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MAGNETIC STORMS IN THE OFFING: A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 27th. The onset of the solar wind could kick off 3 days of polar geomagnetic activity, boosted to G1-storm levels by the glancing impact of a CME on Nov. 29th (described below). Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead. Free: Aurora Alerts.
GLANCING BLOW CME: On Nov. 25th, a filament of magnetism in the sun's northern hemisphere exploded. The blast opened a "canyon of fire" in the sun's atmosphere and hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. This movie from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the expanding cloud:
The CME is not heading directly for Earth. However, NOAA analysts have modeled its trajectory and they say that the expanding cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on Nov. 29th. If so, it might add energy to polar geomagnetic storms already in progress due to the earlier arrival of a solar wind stream. Stay tuned for improved forecasts as the CME approaches. Free: Aurora Alerts.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
A CRYSTAL BALL IN THE STRATOSPHERE: For the first time ever, a crystal ball has visited the stratosphere. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it on Oct. 19, 2017--a combination optics experiment and fundraiser. Watch the video as the crystal orb travels onboard a giant helium balloon 93,000 feet above Earth's surface, stretching, focusing, and inverting the incredible landscape of the Sierra Nevada mountains behind it:
This 800 gram crystal ball contains an embedded model of the Solar System, including the sun, eight planets and their moons. It makes an incredible gift for anyone interested in space.
We have flown only a small number of these heavyweight crystal balls. You can have one for $199. Each crystal ball comes with a unique gift card showing the item at the edge of space and telling the story of its flight. It also comes with a complementary crystal stand so you can display this unique keepsake on a desktop or shelf. QUANTITIES ARE LIMITED.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All proceeds support hands-on STEM education
A LOCAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Space weather forecasters and aurora chasers often talk about the "planetary K index" (Kp). It's like a Richter Scale for geomagnetic storms, ranking global geomagnetic activity with numbers ranging from 0 (low) to 9 (extreme). When Kp shoots above 5, a storm is in progress and auroras ring the Arctic Circle. When Kp is near 0, you wouldn't expect to see anything. Yet on Nov. 24th, Kp was 0 when aurora tour guide Oliver Wright witnessed a magnificent display over Abisko, Sweden:
"The sky went completely crazy with vivid greens and pinks," says Wright. "Totally not what we expecting to see with the Kp score as low as it was. "
What happened? Wright himself solved the mystery: "We have just been looking at magnetometer data from the nearby town of Kiruna. Locally, there was a magnetic disturbance corresponding to a K index of 7--a strong geomagnetic storm. It just goes to show how geomagnetic activity can be much more localized than expected."
Indeed, this episode and others like it highlight a shortcoming of space weather forecasting: For decades, analysts have used a global index (Kp) to express forecasts of regional activity. It would be like a terrestrial weather forecaster announcing "there is a chance of rain today around the Arctic Circle." Okay. But where around the Arctic Circle?
Regional forecasting of geomagnetic effects is a relatively new frontier in space weather research. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and its university partners are starting to make strides in this area. For instance, experimental Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps show realtime estimates of geomagnetic activity in a five-by-five degree polar grid, providing more local information than ever before. Try watching the movies the next time a "planetary" geomagnetic storm is in progress; the regional information may surprise you.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov. 26, 2017, the network reported 29 fireballs.
(25 sporadics, 2 Geminids, 2 November omega Orionids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On November 26, 2017 there were 1853 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2017 WC | 2017-Nov-20 | 2.9 LD | 7.6 | 23 |
2017 WB1 | 2017-Nov-20 | 2 LD | 9.4 | 10 |
2017 WV1 | 2017-Nov-21 | 2.6 LD | 7.4 | 7 |
2017 WW1 | 2017-Nov-21 | 0.4 LD | 12.7 | 4 |
2017 WA14 | 2017-Nov-21 | 0.2 LD | 16.4 | 11 |
2017 VD13 | 2017-Nov-22 | 13.2 LD | 16.4 | 36 |
2017 VA15 | 2017-Nov-22 | 8.1 LD | 6.4 | 35 |
2017 VZ14 | 2017-Nov-24 | 3.2 LD | 8.4 | 35 |
2017 WZ13 | 2017-Nov-25 | 6.9 LD | 11 | 18 |
2017 WT12 | 2017-Nov-25 | 3 LD | 14.7 | 13 |
2017 VY13 | 2017-Nov-25 | 2 LD | 10.5 | 18 |
2017 WH13 | 2017-Nov-26 | 1.7 LD | 11.4 | 16 |
2017 WQ13 | 2017-Nov-26 | 12.7 LD | 9.5 | 20 |
2017 WC14 | 2017-Nov-27 | 7.3 LD | 11.1 | 25 |
2017 WK1 | 2017-Nov-28 | 7.8 LD | 8 | 14 |
2017 WH2 | 2017-Nov-30 | 6.4 LD | 16.7 | 49 |
2008 WM61 | 2017-Dec-02 | 3.7 LD | 4.7 | 16 |
2017 WS13 | 2017-Dec-05 | 9.5 LD | 11.3 | 41 |
2017 WV12 | 2017-Dec-09 | 3.4 LD | 10.6 | 27 |
2017 WE13 | 2017-Dec-12 | 16.4 LD | 5.4 | 28 |
2017 VS14 | 2017-Dec-12 | 15.9 LD | 2.8 | 15 |
2015 XX169 | 2017-Dec-14 | 9.7 LD | 6.3 | 11 |
2017 VT14 | 2017-Dec-17 | 3.8 LD | 10.4 | 105 |
2011 YD29 | 2017-Dec-19 | 17.6 LD | 7.7 | 20 |
2006 XY | 2017-Dec-20 | 6.5 LD | 5 | 56 |
2017 WX12 | 2017-Dec-21 | 10 LD | 11.6 | 128 |
2017 TS3 | 2017-Dec-22 | 18.1 LD | 10.2 | 136 |
418849 | 2017-Dec-22 | 15.3 LD | 17.4 | 257 |
2015 YQ1 | 2017-Dec-22 | 17.3 LD | 11.1 | 9 |
2017 QL33 | 2017-Dec-30 | 13.3 LD | 8.2 | 191 |
2015 RT1 | 2018-Jan-02 | 19.7 LD | 9 | 30 |
2004 FH | 2018-Jan-10 | 20 LD | 8.5 | 26 |
306383 | 2018-Jan-22 | 14.4 LD | 17.4 | 178 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
Readers, thank you for your patience while we continue to develop this new section of Spaceweather.com. We've been working to streamline our data reduction, allowing us to post results from balloon flights much more rapidly, and we have developed a new data product, shown here:
This plot displays radiation measurements not only in the stratosphere, but also at aviation altitudes. Dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. These measurements are made by our usual cosmic ray payload as it passes through aviation altitudes en route to the stratosphere over California.
What is this all about? Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 13% since 2015:
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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