Meteor Activity Outlook
Sept. 29 - Oct. 5, 2000
contributed by Robert Lunsford
Secretary General of the International Meteor Organization

If you are new to meteor-watching, you may wish to consult our Meteor Glossary
as you read this week's forecast.

The moon has just passed its "new" phase and has entered the evening sky. The waxing crescent moon will be higher in the sky and brighter each night and will reach one half illuminated (first quarter) on October 5. This will increase the lunar interference to evening observers but morning observers will find that the moon has set before they begin observing. All radiant positions listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning September 30/October 1. The positions do not change greatly day to day so these positions may be used during this entire period.

The Antihelion radiant is now located at 01:32 (023) +09 (what does this mean?). This position is in eastern Pisces just a few degrees west of the 4th magnitude star Omicron Piscium. This position lies directly between the Northern and Southern Taurid radiants. It is impossible to separate these three radiants by visual means. I would suggest categorizing any meteor that appears to radiate from northern Pisces and western Aries as NTA and those radiating from southern Pisces and northern Cetus as STA. The Northern Taurids are located at 1:28 (022) +11 while the Southern Taurids are located at 1:36 (023) +05. Shower members are all slow and the brighter ones tend to fragment. The combined rates will be low during most of October (1-2/hr) but as we approach November the Earth will encounter debris from comet Encke and the combined Taurid rates will increase to 5-10/hr. This area of the sky is best placed due south near 0200 local daylight time.

The Orionids are located 05:28 (082) +13. This position lies in extreme northern Orion near the Taurus border. Activity is just now starting so rates from this source are expected to be low, less than 1 shower member per hour. Like the other morning sources the Orionids are swift meteors. The radiant is best placed near dawn when it lies highest in the sky. (The maximum of the Orionid meteor shower will be on Oct 21st, when stargazers can spot about 20 shooting stars/hour.)

The Delta Aurigids are located at 05:36 (084) +49. This position lies in northern Auriga directly between the bright star Capella and the much dimmer Delta Aurigae. This area of the sky lies in the northeastern sky during the evening hours and is best placed nearly overhead at dawn. Like the Orionids these meteors are swift. Hourly rates this week are not expected to be impressive with perhaps 1-2 shower members being seen each hour during the moonless morning hours.

The Northern Apex source is now located at 06:32 (098) +38. This position lies in a remote area of eastern Auriga. Since this radiant is diffuse any meteors from the eastern half of Auriga or northern Gemini would be a good candidate. Care must be taken when distinguishing these meteors from those of the Delta Aurigids. Both of these sources produce swift meteors. As seen from the Northern Hemisphere this source should be quite active producing 4-5 meteors per hour near dawn. From the Southern Hemisphere this source would be much lower in the sky and only producing 1-2 meteors per hour.

The Southern Apex source lies exactly 30 degrees south of its northern counterpart at 06:32 (098) +08. This position lies just a few degrees southwest of the well known "Rosette Nebula" in the constellation of Monoceros. Any swift meteor from eastern Orion, Monoceros, or southern Gemini has a good chance of being from this source. As seen from the Northern Hemisphere this source should produce 3-4 meteors per hour near dawn. Similar rates would be seen from the Southern Hemisphere.

Sporadic meteor rates for the Northern Hemisphere are at their annual maximum. Expected rates of these random meteors would be 2-3 per hour during the moonlit evening hours and perhaps up to 10 per hour during the dark morning hours as seen from rural areas.  

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