 LD
9
20
2021 WM2
2021-Dec-06
8.2 LD
12.3
22
2021 WL2
2021-Dec-06
7 LD
7.5
16
2021 XE
2021-Dec-06
4 LD
3.1
6
2021 XC
2021-Dec-08
6.5 LD
6.9
20
2021 WT4
2021-Dec-08
10.8 LD
6.4
18
2021 WA3
2021-Dec-09
17.2 LD
7
17
2021 WW3
2021-Dec-09
5.6 LD
7.6
14
2021 WV1
2021-Dec-11
1.5 LD
3
7
2021 XG
2021-Dec-11
7.6 LD
4.9
8
4660
2021-Dec-11
10.3 LD
6.6
759
2021 WJ3
2021-Dec-11
9.9 LD
5.5
22
2021 WQ1
2021-Dec-12
7.8 LD
8.8
27
2021 WZ5
2021-Dec-13
4.6 LD
1.9
5
2021 VW27
2021-Dec-13
18.7 LD
8.4
40
2019 XQ1
2021-Dec-13
14.1 LD
9.1
30
2021 WW2
2021-Dec-13
14.3 LD
10.8
28
2021 VT6
2021-Dec-14
7.7 LD
6.9
50
2021 WZ4
2021-Dec-14
5 LD
14
39
2004 YC
2021-Dec-15
18.4 LD
8.1
27
163899
2021-Dec-17
14.2 LD
5.6
1093
2021 LX3
2021-Dec-18
19.7 LD
6.5
124
2016 YY10
2021-Dec-21
11.3 LD
9.2
23
2017 XQ60
2021-Dec-21
13.7 LD
15.7
47
2016 TR54
2021-Dec-24
16.9 LD
15.5
135
2018 AH
2021-Dec-27
11.9 LD
12.7
112
2017 AE3
2021-Dec-29
9.3 LD
19.1
155
2014 YE15
2022-Jan-06
19.3 LD
6.4
8
2020 AP1
2022-Jan-07
4.6 LD
5.7
4
2013 YD48
2022-Jan-11
14.6 LD
14.8
107
2021 BA
2022-Jan-18
9.8 LD
9.1
22
7482
2022-Jan-18
5.2 LD
19.6
1732
2018 PN22
2022-Jan-21
11.4 LD
2.7
11
2017 XC62
2022-Jan-24
18.7 LD
4.3
112
2021 BZ
2022-Jan-27
17.6 LD
14.6
39
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (Nov. 2021): Our balloons have just measured a sudden drop in atmospheric radiation. It happened during the strong geomagnetic storms of Nov. 3-4, 2021. Here are the data:

This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century.  It happens when a CME from the sun sweeps past Earth and literally pushes cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.

We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush Decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our dataset. 

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes, so we can sample radiation where planes fly. This plot shows how the Forbush decrease was restricted to the stratosphere; it did not affect lower levels of the atmosphere:

The dose rates shown above are expressed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) link cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

.Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

To get the best views of the cosmos, check out the Phoenix Window Glass Replacement experts for all your window and glass needs

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