:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 17 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1054 (N15W37) was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area. Region 1056 (N17E46) was numbered
today and is magnetically classified as a Beta.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next
three days (18-20 March).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes for the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes
between 0300Z - 0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft showed elevated velocities around 520 km/s and densities
around (1-3 p/cc). These signatures are consistent with a coronal
hole high-speed stream, presumably from the northward extension of
the southern polar coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (18 March)
due to the arrival of a partial-halo CME observed on 13 March.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days two
and three (19-20 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 087
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  087/087/088
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/05
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/05
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01