You are viewing the page for Nov. 21, 2019
  Select another date:
<<back forward>>
You entered an invalid date. This is yesterday's edition.
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 579.3 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A8
1837 UT Nov21
24-hr: A8
0931 UT Nov21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2300 UT
Daily Sun: 21 Nov 19
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 21 Nov 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2019 total: 244 days (75%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 21 Nov 2019


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.67
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 21
Nov 2019

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 21 Nov 2019

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2019 are near a Space Age peak.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.8% High
7-day change: +0.4%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 21 Nov 2019 @ 1530 UT

Since 2015, Earth to Sky cosmic ray balloons launched weekly from California have also detected significant increases in atmospheric radiation. Dose rates reported below are in the stratosphere at approx. 100,000 ft.

California Cosmic Ray Balloons
Monitoring started in March 2015
now: 4.46 uGy/hr High
change since 2015: +18%
Max: 4.79 uGy/hr High
(10/2019)
Min: 3.80 uGy/hr Low (05/2015)
explanation | more data
Updated 16 Nov 2019

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.3 nT
Bz: -1.7 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2346 UT
Coronal Holes: 20 Nov 19

Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 15th--the earliest start in recorded history. Check here for daily images from NASA's AIM spacecraft.
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar
Updated at: 11-20-2019 21:55:02 UT
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2019 Nov 21 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2019 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
30 %
25 %
MINOR
10 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
30 %
30 %
SEVERE
40 %
30 %
 
Thursday, Nov. 21, 2019
What's up in space
       
 

Marianne’s Arctic tours: Operating in small groups of 7 to 14 persons--all needs supplied for safety, comfort and pleasure. Night & day photography or non-photographic landscape - wildlife tours. Click for details!

 

POSSIBLE OUTBURST OF ALPHA MONOCEROTID METEORS: This week, Earth will pass by a stream of dusty debris from an unnamed comet. Forecasters believe the close encounter could cause an outburst of alpha Monocerotid meteors. The time to look is 04:50 UT on Nov. 22nd (11:50 p.m. EST on Nov. 21st). This timing favors observers in western Europe and eastern parts of Canada and the USA. More: full story, sky map.

WHO CAN SEE THE METEOR OUTBURST? Tonight, Thursday, Nov. 21st, around 11:50  p.m. EST, Earth will pass by a filament of comet dust. This might produce a brief outburst of alpha Monocerotid meteors. Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office has prepared a map showing who in the USA can see the show:

Sky watchers on the east coast are favored. They could potentially see 100 or more meteors during the event. Sky watchers on the west coast, however, are out of luck. The shower's radiant in the constellation Monoceros (the Unicorn) will be below the horizon.

Of course, there's no guarantee anyone will see anything. Only a handful of alpha Monocerotid outbursts have been observed in the past century, which means researchers are still mapping the filament of comet dust. Earth could hit a extra-dense spot, resulting in an amazing display, or pass through a void, producing nothing.

If anything happens we will post it here. So stay tuned!

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a sprawling hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact with the gaseous material on Nov. 20th produced an outburst of auroras over Scandinavia. Markus Varik sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:

"Today we greeted some of the most beautiful Night Butterflies I have seen!" says Varik. "The first effects of the solar wind stream have arrived--and I am really, really keen to see what the upcoming days will bring. Maybe a dinosaur, a bear or why not even a unicorn?"

In Abisko, Sweden, off-duty aurora tour guides Oliver Wright and Chris Hodgson rushed outside to photograph the display. "We set up our cameras on the edge of Lake Torneträsk behind some ice-covered trees," says Wright. "I've wanted to take this picture for years."

"The place was lethal walking ... well, more crawling ... on uneven wet ice, above a big drop into the lake with waves crashing below! " says Wright. "Other than that, it was a magic night."

Tonight could be magic as well. NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on Nov. 21st as Earth moves deeper into the stream. If such a storm materializes, auroras could descend into northern-tier US states such as Michigan and Minnesota. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Realtime Spaceweather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

THE SUNFLOWER SPACE PENDANT: Are you looking for a far-out gift? Consider the sunflower space pendant. On Oct. 18, 2019, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. This cheerful pendant went along for the ride, 109,923 feet high:

You can have it for $109.92 (its altitude divided by 1000). The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each rose gold-plated pendant comes with a greeting card showing the flower in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again. They make great birthday, anniversary and Christmas gifts.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Nov. 21, 2019, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(12 sporadics, 2 Leonids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 21, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2019 WC
2019-Nov-17
9.2 LD
7.6
18
2019 UR2
2019-Nov-18
18 LD
13.4
131
2019 WH
2019-Nov-19
0.2 LD
11
21
2019 UK6
2019-Nov-20
15.4 LD
7.7
66
2019 WN
2019-Nov-20
16.7 LD
10
34
2019 WF
2019-Nov-20
1.6 LD
11.6
14
2019 WE
2019-Nov-20
3.3 LD
8.5
16
481394
2019-Nov-21
11.3 LD
7.9
372
2019 VK
2019-Nov-21
5.8 LD
7.6
43
2019 WM
2019-Nov-21
7.8 LD
12.4
18
2008 EA9
2019-Nov-23
10.5 LD
2.2
10
2019 VF1
2019-Nov-25
13.3 LD
17.2
87
2017 AP4
2019-Dec-03
8.5 LD
7.5
15
2018 XW2
2019-Dec-07
17.4 LD
13
28
2019 VH5
2019-Dec-08
18 LD
9.8
71
216258
2019-Dec-20
15.3 LD
11.8
324
2013 XY20
2019-Dec-21
18.4 LD
1.9
28
2017 XQ60
2019-Dec-22
11 LD
15.6
47
310442
2019-Dec-26
19 LD
12.3
372
2019 AE3
2020-Jan-02
4.9 LD
8.2
13
2019 UO
2020-Jan-10
11.8 LD
9.4
373
2011 EP51
2020-Jan-15
19.6 LD
7.1
32
2017 RZ15
2020-Jan-15
12.1 LD
7.4
14
2009 BH2
2020-Jan-18
14.6 LD
17.9
118
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

Spaceweather.com welcomes these supporters of science communication: RV Sales and CRAS, the Conservatory of Recording Arts and Sciences and Windshield Replacement Phoenix and Breast Augmentation Phoenix and Dentist Chandler, AZ.

   
Look no further to find the best Comox Valley Real Estate listings and homes for sale
   
NASA Near Earth Asteroid Home Page
   
Chicago SEO Expert
   
Search Kelowna Real Estate Listings & Homes for Sale easily.
Find help on all Calgary Homes For Sale and Real Estate Listings. Great source for Edmonton Real Estate Listings & Homes For Sale
The best place for soundcloud followers buy is definitely BRSM.IO

To find reviews of new online casino sites in the UK try The Casino DB where there are hundreds of online casino reviews complete with bonuses and ratings.

Get a bonus when playing at a new casino in the UK. The Genie got you covered! 

Looking for a new online casino? Try Casimpo the new site dedicated to making online casino simple and easy for all.

  These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters!
  more links...
       
©2019 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips.
©2019 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved.