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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
 
Solar wind
speed: 423.8 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C7
1750 UT Mar02
24-hr: M2
1739 UT Mar02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT
Daily Sun: 02 Mar 22
Expand: labels | no labels
Sunspot AR2957 merits watching. It is growing rapidly. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 62
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 02 Mar 2022

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2022 total: 0 days (0%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 02 Mar 2022


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 11.15
x1010 W Cool
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 02 Mar 2022

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 99 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 02 Mar 2022

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +7.6% High
48-hr change: +1.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 02 Mar 2022 @ 1700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2
quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.5 nT
Bz: 1.8 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT
Coronal Holes: 02 Mar 22

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole could reach Earth on March 4-5.
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern season for noctilucent clouds is over. It ended on Feb. 20, 2022, concluding the weakest NLC season in 14 years. The northern season will begin in late May..
Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar
Updated at:
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2022 Mar 02 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
35 %
35 %
CLASS X
05 %
05 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2022 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
20 %
MINOR
01 %
05 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
25 %
SEVERE
20 %
25 %
 
Wednesday, Mar. 2, 2022
What's up in space
       
 

Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure!

 

FARSIDE SUNSPOT: NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a large ultraviolet hotspot behind the sun's northeastern limb. It is definitely a concentration of hot plasma and magnetic fields; it might be an active sunspot. We will soon find out as it rotates into view before the end of the week. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

THE TERMINATION EVENT HAS ARRIVED: Something big just happened on the sun. Solar physicists Scott McIntosh (NCAR) and Bob Leamon (U. Maryland-Baltimore County) call it "The Termination Event."

"Old Solar Cycle 24 has finally died--it was terminated!" says McIntosh. "Now the new solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, can really take off."

The "Termination Event" is a new idea in solar physics, outlined by McIntosh and Leamon in a December 2020 paper in the journal Solar Physics. Not everyone accepts it--yet. If Solar Cycle 25 unfolds as McIntosh and Leamon predict, the Termination Event will have to be taken seriously.


Above: Predictions for Solar Cycle 25. Blue is the official prediction of a weak cycle. Red is a new prediction based on the Termination Event.

The basic idea is this: Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) started in Dec. 2019. However, old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) refused to go away. It hung on for two more years, producing occasional old-cycle sunspots and clogging the sun's upper layers with its decaying magnetic field.  During this time, the two cycles coexisted, SC25 struggling to break free while old SC24 held it back.

"Solar Cycle 24 was cramping Solar Cycle 25's style," says Leamon.

Researchers have long known that solar cycles can overlap. The twist added by McIntosh and Leamon is the realization that overlapping cycles can interact. This makes sense. In the early 20th century, George Ellery Hale discovered that the magnetic polarity of sunspot pairs reverses itself from one cycle to the next; indeed, the sun's entire global magnetic field flips every ~11 years. When adjacent, opposite-polarity solar cycles overlap, they naturally interfere.

Termination Events mark the end of interference, when a new cycle can break free of the old.


Above: Bands of coronal bright points linked to old Solar Cycle 24 vanished in Dec. 2021, signalling a Termination Event. A Twitter thread from Scott McIntosh explains this in more detail.

The timing of the Termination Event can predict the intensity of the new cycle. In their Solar Physics paper, McIntosh and Leamon looked back over 270 years of sunspot data and found that Termination Events happen every 10 to 15 years.

"We noticed that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle would be," explains Leamon. "Conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle would be."

So when did the latest Termination Event happen? Dec. 2021. This yields a specific, testable prediction for Solar Cycle 25.

"We have finalized our forecast of SC25's amplitude," says McIntosh. "It will be just above the historical average with a monthly smoothed sunspot number of 190 ± 20."

"Above average" may not sound exciting, but this is in fact a sharp departure from NOAA's official forecast of a weak solar cycle. It could be just enough to catapult Terminators into the forefront of solar cycle prediction techniques. Stay tuned. We'll be back.

A sharable version of this story is available here.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

STERLING SILVER RAINBOW DRAGONFLY: Are you looking for a far out gift? Consider the Rainbow Dragonfly. On Jan 28th, this sterling silver pendant hitched a ride onboard an Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray research balloon:

You can have it for $172.95. The dragonfly's heart is a Celtic love knot, and its wings are decorated with a spray of rainbow-colored crystals. This item is 100% 925 sterling silver, lead-free, nickel-free, cadmium-free, and totally hypoallergenic.

The students are selling dragonfly pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the pendant in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education


Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free:
Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Mar 02, 2022, the network reported 6 fireballs.
(6 sporadics)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

  Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On March 2, 2022 there were 2270 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2022 DH
2022-Feb-25
2.8 LD
7.1
11
2022 DF
2022-Feb-25
10.5 LD
7.8
47
2022 DW1
2022-Feb-25
7.9 LD
12.9
31
2022 DC
2022-Feb-25
12.2 LD
6.8
34
2021 QO2
2022-Feb-25
20 LD
11
65
2022 DR1
2022-Feb-25
9.8 LD
3.4
13
2022 DS4
2022-Feb-26
6.4 LD
10.9
36
2022 DL1
2022-Feb-26
1.7 LD
9.4
7
2022 DD3
2022-Feb-26
4.9 LD
4.1
9
2022 DW
2022-Feb-26
4.5 LD
19.8
17
2022 DT2
2022-Feb-26
6.9 LD
13.3
27
2022 DO3
2022-Feb-27
0.3 LD
15
14
2022 DA2
2022-Feb-27
2.7 LD
26.4
19
2022 EK
2022-Feb-27
18.6 LD
6.8
17
2022 DX1
2022-Feb-27
4.7 LD
7.6
10
2022 DL
2022-Feb-27
18.8 LD
12.4
44
2022 DH3
2022-Feb-27
10.4 LD
12.4
33
2022 DQ2
2022-Feb-28
1.2 LD
20.3
33
2022 DT4
2022-Feb-28
3.6 LD
7.1
20
2022 DK2
2022-Feb-28
3.1 LD
16.6
12
2020 UO4
2022-Feb-28
18.5 LD
2.1
7
2022 EB
2022-Feb-28
2 LD
11.5
16
2022 DQ1
2022-Mar-01
7.5 LD
8.5
14
2022 DC4
2022-Mar-01
1 LD
14.1
14
2022 DY2
2022-Mar-01
1.1 LD
15.5
7
2022 DA3
2022-Mar-01
3.5 LD
10.4
10
2022 DE3
2022-Mar-02
2 LD
6.9
9
2022 DM4
2022-Mar-02
0.7 LD
9.1
5
2022 EG
2022-Mar-02
4.4 LD
7.5
33
2022 EE
2022-Mar-02
10.2 LD
8.3
28
2022 EJ
2022-Mar-02
16.6 LD
17
52
2022 DM1
2022-Mar-02
17.9 LD
6.7
17
2022 DN1
2022-Mar-03
11.4 LD
10
19
2022 DK1
2022-Mar-03
9.7 LD
6.4
23
2022 DC1
2022-Mar-03
13.4 LD
8.3
17
138971
2022-Mar-04
12.8 LD
12
742
2021 UL7
2022-Mar-04
11.5 LD
2
25
2022 DR4
2022-Mar-04
17.5 LD
11.2
30
2022 DO4
2022-Mar-05
3.5 LD
11.1
18
2022 EA
2022-Mar-05
3.4 LD
15.7
18
2022 DT3
2022-Mar-06
9.8 LD
19.5
22
2022 DO1
2022-Mar-06
6.6 LD
13.9
15
2020 DC
2022-Mar-06
3.9 LD
4.9
16
2022 DH1
2022-Mar-07
18 LD
7
45
2022 DS3
2022-Mar-09
13.4 LD
3.7
15
2021 EY1
2022-Mar-10
10.1 LD
15.5
16
2015 DR215
2022-Mar-11
17.5 LD
8.3
290
2009 DV43
2022-Mar-11
8.2 LD
16.5
65
2022 DX2
2022-Mar-13
15.8 LD
12.7
37
2022 DR3
2022-Mar-13
15.6 LD
12.4
32
2018 GY
2022-Mar-13
11.9 LD
10.7
43
2022 BX1
2022-Mar-13
20.1 LD
11
161
2022 DP3
2022-Mar-15
3 LD
10.8
45
2022 DB2
2022-Mar-18
11 LD
8.6
52
2016 FZ12
2022-Mar-19
2.2 LD
8.3
16
2022 DX
2022-Mar-19
8.5 LD
1.5
8
2022 DG3
2022-Mar-21
18.3 LD
7.2
37
2020 SQ
2022-Mar-21
2.8 LD
6
12
2013 BO76
2022-Mar-24
13.3 LD
13.8
271
2011 GE3
2022-Mar-26
7.6 LD
7
22
2012 FX35
2022-Mar-26
13.7 LD
5.9
25
2010 GD35
2022-Mar-29
17.7 LD
12.5
43
2020 FW5
2022-Mar-30
8.9 LD
13.1
27
2007 FF1
2022-Apr-01
19.4 LD
12.8
155
2021 GN1
2022-Apr-02
14.4 LD
14.3
19
2016 GW221
2022-Apr-02
9.8 LD
5.9
41
2012 TV
2022-Apr-05
19.2 LD
18.1
32
2020 GH1
2022-Apr-09
16.8 LD
7.2
28
2017 TO2
2022-Apr-10
17.9 LD
11.6
78
363599
2022-Apr-12
19.3 LD
24.5
221
2020 TQ6
2022-Apr-18
13.4 LD
15.4
43
2017 UR2
2022-Apr-22
19.4 LD
9.3
10
2020 VN1
2022-Apr-25
19.3 LD
2.3
9
418135
2022-Apr-28
8.5 LD
10.4
443
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.

Latest results (Nov. 2021): Our balloons have just measured a sudden drop in atmospheric radiation. It happened during the strong geomagnetic storms of Nov. 3-4, 2021. Here are the data:

This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century.  It happens when a CME from the sun sweeps past Earth and literally pushes cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth's upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.

We have measured Forbush decreases before. For example, here's one from Sept. 2014. The Forbush Decrease of Nov. 3-4, 2021, was the deepest in the history of our 7-year atmospheric monitoring program. Radiation levels in the stratosphere over California dropped nearly 20%, more than doubling the previous record from our dataset. 

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes, so we can sample radiation where planes fly. This plot shows how the Forbush decrease was restricted to the stratosphere; it did not affect lower levels of the atmosphere:

The dose rates shown above are expressed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.

.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) link cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.

.Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

  Essential web links
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  The official U.S. government space weather bureau
Atmospheric Optics
  The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena.
Solar Dynamics Observatory
  Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever.
STEREO
  3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
  Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO.
SolarMonitor.org
  information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary
Daily Sunspot Summaries
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA 27-Day Space Weather Forecasts
  fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong.
Aurora 30 min forecast
  from the NOAA Space Environment Center
Live Aurora Webcam
  from Lights over Lapland
Heliophysics
  the underlying science of space weather

To get the best views of the cosmos, check out the Phoenix Window Glass Replacement experts for all your window and glass needs

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To get an up close view of the heavenly bodies surrounding Earth, think about selling your junk car for cash and buying a high quality telescope.
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