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GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Multiple CMEs have left the sun this week, perhaps more than a dozen. The majority are on a trajectory due south of Earth. If the edge of even one grazes Earth's magnetic field, it could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Potential impacts are likely to begin on April 25th. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
A SUPER-SYMPATHETIC SOLAR FLARE: What are the odds? This morning, April 23rd (0330 UT), NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory watched four regions on the sun separated by hundreds of thousands of kilometers explode almost simultaneously. Play the movie and pay attention to the circled areas:
Play the movie!
The quadruple blast included three sunspots (small circles) and a magnetic filament (big circle), all erupting within minutes of one another. (The filament eruption is more obvious in this 304 Å movie.) Their combined X-ray output added up to category M3.6.
Events like this are called "sympathetic solar flares"--pairs of explosions that occur almost simultaneously in widely-spaced active regions. Long ago, researchers assumed the eruptions were just freak coincidence, but a 2002 study proved otherwise. Some sunspots are linked by nearly-invisible magnetic loops in the sun's corona. Instabilities can rapidly travel from one to another, creating a chain reaction of explosions.
Today's sympathetic flare was not a simple pair but a complex quartet covering much of the sun's Earth-facing hemisphere. This makes it "super-sympathetic." It is reminiscent of the Great Eruption of August 1, 2010, which included more than a dozen shock waves, flares, and filament eruptions spanning 180 degrees of solar longitude.
Will any of the debris hit Earth? SOHO coronagraph images of the blast are now available, but the results are unclear Many faint overlapping CMEs can be seen leaving the sun in the hours after the quadruple eruption. If any are heading our way (a big IF), they would arrive on or about April 26th. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
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A POTENTIALLY GOOD (OR EVEN GREAT) COMET: Comets are famously unpredictable. For every one that becomes a naked-eye object, there are dozens that fizzle and disappoint. Despite this track record, astronomers have a standard formula they regularly use to predict the brightness of incoming comets, and according to that formula, this dim fuzzball could become a good (or even great) comet later this year:
"This is Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS (C/2023 A3) sporting a short tail as it makes it's way toward the sun," says photographer Johnny Barton of Robinson, Texas. "At the moment it is faint. For comparison, the brightest star in the triangle below the comet is magnitude 9.6."
If the most optimistic estimates are correct, this comet could become as bright as Sirius or even Venus when it passes near Earth in October 2024. This rosy forecast depends in part on forward scattering to boost the comet's brightness. Forward scattering happens when a comet is almost directly between Earth and the sun. Dust in the comet's atmosphere can scatter sunlight toward Earth, making the comet seem extra bright. The same thing happened to Comet McNaught in 2007, making it visible in broad daylight.
Adding to the unpredictability is Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS's origin. It comes from the Oort cloud and is visiting the sun for the first time. Fresh comets are the most unpredictable of all. We can't be sure how they will respond to their first dose of intense sunlight; a previous Comet ATLAS completely fell apart. So go ahead and mark your calendar for October 2024, but maybe use pencil.
Meanwhile, amateur astronomers are encouraged to monitor Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS. It is shining like a 10th magnitude star in the constellation Virgo. Observing tips!
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A FAR-OUT MOTHER'S DAY GIFT: Mother's Day is less than 3 weeks away. Are you looking for a far-out gift? Mom will love Snoopy at the Edge of Space. Here is the hand-crafted figurine floating 112,505 feet above Earth's surface on Jan. 30, 2024:
You can have it for $159.95. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched the figurine to the stratosphere onboard a cosmic ray research balloon. It spent more than 2 hours floating at the top of Earth's atmosphere while cosmic ray sensors gathered data. Snoopy had a wild ride, and the students got great data for their atmospheric radiation monitoring program.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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Every night, a network of
NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Apr 22, 2024, the network reported 36 fireballs.
(20 Lyrids, 16 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (
PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding
new ones all the time.
