| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 1 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 3.2 nT Bz: -1.8 nT south more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2346 UT Coronal Holes: 07 Oct 21 There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th. Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar Updated at: SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2021 Oct 07 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 01 % | 01 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2021 Oct 07 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 20 % | MINOR | 05 % | 05 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 20 % | MINOR | 25 % | 30 % | SEVERE | 25 % | 25 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure! | | | POSSIBLE ANTARCTIC METEOR OUTBURST: The newly-discovered Arid meteor shower (described below) may have just produced an outburst over Antarctica. The University of Colorado Boulder operates a shortwave meteor radar at McMurdo Sound, and it detected a significant peak in meteor activity around 2300 UT on Oct. 6th. That matches the time Earth was expected to encounter a stream of debris from parent comet 15P/Finlay. A NEW METEOR SHOWER: For thousands of years, Comet 15P/Finlay has been dive-bombing Earth's orbit, leaving trails of dust on our planet's doorstep, yet, strangely, there has never been a meteor shower. Until now. On Sept. 27th, Earth hit a stream of debris from Comet Finlay, and a meteor shower was born. Above: An Arid meteor (inset) detected by the Cerro Tololo station of the CAMS Chile network on Sept. 29. [video] [more] "It is called the Arid meteor shower, because the meteors radiate from the far-southern constellation Ara, the Altar," explains Peter Jenniskens of the SETI Institute, whose meteor cameras in New Zealand and Chile detected the mini-outburst of 13 Arids. It's long overdue. Every 6 years, Finlay passes only 0.01 au from Earth's orbit. Somehow, we've dodged the debris. "This is the first time we've ever seen meteors from the comet," says Jenniskens. The shower might not be over. Earth is poised to hit another of Finlay's debris streams, and this one could trigger a storm. "We predict an encounter sometime between Oct. 6th at 2200 UT and Oct. 7th at 0100 UT," says astronomer Quanzhi Ye of the University of Maryland. "Forecasts range from ~50 to as many as 1100 meteors per hour." The debris was ejected by the comet in 2014 and 2015. In those years, something unexpected happened. Astronomers watching Finlay dive through the inner Solar System were surprised when the comet erupted--twice--more than quadrupling in brightness and producing massive jets of gas and dust. Above: Finlay's outburst in 2015 from "Bangs and Meteors from the Quiet Comet 15P/Finlay" by Ye et al. (Astrophysical Journal, Oct. 2015) "Somewhere between 100 million and a billion kilograms of material were ejected--about the mass of a small hill," says Ye, who has spent years studying Finlay and its debris. If Earth grazes this material, a meteor storm could occur. Unfortunately for sky watchers, the best place to see it is in Antarctica. However, the timing also favors observers in parts of South America. "Our cameras are well-positioned to record anything that happens," says Jenniskens. So stay tuned. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter STERLING SILVER MOONSTONE PENDANT: Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from space. Here's one floating 112,201 feet above Earth's surface onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon: You can have it for $142.95. The students are selling these Sterling silver pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Engraved with "I Love You More," it makes a great anniversary, birthday or (never too early!) Christmas gift. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the moonstone in flight. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Oct 07, 2021, the network reported 20 fireballs. (18 sporadics, 2 southern Taurids) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On October 7, 2021 there were 2221 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2021 TW2 | 2021-Oct-02 | 7.1 LD | 4.1 | 23 | 2021 SP5 | 2021-Oct-02 | 16.7 LD | 5.3 | 18 | 2021 TV1 | 2021-Oct-03 | 0.4 LD | 10.3 | 9 | 2021 SZ1 | 2021-Oct-03 | 2.3 LD | 13.7 | 18 | 2021 TG1 | 2021-Oct-03 | 0.8 LD | 11 | 8 | 2021 TB1 | 2021-Oct-04 | 17 LD | 5.1 | 26 | 2021 SV1 | 2021-Oct-04 | 6.8 LD | 8.9 | 18 | 2021 TK | 2021-Oct-04 | 6.9 LD | 8.1 | 22 | 2021 TC4 | 2021-Oct-05 | 14.9 LD | 5.4 | 18 | 2021 TR3 | 2021-Oct-05 | 3.4 LD | 10.3 | 29 | 2021 TY1 | 2021-Oct-05 | 18.4 LD | 10 | 31 | 2021 TM | 2021-Oct-05 | 1.8 LD | 14.2 | 12 | 2021 SE1 | 2021-Oct-05 | 8.6 LD | 4.3 | 18 | 2021 TQ3 | 2021-Oct-05 | 2 LD | 7.9 | 14 | 2021 SX4 | 2021-Oct-05 | 15.8 LD | 6.8 | 26 | 2021 ST | 2021-Oct-06 | 6 LD | 9.1 | 23 | 2021 RP12 | 2021-Oct-06 | 5 LD | 9.7 | 43 | 2021 TR1 | 2021-Oct-06 | 18.8 LD | 12.8 | 34 | 1998 SD9 | 2021-Oct-06 | 10.6 LD | 10.8 | 54 | 2021 TX1 | 2021-Oct-07 | 1.3 LD | 17.8 | 12 | 2015 TQ21 | 2021-Oct-07 | 10.7 LD | 20.7 | 12 | 2021 SD2 | 2021-Oct-07 | 5.7 LD | 6.6 | 15 | 2021 TZ1 | 2021-Oct-09 | 3.8 LD | 4.2 | 8 | 2021 TT1 | 2021-Oct-10 | 1 LD | 17.1 | 20 | 2021 RF5 | 2021-Oct-10 | 19.9 LD | 8.8 | 48 | 2021 TO3 | 2021-Oct-10 | 13 LD | 9.7 | 19 | 2021 TQ1 | 2021-Oct-10 | 3.1 LD | 5.4 | 8 | 2021 QF5 | 2021-Oct-11 | 15.4 LD | 7.1 | 62 | 2019 SE5 | 2021-Oct-11 | 16.3 LD | 6.6 | 16 | 2021 TY2 | 2021-Oct-11 | 10.2 LD | 5.2 | 15 | 2021 SF1 | 2021-Oct-12 | 6.2 LD | 3.4 | 13 | 2021 TN1 | 2021-Oct-12 | 7.5 LD | 3.6 | 19 | 2021 TS3 | 2021-Oct-14 | 10.9 LD | 4.2 | 13 | 2021 TC1 | 2021-Oct-14 | 14.6 LD | 6.6 | 31 | 2021 SM1 | 2021-Oct-14 | 6.9 LD | 7.2 | 27 | 2021 SM3 | 2021-Oct-15 | 13.2 LD | 16 | 96 | 2020 TH6 | 2021-Oct-19 | 7.3 LD | 5.9 | 6 | 2021 TX2 | 2021-Oct-19 | 9 LD | 10.7 | 33 | 1996 VB3 | 2021-Oct-20 | 8.8 LD | 15.3 | 135 | 2021 TV3 | 2021-Oct-21 | 13.3 LD | 12.8 | 47 | 2021 TE4 | 2021-Oct-21 | 8.3 LD | 6 | 15 | 2021 SG2 | 2021-Oct-21 | 15.9 LD | 5.9 | 25 | 2021 RE10 | 2021-Oct-21 | 15.5 LD | 5.1 | 56 | 2021 TE1 | 2021-Oct-23 | 9.5 LD | 12.5 | 47 | 2017 SJ20 | 2021-Oct-25 | 18.7 LD | 15.7 | 120 | 2019 UW6 | 2021-Oct-26 | 8 LD | 11.1 | 17 | 2009 WY7 | 2021-Nov-02 | 19.2 LD | 14.7 | 54 | 2017 TS3 | 2021-Nov-02 | 13.9 LD | 9.9 | 131 | 2005 VL1 | 2021-Nov-04 | 17 LD | 5.2 | 18 | 2020 KA | 2021-Nov-06 | 14.9 LD | 4.8 | 11 | 2021 SP3 | 2021-Nov-08 | 15.6 LD | 9.3 | 70 | 2019 XS | 2021-Nov-09 | 1.5 LD | 10.7 | 65 | 2017 WG14 | 2021-Nov-10 | 18.6 LD | 11.6 | 45 | 2007 VD138 | 2021-Nov-12 | 16 LD | 7.7 | 44 | 2004 UE | 2021-Nov-13 | 11.1 LD | 13.2 | 224 | 2016 VR | 2021-Nov-15 | 8 LD | 8.7 | 20 | 2010 VK139 | 2021-Nov-15 | 6.4 LD | 13.9 | 65 | 2019 VL5 | 2021-Nov-15 | 8.6 LD | 8 | 23 | 2016 JG12 | 2021-Nov-20 | 14.4 LD | 7.5 | 112 | 2021 KH2 | 2021-Nov-21 | 19.3 LD | 6.5 | 31 | 3361 | 2021-Nov-21 | 15.1 LD | 8.1 | 511 | 2014 WF201 | 2021-Nov-24 | 13.2 LD | 5.5 | 27 | 2009 WB105 | 2021-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 | 2019 BB5 | 2021-Nov-25 | 18.8 LD | 8.3 | 16 | 1994 WR12 | 2021-Nov-29 | 16.1 LD | 8.8 | 123 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation: Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time. Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes: In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! 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