On April 23, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
|
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) |
2024 FF4 | 2024-Apr-18 | 16.1 LD | 13 | 51 |
2024 GJ6 | 2024-Apr-18 | 2.5 LD | 8.1 | 9 |
2024 GA6 | 2024-Apr-18 | 2.7 LD | 7.1 | 12 |
2023 HU3 | 2024-Apr-18 | 15.9 LD | 19.1 | 35 |
2024 GL5 | 2024-Apr-18 | 16.7 LD | 11.7 | 26 |
2024 FU4 | 2024-Apr-19 | 19.2 LD | 7.5 | 29 |
2024 GP7 | 2024-Apr-19 | 7.4 LD | 3.6 | 11 |
2021 JW2 | 2024-Apr-19 | 1.6 LD | 5.1 | 11 |
2024 HQ | 2024-Apr-19 | 0.8 LD | 7.5 | 5 |
2017 SA20 | 2024-Apr-19 | 3.8 LD | 6.2 | 8 |
2024 FT4 | 2024-Apr-19 | 19.3 LD | 5.2 | 21 |
2024 HL | 2024-Apr-19 | 4.8 LD | 19.7 | 17 |
2024 GD5 | 2024-Apr-20 | 13.8 LD | 4.5 | 14 |
2024 GF6 | 2024-Apr-20 | 2.3 LD | 8.2 | 15 |
2024 HR | 2024-Apr-20 | 19.1 LD | 17.7 | 44 |
2024 HD | 2024-Apr-21 | 5.9 LD | 5.6 | 14 |
2024 GM | 2024-Apr-21 | 18.7 LD | 10.8 | 89 |
2024 GW3 | 2024-Apr-21 | 19.5 LD | 13.3 | 39 |
2024 HY | 2024-Apr-22 | 5.7 LD | 9.2 | 75 |
2024 HS | 2024-Apr-23 | 19.5 LD | 5.7 | 26 |
2021 VH2 | 2024-Apr-25 | 9.3 LD | 2.7 | 6 |
2024 FG5 | 2024-Apr-26 | 12.5 LD | 9.1 | 35 |
2024 HT | 2024-Apr-26 | 17.3 LD | 9.4 | 30 |
2024 GR1 | 2024-Apr-27 | 19.6 LD | 7.2 | 52 |
2024 HF1 | 2024-Apr-28 | 5.1 LD | 10.9 | 25 |
2024 GS4 | 2024-Apr-28 | 10.6 LD | 12.8 | 33 |
2024 GK5 | 2024-Apr-29 | 12.9 LD | 5.2 | 39 |
2021 GD3 | 2024-Apr-30 | 11.2 LD | 3.5 | 14 |
2022 TN1 | 2024-Apr-30 | 18.6 LD | 17.7 | 314 |
2022 AA5 | 2024-May-02 | 12 LD | 8.9 | 67 |
2024 FR5 | 2024-May-05 | 4.9 LD | 5.2 | 49 |
2021 JG9 | 2024-May-10 | 16.9 LD | 16.1 | 32 |
2016 FT14 | 2024-May-10 | 19.9 LD | 5.9 | 39 |
2015 KJ19 | 2024-May-14 | 15.8 LD | 23.1 | 112 |
2014 WF6 | 2024-May-14 | 7.2 LD | 18.9 | 47 |
2021 JN10 | 2024-May-14 | 17.5 LD | 13.2 | 33 |
2021 JJ | 2024-May-15 | 17.2 LD | 5.8 | 28 |
2022 WN2 | 2024-May-17 | 13.7 LD | 5.5 | 6 |
2019 VB5 | 2024-May-21 | 7.8 LD | 6.3 | 2 |
2024 HP | 2024-May-23 | 15.4 LD | 7.7 | 209 |
2008 LD | 2024-May-28 | 7.7 LD | 4.5 | 6 |
2021 LV | 2024-May-29 | 12 LD | 15.5 | 9 |
1998 KY26 | 2024-Jun-01 | 12 LD | 5.3 | 25 |
2016 JC6 | 2024-Jun-01 | 19.9 LD | 7.1 | 188 |
2008 YN2 | 2024-Jun-05 | 10.5 LD | 7.7 | 20 |
2021 LW3 | 2024-Jun-06 | 9.7 LD | 9.8 | 86 |
2024 CR9 | 2024-Jun-11 | 19.2 LD | 7.4 | 447 |
2022 XC1 | 2024-Jun-12 | 16.5 LD | 6.5 | 21 |
2022 WW11 | 2024-Jun-17 | 19.7 LD | 14.4 | 15 |
Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 7 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (July 2022): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2022. Our latest measurements in July 2022 registered a 6-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
| The official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
| Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory |
| Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
| current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
| Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
| from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
| the underlying science of space weather |
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